Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Square closed ₩290,000, missing all criteria; Level 2 removal effectively confirmed, with KRX disclosure expected ~8 p.m. Seoul, effective from tomorrow’s open.</li>
<li>Square vs Hynix hinges on retail chase structurally, but near‑term Square’s underperformance worsened by asymmetric leverage shackles.</li>
<li>Square’s Level 2 setup ends tomorrow; flows normalize, likely giving Square more juice vs Hynix. Key spot to watch from tomorrow’s open.</li>
</ul>


Square closed ₩290,000, missing all criteria; Level 2 removal effectively confirmed, with KRX disclosure expected ~8 p.m. Seoul, effective from tomorrow’s open.
Square vs Hynix hinges on retail chase structurally, but near‑term Square’s underperformance worsened by asymmetric leverage shackles.
Square’s Level 2 setup ends tomorrow; flows normalize, likely giving Square more juice vs Hynix. Key spot to watch from tomorrow’s open.


Square’s Level 2 Leverage Caps End Tomorrow — Fresh Near‑term Factor in the Square Vs Hynix Setup

<ul>
<li>Retail flow drove the ratio: selling pushed it higher, buying dragged it lower. Pre‑Sept they dip‑bought and flipped; since late Sept they’ve chased longs, fueling Hynix’s rally.</li>
<li>Instos joined retail chasing Hynix, juicing momentum; KRX’s investment‑alert acts as a speed bump, likely cooling hot‑money flows and tilting the ratio in Square’s favor.</li>
<li>But retail still drives Hynix; until they cool off, Square NAV squeeze is early. A sector‑wide AI pivot cooling retail frenzy is the real catalyst, bigger than KRX’s alert.</li>
</ul>


Retail flow drove the ratio: selling pushed it higher, buying dragged it lower. Pre‑Sept they dip‑bought and flipped; since late Sept they’ve chased longs, fueling Hynix’s rally.
Instos joined retail chasing Hynix, juicing momentum; KRX’s investment‑alert acts as a speed bump, likely cooling hot‑money flows and tilting the ratio in Square’s favor.
But retail still drives Hynix; until they cool off, Square NAV squeeze is early. A sector‑wide AI pivot cooling retail frenzy is the real catalyst, bigger than KRX’s alert.


Reading the Latest Flow Patterns to Time a SK Square NAV Squeeze Trade

<ul>
<li>KOFIA says Hynix hit 10.89% weight in October vs 8.37% in September, lifting the 10% fund cap — now local funds can size up like Samsung Electronics.</li>
<li>SK Square might have been dumped today as locals unwound proxy trades; with Hynix freed from the 10% cap, funds rotated directly into Hynix, front‑running the shift.</li>
<li>Key now is rotation size; SK Square’s beta‑plus trade to Hynix is fading, and near term we should expect relative underperformance as flows migrate.</li>
</ul>


KOFIA says Hynix hit 10.89% weight in October vs 8.37% in September, lifting the 10% fund cap — now local funds can size up like Samsung Electronics.
SK Square might have been dumped today as locals unwound proxy trades; with Hynix freed from the 10% cap, funds rotated directly into Hynix, front‑running the shift.
Key now is rotation size; SK Square’s beta‑plus trade to Hynix is fading, and near term we should expect relative underperformance as flows migrate.


Intel on Today’s SK Square Price Action: Rotation Flow Triggered by Hynix’s 10% Fund Cap Removal

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>On 29 October, SK Square announced that it is selling its stake in 11st to SK Planet. This is likely to have a slightly negative impact on SK Square.</li>
<li>Given SK Planet's limited financial resources, it is likely that SK Square will provide funding to SK Planet through a capital increase.</li>
<li>However, the biggest factor driving SK Square's share price right now is the continued surge in SK Hynix's share price. </li>
</ul>


On 29 October, SK Square announced that it is selling its stake in 11st to SK Planet. This is likely to have a slightly negative impact on SK Square.
Given SK Planet's limited financial resources, it is likely that SK Square will provide funding to SK Planet through a capital increase.
However, the biggest factor driving SK Square's share price right now is the continued surge in SK Hynix's share price. 


SK Square: Selling Its Stake in 11st to SK Planet

<ul>
<li>The MTD Reply may help Hynix secure dismissal, but its arguments on quarterly pricing upside and HBM’s outsized margins could reinforce peak out concerns and increase antitrust risk.</li>
<li>Chey appears to be pushing back against HBM peak out concerns by accelerating capex and reinforcing management’s confidence in sustained HBM and AI demand.</li>
<li>Hynix may accelerate ADR expansion ahead of the Solidigm IPO, using deeper US market ties as a shield against regulatory risk.</li>
</ul>


The MTD Reply may help Hynix secure dismissal, but its arguments on quarterly pricing upside and HBM’s outsized margins could reinforce peak out concerns and increase antitrust risk.
Chey appears to be pushing back against HBM peak out concerns by accelerating capex and reinforcing management’s confidence in sustained HBM and AI demand.
Hynix may accelerate ADR expansion ahead of the Solidigm IPO, using deeper US market ties as a shield against regulatory risk.


October 7 MTD Reply: A Paradoxical Setup for Hynix

South Korea

SK Square Co., Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company invests in semiconductors, information and communications technologies, and other industries. SK Square conducts businesses in South Korea.

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SK Square (402340 KS)

Square’s Level 2 Leverage Caps End Tomorrow — Fresh Near‑term Factor in the Square Vs Hynix Setup

This post examines Square’s Level 2 leverage caps coming off tomorrow — fresh near‑term catalyst in the Square vs Hynix setup.

Sanghyun Park

Reading the Latest Flow Patterns to Time a SK Square NAV Squeeze Trade

This post looks into the recent flow dynamics and positioning trends to assess when it makes sense to put on a NAV discount-squeeze trade in SK...

Sanghyun Park

Intel on Today’s SK Square Price Action: Rotation Flow Triggered by Hynix’s 10% Fund Cap Removal

This post provides an intel on today’s SK Square price action: rotation flow triggered by the removal of Hynix’s 10% fund cap.

Sanghyun Park

SK Square: Selling Its Stake in 11st to SK Planet

On 29 October, SK Square announced that it is selling its stake in 11st to SK Planet. This is likely to have a slightly negative impact on SK Square.

Douglas Kim

October 7 MTD Reply: A Paradoxical Setup for Hynix

This post examines how the October 7 MTD Reply creates a paradoxical setup for Hynix, helping the legal defense while adding pressure on the stock.

Sanghyun Park

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