New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The South Australian Liquor and Gambling Commissioner (Commissioner) has issued a direction notice to SkyCity (SKC) which requires it to appoint a suitably qualified independent expert approved by the Commissioner</li><li>The Commissioner has advised that the appointment of an independent expert will provide an independent perspective of SkyCity Adelaide’s AML/CTF and host responsibility enhancement programmes and an additional layer of assurance.</li><li>The independent review into the suitability of SKC (the Martin Review) remains on hold pending the outcome of the AUSTRAC civil proceedings.</li></ul>

The South Australian Liquor and Gambling Commissioner (Commissioner) has issued a direction notice to SkyCity (SKC) which requires it to appoint a suitably qualified independent expert approved by the CommissionerThe Commissioner has advised that the appointment of an independent expert will provide an independent perspective of SkyCity Adelaide’s AML/CTF and host responsibility enhancement programmes and an additional layer of assurance.The independent review into the suitability of SKC (the Martin Review) remains on hold pending the outcome of the AUSTRAC civil proceedings.

SkyCity (SKC): Independent Expert Review of Adelaide Programmes

<ul><li>Table gaming revenue recovery lagging and compliance cost burden increasing</li><li>No major capex projects planned, focus on maximising value in Auckland</li><li>TAB/Entain deal a positive development in the battle for regulation of online casinos in NZ</li></ul>

Table gaming revenue recovery lagging and compliance cost burden increasingNo major capex projects planned, focus on maximising value in AucklandTAB/Entain deal a positive development in the battle for regulation of online casinos in NZ

SkyCity: Looking to the Horizon — 2023 Investor Day

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Star Entertainment Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)</a> will raise A$800 million with a fully underwritten 3:5 pro rata accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer and institutional placement at A$1.20, a 13.6% discount to TERP.</li>
<li>The equity raise of A$800 million will maintain leverage within the targeted 2.0x-2.5x net debt/EBITDA long-term range in our fines high-case scenario.</li>
<li>Adjusting for the raise, Star trades at a discount to peers. While the shares will be under short-term pressure due to the raise, there is long-term value for the brave. </li>
</ul>



Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU) will raise A$800 million with a fully underwritten 3:5 pro rata accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer and institutional placement at A$1.20, a 13.6% discount to TERP.
The equity raise of A$800 million will maintain leverage within the targeted 2.0x-2.5x net debt/EBITDA long-term range in our fines high-case scenario.
Adjusting for the raise, Star trades at a discount to peers. While the shares will be under short-term pressure due to the raise, there is long-term value for the brave. 


Star Entertainment (SGR AU): A$800m Highly Dilutive Raise to Fix the Balance Sheet

<ul><li>We lower our rating on SkyCity (SKC) to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM in light of a regulatory backdrop that we expect will remain uncertain for more than the next 12 months</li><li>We accept that SKC appears good value (one year forward PE of ~13x) at current levels, though the risk of regulatory intervention into the current status quo is elevated</li><li>Our valuation now incorporates a material regulatory discount in addition to an anticipated AUSTRAC fine of NZ$50m. </li></ul>

We lower our rating on SkyCity (SKC) to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM in light of a regulatory backdrop that we expect will remain uncertain for more than the next 12 monthsWe accept that SKC appears good value (one year forward PE of ~13x) at current levels, though the risk of regulatory intervention into the current status quo is elevatedOur valuation now incorporates a material regulatory discount in addition to an anticipated AUSTRAC fine of NZ$50m. 

SkyCity: 1H23 — Downgrade on Regulatory Risks

<ul><li>SkyCity (SKC) reported a 1H23 result that was modestly above expectations and an upgrade to its full year earnings guidance</li><li>SKC also modestly lifted its FY23 normalised EBITDA guidance +3% at the midpoint to between NZ$305-320m.</li><li>The midpoint of this guidance implies 2H23 normalised EBITDA of NZ$150m, with SKC anticipating increasing cost pressures in the second half.</li></ul>

SkyCity (SKC) reported a 1H23 result that was modestly above expectations and an upgrade to its full year earnings guidanceSKC also modestly lifted its FY23 normalised EBITDA guidance +3% at the midpoint to between NZ$305-320m.The midpoint of this guidance implies 2H23 normalised EBITDA of NZ$150m, with SKC anticipating increasing cost pressures in the second half.

SkyCity (SKC): 1H23 Result First Impressions

Australia

SKYCITY Entertainment Group Ltd. provides gaming and casino services. The Company offers various casinos accompanied with various bars, hotels, restaurants, and convention centers. SKYCITY Entertainment Group offers services in Australia and New Zealand.

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Skycity Entertainment (SKC AU)

SkyCity (SKC): Independent Expert Review of Adelaide Programmes

The South Australian Liquor and Gambling Commissioner (Commissioner) has issued a direction notice to SkyCity (SKC) which requires it to appoint a...

Forsyth Barr

SkyCity: Looking to the Horizon — 2023 Investor Day

SkyCity's (SKC) Investor Day reiterated key themes and included a modest FY23 guidance downgrade; The focus of the day was on the value...

Forsyth Barr

Star Entertainment (SGR AU): A$800m Highly Dilutive Raise to Fix the Balance Sheet

Adjusting for the raise, Star trades at a discount to peers. While the shares will be under short-term pressure due to the raise, there is long...

Arun George

SkyCity: 1H23 — Downgrade on Regulatory Risks

We lower our rating on SkyCity (SKC) to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM in light of a regulatory backdrop that we expect will remain uncertain for more...

Forsyth Barr

SkyCity (SKC): 1H23 Result First Impressions

SkyCity (SKC) reported a 1H23 result that was modestly above expectations and an upgrade to its full year earnings guidance; 1H23 normalised EBITDA...

Forsyth Barr

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