Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Clean energy stocks continue to develop positively and we have reason to believe that price and relative strength (RS) appreciation is likely to continue in the weeks and months ahead.</li>
<li>The technicals are confirming this clean energy story. Looking at the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), price and RS have been basing for nine months and now display bullish inflections.</li>
<li>We are buyers at current levels. Buy: ENPH, RUN, FSLR, DQ, NOVA, SPWR, HASI, CSIQ, S92-DE, MAXN, 1407-JP, and SOL</li>
</ul>


Clean energy stocks continue to develop positively and we have reason to believe that price and relative strength (RS) appreciation is likely to continue in the weeks and months ahead.
The technicals are confirming this clean energy story. Looking at the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), price and RS have been basing for nine months and now display bullish inflections.
We are buyers at current levels. Buy: ENPH, RUN, FSLR, DQ, NOVA, SPWR, HASI, CSIQ, S92-DE, MAXN, 1407-JP, and SOL


Solar Stocks Are Bullishly Inflecting -- Buy ENPH, RUN, FSLR, DQ, NOVA, SPWR, HASI, CSIQ, and Others

<p>The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain near logical resistance as investors await monetary policy decisions from the ECB and Federal Reserve. Considering overhead resistance and continued mixed economic and market signals, we remain squarely in the neutral camp.  We outline important technical levels across major indexes and highlight attractive opportunities within the Manufacturing, Transportation, and Materials Sectors, most of which hail from Europe and Japan.</p>

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain near logical resistance as investors await monetary policy decisions from the ECB and Federal Reserve. Considering overhead resistance and continued mixed economic and market signals, we remain squarely in the neutral camp.  We outline important technical levels across major indexes and highlight attractive opportunities within the Manufacturing, Transportation, and Materials Sectors, most of which hail from Europe and Japan.

Global Equity Strategy: Overhead Resistance Looms

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Sigenergy Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigenergy-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44468:1" rel="noopener">Sigenergy Technology (6656 HK)</a>, as a leader in distributed energy storage system solutions, has an impressive profit record and is forecast to sustain.</li>
<li>Sales of its flagship product, SigenStor, surged 314.3% in 2M26, and confirmed orders reaching Rmb3.8bn at end-Feb. We expect the 3-year EPS CAGR at 41.7%.</li>
<li>The IPO price (HK$324.2) translates into 12x FY26F PER, cheaper than 20.8x for the HK peers. At a 20-30% discount to peers, its fair value range implies 21-39% upside.</li>
</ul>



Sigenergy Technology (6656 HK), as a leader in distributed energy storage system solutions, has an impressive profit record and is forecast to sustain.
Sales of its flagship product, SigenStor, surged 314.3% in 2M26, and confirmed orders reaching Rmb3.8bn at end-Feb. We expect the 3-year EPS CAGR at 41.7%.
The IPO price (HK$324.2) translates into 12x FY26F PER, cheaper than 20.8x for the HK peers. At a 20-30% discount to peers, its fair value range implies 21-39% upside.


Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>I currently see no changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.</li>
<li>M&amp;A candidate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/morphosys-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21675:1" rel="noopener">MorphoSys AG (MOR GR)</a> could be deleted in the run up to the June 2024 review.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
I currently see no changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.
M&amp;A candidate MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) could be deleted in the run up to the June 2024 review.


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Growatt Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/growatt-new-energy-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36103:1" rel="noopener">Growatt Technology (1833969D CH)</a> has downsized it HKEx IPO to about US$400m and in this insight, we have compared the company’s financials against other listed PV inverter players.</li>
<li>Our peer analysis reveals that Growatt’s top line has grown at much higher rates compared to No. 1 player Sungrow whose margins were well below the company.</li>
<li>By looking at valuation multiples of listed peers, it seems that the company could easily command a valuation of more than US$5bn if it is valued in line with peers.</li>
</ul>



Growatt Technology (1833969D CH) has downsized it HKEx IPO to about US$400m and in this insight, we have compared the company’s financials against other listed PV inverter players.
Our peer analysis reveals that Growatt’s top line has grown at much higher rates compared to No. 1 player Sungrow whose margins were well below the company.
By looking at valuation multiples of listed peers, it seems that the company could easily command a valuation of more than US$5bn if it is valued in line with peers.


Growatt IPO: Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

Germany

SMA Solar Technology AG manufactures solar inverters, alternating current converters for solar generated electricity. The Company specializes in photovoltaic systems technology. SMA is headquartered in Germany, and operates worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sma Solar Technology Ag (S92 GR)

Solar Stocks Are Bullishly Inflecting -- Buy ENPH, RUN, FSLR, DQ, NOVA, SPWR, HASI, CSIQ, and Others

Price and RS have been basing for nine months and now display bullish inflections on the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN). This is the time to pounce, and...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Overhead Resistance Looms

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain near logical resistance as investors await monetary policy decisions from the ECB...

Vermilion Research

Sigenergy (6656 HK) IPO: Go for It!

Sigenergy is a leader in distributed energy storage solutions with impressive profit growth and a promising future. Its IPO price of HK$324.20...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index

Commercial vehicle manufacturer Traton is a strong candidate for MDAX addition. The expected index flow could act as a catalyst and help the stock...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Growatt IPO: Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

Growatt's revenues and margins have grown at much higher rates cf. peers including the No. 1 player in the market. The company could command a...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Solar Stocks Are Bullishly Inflecting -- Buy ENPH, RUN, FSLR, DQ, NOVA, SPWR, HASI, CSIQ, and Others

Price and RS have been basing for nine months and now display bullish inflections on the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN). This is the time to pounce, and...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Overhead Resistance Looms

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain near logical resistance as investors await monetary policy decisions from the ECB...

Vermilion Research

Sigenergy (6656 HK) IPO: Go for It!

​Sigenergy is a leader in distributed energy storage solutions with impressive profit growth and a promising future. Its IPO price of HK$324.20...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index

Commercial vehicle manufacturer Traton is a strong candidate for MDAX addition. The expected index flow could act as a catalyst and help the stock...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Growatt IPO: Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

Growatt's revenues and margins have grown at much higher rates cf. peers including the No. 1 player in the market. The company could command a...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Sigenergy is a leader in distributed energy storage solutions with impressive profit growth and a promising future. Its IPO price of HK$324.20...