Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>ASX 200 rebalance will be effective on 21 Sep 2026 before market open, with 5 ADDs and 5 DELETEs.</li>
<li>Four of the five ADDs gained over the bridge window, led by Sunrise Energy Metals at +28.1%. Tuas was the only DELETE to gain.</li>
<li>Historically, ADDs with a positive bridge were evenly split between first-week gains and losses. DELETEs mostly fell in the first implementation week after either bridge direction.</li>
</ul>


ASX 200 rebalance will be effective on 21 Sep 2026 before market open, with 5 ADDs and 5 DELETEs.
Four of the five ADDs gained over the bridge window, led by Sunrise Energy Metals at +28.1%. Tuas was the only DELETE to gain.
Historically, ADDs with a positive bridge were evenly split between first-week gains and losses. DELETEs mostly fell in the first implementation week after either bridge direction.


ASX 200 Sep 2026 Index Rebalance: Pre-Implementation Update

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Multiple index families rebalance at the close today, driving huge flows across Australian stocks. Estimates indicate over A$5bn to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Among index adds, we see large flows in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eq-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14984:1" rel="noopener">EQ Resources (EQR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan (CDA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunrise-energy-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11810:1" rel="noopener">Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Among index deletes, the largest flows are in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cochlear-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:918:1" rel="noopener">Cochlear (COH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/graincorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18531:1" rel="noopener">Graincorp (GNC AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amalgamated-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20978:1" rel="noopener">Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Multiple index families rebalance at the close today, driving huge flows across Australian stocks. Estimates indicate over A$5bn to trade from passive trackers.
Among index adds, we see large flows in EQ Resources (EQR AU), Codan (CDA AU), Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU) and Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU). 
Among index deletes, the largest flows are in Evolution Mining (EVN AU), Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), Cochlear (COH AU), Graincorp (GNC AU) and Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU). 


Australia: A$5bn+ to Trade at the Close Today Across Local & Global Indices

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fleetpartners-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:339:1" rel="noopener">FleetPartners Group (FPR AU)</a> has disclosed that SG Fleet, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5380:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP)</a> have revised their NBIOs to A$4.55, A$4.65 and A$4.65, respectively. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/element-fleet-management-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24511:1" rel="noopener">Element Fleet Management (EFN CN)</a> has dropped out. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-fleet-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13984:1" rel="noopener">Sg Fleet (SGF AU)</a> is also likely to drop out, as its revised offer already factors in substantial synergies.</li>
<li>One of the Japanese strategics will win, as FleetPartners is a relatively small, strategically adjacent bolt-on. A final binding offer around A$4.90-A$5.00 per share is possible.</li>
</ul>



FleetPartners Group (FPR AU) has disclosed that SG Fleet, Orix Corp (8591 JP) and Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) have revised their NBIOs to A$4.55, A$4.65 and A$4.65, respectively. 

Element Fleet Management (EFN CN) has dropped out. Sg Fleet (SGF AU) is also likely to drop out, as its revised offer already factors in substantial synergies.
One of the Japanese strategics will win, as FleetPartners is a relatively small, strategically adjacent bolt-on. A final binding offer around A$4.90-A$5.00 per share is possible.


FleetPartners (FPR AU): Approaching the Endgame with Materially Higher Revised Offers

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fleetpartners-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:339:1" rel="noopener">FleetPartners Group (FPR AU)</a> has disclosed that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-fleet-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13984:1" rel="noopener">Sg Fleet (SGF AU)</a> has increased its offer to A$4.00, and that a third bidder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a>, has offered A$3.80.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/element-fleet-management-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24511:1" rel="noopener">Element Fleet Management (EFN CN)</a>’s request for hard exclusivity was denied. All three proposals were made without due diligence access, which suggests there's still room for further raises.</li>
<li>The AFR reports that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartgroup-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19954:1" rel="noopener">Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU)</a> is also contemplating a bid. The competitive auction could push the final winning bid towards the A$4.20 to A$4.50 range.</li>
</ul>



FleetPartners Group (FPR AU) has disclosed that Sg Fleet (SGF AU) has increased its offer to A$4.00, and that a third bidder, Orix Corp (8591 JP), has offered A$3.80.

Element Fleet Management (EFN CN)’s request for hard exclusivity was denied. All three proposals were made without due diligence access, which suggests there's still room for further raises.
The AFR reports that Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU) is also contemplating a bid. The competitive auction could push the final winning bid towards the A$4.20 to A$4.50 range.


FleetPartners (FPR AU): A Three-Way to Potentially Four-Way Tussle

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes for the ASX50, 1 for the ASX100, 6 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 16 adds/11 deletes for the ASX300 in September.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, but outperformance has reduced for the ASX50/ASX200 indices and has increased for the ASX100/ASX300 indices.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes for the ASX50, 1 for the ASX100, 6 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 16 adds/11 deletes for the ASX300 in September.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, but outperformance has reduced for the ASX50/ASX200 indices and has increased for the ASX100/ASX300 indices.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

Australia

SmartGroup Corp Ltd. is an Australian outsourced salary packaging company within the health, not-for-profit, State and Federal Government departments and corporate sectors nationwide.

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Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU)

ASX 200 Sep 2026 Index Rebalance: Pre-Implementation Update

S&P/ASX 200 enters implementation on 21 Sep 2026. We update post-announcement stock performance and discuss implementation trades.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Australia: A$5bn+ to Trade at the Close Today Across Local & Global Indices

Multiple index families rebalance in Oz at the close today. Estimated passive trading is A$5bn+. Shorts have built up in a lot of stocks and there...

Brian Freitas

FleetPartners (FPR AU): Approaching the Endgame with Materially Higher Revised Offers

One of the Japanese strategics will win, as FleetPartners is a relatively small, strategically adjacent bolt-on. A final binding offer around...

Arun George

FleetPartners (FPR AU): A Three-Way to Potentially Four-Way Tussle

The AFR reports that Element has pulled out of the auction. Element’s decision was not aided by a 14% decline in its share price since it announced...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 45 changes across the ASX family of indices in Sept. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Short interest is...

Brian Freitas

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ASX 200 Sep 2026 Index Rebalance: Pre-Implementation Update

S&P/ASX 200 enters implementation on 21 Sep 2026. We update post-announcement stock performance and discuss implementation trades.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Australia: A$5bn+ to Trade at the Close Today Across Local & Global Indices

Multiple index families rebalance in Oz at the close today. Estimated passive trading is A$5bn+. Shorts have built up in a lot of stocks and there...

Brian Freitas

FleetPartners (FPR AU): Approaching the Endgame with Materially Higher Revised Offers

One of the Japanese strategics will win, as FleetPartners is a relatively small, strategically adjacent bolt-on. A final binding offer around...

Arun George

FleetPartners (FPR AU): A Three-Way to Potentially Four-Way Tussle

The AFR reports that Element has pulled out of the auction. Element’s decision was not aided by a 14% decline in its share price since it announced...

Arun George

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 45 changes across the ASX family of indices in Sept. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Short interest is...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact