Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. </li>
<li>Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF</li>
<li>Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. 
Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF
Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more


Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

Ategrity Specialty Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC (ASIC) priced a full-size deal of 6.67mm shares at $17.00 ($1 above the range) and opened at $23.65 for a gain of 39.1% at first trade.</li>
<li>The underwriters felt good about this IPO enough that they elected to accelerate the timing of this deal by a single day.</li>
<li>This insurance company was a pure-play E&amp;S with higher regards given to this niche area by sector-dedicated investors.</li>
</ul>


Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC (ASIC) priced a full-size deal of 6.67mm shares at $17.00 ($1 above the range) and opened at $23.65 for a gain of 39.1% at first trade.
The underwriters felt good about this IPO enough that they elected to accelerate the timing of this deal by a single day.
This insurance company was a pure-play E&amp;S with higher regards given to this niche area by sector-dedicated investors.


Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC (ASIC): Insurance Sector Stays Hot, Pops 6 Points at Open

Aspen Insurance Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The stock opened at $33.25 versus the $30.00 issue price for a gain of 10.8% at first trade.</li>
<li>According to guidance that the deal finished north of 10-times oversubscribed. The guidance pointed to a midpoint pricing and that is where the final outcome occurred.</li>
<li>The sponsor, Apollo Global, is known for being a shrewd entity and a stickler on price, however, in this instance investors saw solid value in the company.</li>
</ul>


The stock opened at $33.25 versus the $30.00 issue price for a gain of 10.8% at first trade.
According to guidance that the deal finished north of 10-times oversubscribed. The guidance pointed to a midpoint pricing and that is where the final outcome occurred.
The sponsor, Apollo Global, is known for being a shrewd entity and a stickler on price, however, in this instance investors saw solid value in the company.


Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Attractive Valuation Brings Buyers, Trades Well in Week One

American Integrity Insurance Group / Equity Capital Markets

American Integrity Insurance Group (AII US)

<ul>
<li>According to our sources,  the deal is oversubscribed with a good amount of accounts still to hear from.</li>
<li>Management has strong numbers as of year-end 2024 and have gained even more momentum in Q1 2025. </li>
<li>While smaller in size, this company has a sustainable expansion plan and a profitable balance sheet with a tailwind from a growing Florida market.</li>
</ul>


According to our sources,  the deal is oversubscribed with a good amount of accounts still to hear from.
Management has strong numbers as of year-end 2024 and have gained even more momentum in Q1 2025. 
While smaller in size, this company has a sustainable expansion plan and a profitable balance sheet with a tailwind from a growing Florida market.


American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Specialty Insurer Eyes IPO, Winner in Florida

<ul>
<li>According to guidance that the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with high-quality 1-on-1 conversions.</li>
<li>Aspen is selling itself at or slightly below the $30.73 per share book value of comps.</li>
<li>Apollo Global has done a fair job of cleaning up Aspen and making it increasingly more profitable while reducing exposure to reinsurance and property in vulnerable areas.</li>
</ul>


According to guidance that the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with high-quality 1-on-1 conversions.
Aspen is selling itself at or slightly below the $30.73 per share book value of comps.
Apollo Global has done a fair job of cleaning up Aspen and making it increasingly more profitable while reducing exposure to reinsurance and property in vulnerable areas.


Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Valuation Entices Investors as Orders Flow into IPO

United States

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. operates as an insurance firm. The Company offers commercial property and casualty products and solutions on a non-admitted and admitted basis. Skyward Specialty Insurance Group serves customers in the United States.

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Skyward Specialty Insurance Gr (SKWD US)

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research

Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC (ASIC): Insurance Sector Stays Hot, Pops 6 Points at Open

Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC IPO priced above range, opened strong with 39.1% gain, showing confidence in niche E&S insurance market.

IPO Boutique

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Attractive Valuation Brings Buyers, Trades Well in Week One

Stock of company sponsored by Apollo Global opens at $33.25, 10.8% above issue price of $30, indicating strong investor interest despite sponsor's...

IPO Boutique

American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Specialty Insurer Eyes IPO, Winner in Florida

The company's oversubscribed deal and strong financial performance indicate sustainable growth and profitability in a growing market.

IPO Boutique

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Valuation Entices Investors as Orders Flow into IPO

Aspen's deal is oversubscribed with high-quality conversions, selling below book value, and Apollo Global has improved profitability by reducing...

IPO Boutique

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research

Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC (ASIC): Insurance Sector Stays Hot, Pops 6 Points at Open

​Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC IPO priced above range, opened strong with 39.1% gain, showing confidence in niche E&S insurance market.

IPO Boutique

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Attractive Valuation Brings Buyers, Trades Well in Week One

​Stock of company sponsored by Apollo Global opens at $33.25, 10.8% above issue price of $30, indicating strong investor interest despite sponsor's...

IPO Boutique

American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Specialty Insurer Eyes IPO, Winner in Florida

​The company's oversubscribed deal and strong financial performance indicate sustainable growth and profitability in a growing market.

IPO Boutique

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Valuation Entices Investors as Orders Flow into IPO

​Aspen's deal is oversubscribed with high-quality conversions, selling below book value, and Apollo Global has improved profitability by reducing...

IPO Boutique

Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC IPO priced above range, opened strong with 39.1% gain, showing confidence in niche E&S insurance market.

Stock of company sponsored by Apollo Global opens at $33.25, 10.8% above issue price of $30, indicating strong investor interest despite sponsor's...

The company's oversubscribed deal and strong financial performance indicate sustainable growth and profitability in a growing market.

Aspen's deal is oversubscribed with high-quality conversions, selling below book value, and Apollo Global has improved profitability by reducing...