Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<strong>Our base case valuation of UiPath is $60.7 per share, which represents a 21% upside from the high end of the IPO price range of $50 per share.</strong> Given the moderate upside in the share price using our base case valuation, we have a Positive view of the UiPath IPO. </li>
<li>We forecast the company to generate sales of $982.5 million (up 61.7% YoY), gross profit of $877.8 million (up 62.0% YoY), and an operating loss of $71.2 million in FY ending Jan 2022. From FY ending Jan 2021 to FY ending Jan 2026, we estimate the company's sales to increase by 37.9% CAGR.</li>
<li><p>UiPath is one of the global leaders in the RPA (robotic process automation) market. Robotic process automation is a form of business process automation technology based on software robots or on artificial intelligence. <span>The company provides a comprehensive range of automation solutions via numerous interrelated software offerings. </span></p></li>
</ul>



Our base case valuation of UiPath is $60.7 per share, which represents a 21% upside from the high end of the IPO price range of $50 per share. Given the moderate upside in the share price using our base case valuation, we have a Positive view of the UiPath IPO. 
We forecast the company to generate sales of $982.5 million (up 61.7% YoY), gross profit of $877.8 million (up 62.0% YoY), and an operating loss of $71.2 million in FY ending Jan 2022. From FY ending Jan 2021 to FY ending Jan 2026, we estimate the company's sales to increase by 37.9% CAGR.
UiPath is one of the global leaders in the RPA (robotic process automation) market. Robotic process automation is a form of business process automation technology based on software robots or on artificial intelligence. The company provides a comprehensive range of automation solutions via numerous interrelated software offerings. 


Coinbase Global  / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase (COIN US) </a>plans to complete its direct public listing in April. Coinbase is an operator of one of the largest digital currency exchanges in the world. Established in 2012, Coinbase currently has more than 43 million retail users and 7,000 institutional investors. </p><p>According to the prospectus, the Coinbase shares have traded hands at prices from $200 to $375. The volume weighted average price per share was $343.58 from January to 15 March. Coinbase has recently been valued as high as <a href="https://www.etftrends.com/crypto-channel/coinbase-valued-at-100-billion-ipo-approaches/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$100 billion</a>, which is a significant increase from its private market value of $8 billion in October 2018. Early investors in Coinbase include Tiger Global Management, Y Combinator Continuity, New York Stock Exchange, and Andreessen Horowitz.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<h2>A $100 Billion Valuation?</h2>
<p>Numerous media sources have cited that Coinbase is seeking about <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-02/coinbase-ipo-coin-the-crypto-exchange-is-a-100-billion-cult" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$100 billion</a> in valuation at its direct public listing. Despite the numerous positive factors (such as surging sales growth and turn to profitability), it is difficult to argue for this high of a valuation. At $100 billion valuation, it would represent a whopping 78x P/S multiple (using 2020 sales). It certainly helps that Bitcoin and Ethereum have been surging in prices in the past year.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, even Coinbase itself has pointed out in its prospectus that Bitcoin has experienced four major cycles since its launch (the fourth cycle is still ongoing). We would argue that for the prudent investors, there is no rush to buy Coinbase while Bitcoin price is near at its all time highs. The prudent investor should wait until there is a major correction in the Bitcoin price to see how the Coinbase's financials are able to withstand such correction. </p>
<p><strong>In addition, we would argue that as the Bitcoin and crypto trading become more mainstream, the trading fees for the cryptos WILL GO DOWN much more significantly, which is likely to negatively impact Coinbase.  </strong></p>
</div>

Coinbase (COIN US) plans to complete its direct public listing in April. Coinbase is an operator of one of the largest digital currency exchanges in the world. Established in 2012, Coinbase currently has more than 43 million retail users and 7,000 institutional investors. According to the prospectus, the Coinbase shares have traded hands at prices from $200 to $375. The volume weighted average price per share was $343.58 from January to 15 March. Coinbase has recently been valued as high as $100 billion, which is a significant increase from its private market value of $8 billion in October 2018. Early investors in Coinbase include Tiger Global Management, Y Combinator Continuity, New York Stock Exchange, and Andreessen Horowitz.
A $100 Billion Valuation?
Numerous media sources have cited that Coinbase is seeking about $100 billion in valuation at its direct public listing. Despite the numerous positive factors (such as surging sales growth and turn to profitability), it is difficult to argue for this high of a valuation. At $100 billion valuation, it would represent a whopping 78x P/S multiple (using 2020 sales). It certainly helps that Bitcoin and Ethereum have been surging in prices in the past year.
Nonetheless, even Coinbase itself has pointed out in its prospectus that Bitcoin has experienced four major cycles since its launch (the fourth cycle is still ongoing). We would argue that for the prudent investors, there is no rush to buy Coinbase while Bitcoin price is near at its all time highs. The prudent investor should wait until there is a major correction in the Bitcoin price to see how the Coinbase's financials are able to withstand such correction. 
In addition, we would argue that as the Bitcoin and crypto trading become more mainstream, the trading fees for the cryptos WILL GO DOWN much more significantly, which is likely to negatively impact Coinbase.  


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuya-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32158:1" rel="noopener">Tuya Inc (TUYA US)</a> provides a backend service for IoT (internet of things) device makers. Tuya offers its customers a Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) for IoT devices that handles the connectivity, device software and application development.</p></div><div><p>Tuya has priced its IPO at $21.00 per ADS to raise gross proceeds of $915 million, above the previous IPO price range of $17-20 per ADS, according to Bloomberg. At the final IPO price of $21 per share, Tuya will have a market cap of $11.8 billion. The IPO got off to a strong start due to indications of interest for $500 million worth of ADSs in the offering from existing investors (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> and Hillhouse Capital) and new investors (Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Dragoneer Investment Group, GIC and Tiger Global Management).</p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tuya-ipo-initiation-connected-future" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48695" rel="noopener">Tuya IPO Initiation: Connected Future</a>, we opined that Tuya’s PaaS solutions are well-positioned to benefit from the rising need for third-party IoT PaaS providers who can provide the required tools. We concluded that Tuya’s fundamentals are attractive. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tuya-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49137" rel="noopener">Tuya IPO: Valuation Insights</a> we noted that the IPO price range is reasonable but full at the high-end. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $20.65 per ADS. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis points to a meaningful upside based on securing a modest share of the addressable market. </p></div></div></div>

Tuya Inc (TUYA US) provides a backend service for IoT (internet of things) device makers. Tuya offers its customers a Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) for IoT devices that handles the connectivity, device software and application development.Tuya has priced its IPO at $21.00 per ADS to raise gross proceeds of $915 million, above the previous IPO price range of $17-20 per ADS, according to Bloomberg. At the final IPO price of $21 per share, Tuya will have a market cap of $11.8 billion. The IPO got off to a strong start due to indications of interest for $500 million worth of ADSs in the offering from existing investors (Tencent Holdings (700 HK) and Hillhouse Capital) and new investors (Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Dragoneer Investment Group, GIC and Tiger Global Management).In Tuya IPO Initiation: Connected Future, we opined that Tuya’s PaaS solutions are well-positioned to benefit from the rising need for third-party IoT PaaS providers who can provide the required tools. We concluded that Tuya’s fundamentals are attractive. In Tuya IPO: Valuation Insights we noted that the IPO price range is reasonable but full at the high-end. Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $20.65 per ADS. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis points to a meaningful upside based on securing a modest share of the addressable market. 

<p>Roblox, one of the leading global game platforms, announced on Friday (8 January) that it plans to go public through a Direct Public Listing (DPL), instead of the traditional IPO. Ahead of this direct public listing, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/roblox-expects-direct-listing-on-nyse-in-february.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Roblox</a> raised $520 million in private financing, valuing the company at $29.5 billion or $45 per share.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Our valuation analysis suggests a base case implied market cap of $50 billion and a target price of $76.20 per share for Roblox. This would represent 69% higher level than its most recent private capital raise of $520 million, valuing the company at $29.5 billion or $45 per share. The direct listing valuation range is from $40.5 billion to $60.5 billion, according to our valuation sensitivity analysis. </strong></p></div>

Roblox, one of the leading global game platforms, announced on Friday (8 January) that it plans to go public through a Direct Public Listing (DPL), instead of the traditional IPO. Ahead of this direct public listing, Roblox raised $520 million in private financing, valuing the company at $29.5 billion or $45 per share.Our valuation analysis suggests a base case implied market cap of $50 billion and a target price of $76.20 per share for Roblox. This would represent 69% higher level than its most recent private capital raise of $520 million, valuing the company at $29.5 billion or $45 per share. The direct listing valuation range is from $40.5 billion to $60.5 billion, according to our valuation sensitivity analysis. 

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>When we first began writing about Slack last summer, an acquisition was always on the radar, even as we were initially positive....for the same reason we flipped negative. Slack is a product, not a company, and is best housed inside a larger enterprise IT company...Salesforce.com is certainly it. Price matters though...and Slack is now trading ~22x forward EV/Sales after the 20% rip....CRM 10x. Are we sure Marc Benioff is willing to dilute his stock THAT much? slack = 10% of CRM EV.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

When we first began writing about Slack last summer, an acquisition was always on the radar, even as we were initially positive....for the same reason we flipped negative. Slack is a product, not a company, and is best housed inside a larger enterprise IT company...Salesforce.com is certainly it. Price matters though...and Slack is now trading ~22x forward EV/Sales after the 20% rip....CRM 10x. Are we sure Marc Benioff is willing to dilute his stock THAT much? slack = 10% of CRM EV.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

Slack Technologies, Inc. operates as a software company. The Company designs and develops communication platform that provide real-time messaging, archiving, and searching services for teams. Slack Technologies serves clients worldwide.

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Slack Technologies Inc (WORK US)

UiPath IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of UiPath is $60.7 per share, which represents a 21% upside from the high end of the IPO price range of $50 per share.

Douglas Kim

Coinbase Direct Public Listing Preview

We would argue that as the Bitcoin and crypto trading become more mainstream, the trading fees for the cryptos WILL GO DOWN much more...

Douglas Kim

Tuya IPO: Trading Debut

Tuya has priced its IPO at $21 per ADS above the marketed range of $17-20 per ADS. Our sensitivity analysis points to a meaningful upside based on...

Arun George

Roblox Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation for Roblox is $50 billion and a target price of $76.20 per share. This would represent 69% higher than its most recent...

Douglas Kim

Slack + Salesforce.com: Initial Thoughts

We take a look at the potential pluses and minuses of Salesforce.com's proposed acquisition of Slack. The proposed deal is expensive and makes more...

Aaron Gabin

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