Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

Shoulder Innovations / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Shoulder Innovations Inc., high-growth and pure-play shoulder arthroplasty device company, filed for an IPO in the United States.</li>
<li>Their flagship product, InSet Glenoid, is the first and only FDA cleared device that solves glenoid loosening. The company has raised ~$115M in equity according to the S-1.</li>
<li>I believe there is good near-term visibility for growth as Shoulder Innovations drives commercial expansion and achieves greater domestic reach.</li>
</ul>


Shoulder Innovations Inc., high-growth and pure-play shoulder arthroplasty device company, filed for an IPO in the United States.
Their flagship product, InSet Glenoid, is the first and only FDA cleared device that solves glenoid loosening. The company has raised ~$115M in equity according to the S-1.
I believe there is good near-term visibility for growth as Shoulder Innovations drives commercial expansion and achieves greater domestic reach.


Shoulder Innovations IPO Preview: Seeing Value In InSet Glenoid Technology and Disruptive Ecosystem

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orthofix-medical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1264:1" rel="noopener">Orthofix International Nv (OFIX US)</a> named Massimo Calafiore as incoming President and CEO. Mr. Calafiore has extensive knowledge in orthopedics and spine, and M&amp;A integration expertise.</li>
<li>Orthofix has performed well and operated smoothly following management transition. In 3Q23, revenue increased 61% YoY on a reported basis and 1% YoY on a pro forma basis to $184M.</li>
<li>The company expects to deliver much higher adjusted profits next year and to exit 2024 cash-flow positive from an estimated $100 million outflow for 2023.</li>
</ul>


In November, Orthofix International Nv (OFIX US) named Massimo Calafiore as incoming President and CEO. Mr. Calafiore has extensive knowledge in orthopedics and spine, and M&amp;A integration expertise.
Orthofix has performed well and operated smoothly following management transition. In 3Q23, revenue increased 61% YoY on a reported basis and 1% YoY on a pro forma basis to $184M.
The company expects to deliver much higher adjusted profits next year and to exit 2024 cash-flow positive from an estimated $100 million outflow for 2023.


Orthofix International (OFIX US): Limited Downside Likely; Looking Ahead to 2024 with New Management

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe</li>
</ul>


We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe


Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.</li>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.</li>
<li>With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).


Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

United Kingdom

Smith & Nephew plc develops and markets advanced medical devices. The Group is involved in orthopaedics, endoscopy, and advanced wound management.

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Smith & Nephew (SNN US)

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Shoulder Innovations IPO Preview: Seeing Value In InSet Glenoid Technology and Disruptive Ecosystem

Shoulder Innovations Inc., a high-growth medical device company, files for IPO in the United States. The company demonstrates early commercial...

Andrei Zakharov

Orthofix International (OFIX US): Limited Downside Likely; Looking Ahead to 2024 with New Management

Orthofix has named Massimo Calafiore as its new CEO, who will bring expertise in spine and orthopedics and M&A integration. The company expects...

Tina Banerjee

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

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Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Shoulder Innovations IPO Preview: Seeing Value In InSet Glenoid Technology and Disruptive Ecosystem

​Shoulder Innovations Inc., a high-growth medical device company, files for IPO in the United States. The company demonstrates early commercial...

Andrei Zakharov

Orthofix International (OFIX US): Limited Downside Likely; Looking Ahead to 2024 with New Management

​Orthofix has named Massimo Calafiore as its new CEO, who will bring expertise in spine and orthopedics and M&A integration. The company expects...

Tina Banerjee

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

Shoulder Innovations Inc., a high-growth medical device company, files for IPO in the United States. The company demonstrates early commercial...

Orthofix has named Massimo Calafiore as its new CEO, who will bring expertise in spine and orthopedics and M&A integration. The company expects...