Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 22nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD25.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Bluescope Steel, CSL, Wesfarmers, Northern Star Resources, Lottery.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 22nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD25.6bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Bluescope Steel, CSL, Wesfarmers, Northern Star Resources, Lottery.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 22nd): Bluescope Steel, CSL, Wesfarmers, Northern Star Resources

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SkyCity’s (SKC) FY25 result was disappointing on multiple fronts.</li><li>Its inability to convert an asset sale over the past six months led to a NZ$240m capital raise—priced at a 30% discount to the last traded price and a 23% discount to the theoretical ex-rights price (TERP)—to remain within banking covenants.</li><li>FY26 reported EBITDA guidance of NZ$171m—NZ$191m is -10% below our previous estimate, due to higher NZICC losses and higher online investment.</li></ul>

SkyCity’s (SKC) FY25 result was disappointing on multiple fronts.Its inability to convert an asset sale over the past six months led to a NZ$240m capital raise—priced at a 30% discount to the last traded price and a 23% discount to the theoretical ex-rights price (TERP)—to remain within banking covenants.FY26 reported EBITDA guidance of NZ$171m—NZ$191m is -10% below our previous estimate, due to higher NZICC losses and higher online investment.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflect changing market conditions. The consultation conclusions could be announced next week.</li>
<li>The updated methodology could lead to 51 changes across the family of indices with implementation on 19 September. There will be a large impact on a number of stocks.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last several months and near-term performance has been spectacular for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index changes.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflect changing market conditions. The consultation conclusions could be announced next week.
The updated methodology could lead to 51 changes across the family of indices with implementation on 19 September. There will be a large impact on a number of stocks.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last several months and near-term performance has been spectacular for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index changes.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 15th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Liontown Resources, CAR, ANZ, Light &amp; Wonder, Premier Investments.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 15th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Liontown Resources, CAR, ANZ, Light &amp; Wonder, Premier Investments.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 15th): Liontown Resources, CAR, ANZ, Light & Wonder

<ul><li>SkyCity’s (SKC) Adelaide casino has been found suitable to hold its South Australian casino licence.</li><li>The confirmation of suitability reassures investors that: (1) new management is driving a positive cultural shift at SkyCity Adelaide, which was duly noted by regulators; (2) SKC’s investment in compliance and its business transformation project is comprehensive and fit for purpose, albeit complex; and (3) the tail risk of a non-suitability finding has now been removed.</li><li>We estimate an A$50m penalty payable in FY26—short of the maximum potential penalty of A$75m—with credit applied for the NZ$60m programme of works agreed between SKC Adelaide and Kroll, and approved by the South Australian Government.</li></ul>

SkyCity’s (SKC) Adelaide casino has been found suitable to hold its South Australian casino licence.The confirmation of suitability reassures investors that: (1) new management is driving a positive cultural shift at SkyCity Adelaide, which was duly noted by regulators; (2) SKC’s investment in compliance and its business transformation project is comprehensive and fit for purpose, albeit complex; and (3) the tail risk of a non-suitability finding has now been removed.We estimate an A$50m penalty payable in FY26—short of the maximum potential penalty of A$75m—with credit applied for the NZ$60m programme of works agreed between SKC Adelaide and Kroll, and approved by the South Australian Government.

SkyCity Regulatory Clouds Clearing Above Adelaide

Australia

SKYCITY Entertainment Group Ltd. provides gaming and casino services. The Company offers various casinos accompanied with various bars, hotels, restaurants, and convention centers. SKYCITY Entertainment Group offers services in Australia and New Zealand.

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Skycity Entertainment (SKC AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 22nd): Bluescope Steel, CSL, Wesfarmers, Northern Star Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Bluescope Steel, CSL, Wesfarmers, Northern Star...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SkyCity FY25 Result—Bad Beat

FY26 reported EBITDA guidance of NZ$171m—NZ$191m is -10% below our previous estimate, due to higher NZICC losses and higher online investment.

Forsyth Barr

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

The review period for the September rebalance is done and the proposals in the market consultation will be implemented. That means a lot of change...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 15th): Liontown Resources, CAR, ANZ, Light & Wonder

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Liontown Resources, CAR, ANZ, Light & Wonder,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SkyCity Regulatory Clouds Clearing Above Adelaide

The confirmation of suitability reassures investors that: (1) new management is driving a positive cultural shift at SkyCity Adelaide, which was...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 22nd): Bluescope Steel, CSL, Wesfarmers, Northern Star Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Bluescope Steel, CSL, Wesfarmers, Northern Star...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SkyCity FY25 Result—Bad Beat

FY26 reported EBITDA guidance of NZ$171m—NZ$191m is -10% below our previous estimate, due to higher NZICC losses and higher online investment.

Forsyth Barr

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

The review period for the September rebalance is done and the proposals in the market consultation will be implemented. That means a lot of change...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 15th): Liontown Resources, CAR, ANZ, Light & Wonder

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Liontown Resources, CAR, ANZ, Light & Wonder,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SkyCity Regulatory Clouds Clearing Above Adelaide

The confirmation of suitability reassures investors that: (1) new management is driving a positive cultural shift at SkyCity Adelaide, which was...

Forsyth Barr

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated