Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tencent’s increase in investment acquisition activity has coincided with a general weakness in equity prices and valuation levels.</li>
<li>Tencent management’s assessment of the fair value of its listed investee holdings, of RMB982.8bn on 31 December 2021, equates to roughly 27.4% of its market cap.</li>
<li>The market value of Tencent’s investee holdings in more-mature, Chinese-listed, internet-orientated holdings equates to roughly 9% of its current market cap.</li>
</ul>


Tencent’s increase in investment acquisition activity has coincided with a general weakness in equity prices and valuation levels.
Tencent management’s assessment of the fair value of its listed investee holdings, of RMB982.8bn on 31 December 2021, equates to roughly 27.4% of its market cap.
The market value of Tencent’s investee holdings in more-mature, Chinese-listed, internet-orientated holdings equates to roughly 9% of its current market cap.


Tencent: Investments up as Valuations Drop, Room for Another Significant Special in Specie Dividend

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Snapchat largely dispelled the Apple bear case, and should return to the mid $60s.</li>
<li>Actual competitive differentiation vs. TikTok and Facebook means Snapchat's user growth and engagement remain strong.</li>
<li>Revenue growth will reaccelerate as it works through IDFA, but international monetization is the kicker.</li>
</ul>


Snapchat largely dispelled the Apple bear case, and should return to the mid $60s.
Actual competitive differentiation vs. TikTok and Facebook means Snapchat's user growth and engagement remain strong.
Revenue growth will reaccelerate as it works through IDFA, but international monetization is the kicker.


Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

<ul>
<li>5 Issues: Tough Comps, Supply Chain Disruptions, Reels MixShift, Apple IDFA, and TikTok...thats alot of issues</li>
<li>TikTok is pressuring engagement and Google is taking Facebook's advertising revenues.</li>
<li>Strong management team with history of executing at a trough valuation provides a good entry point. But may make more sense to just buy Google.</li>
</ul>


5 Issues: Tough Comps, Supply Chain Disruptions, Reels MixShift, Apple IDFA, and TikTok...thats alot of issues
TikTok is pressuring engagement and Google is taking Facebook's advertising revenues.
Strong management team with history of executing at a trough valuation provides a good entry point. But may make more sense to just buy Google.


Facebook 4Q21: Trending on TikTok ‘How to Lose $200B in Market Cap’

Research on Tech Companies

Evelyn Zhang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>It'll take another 3-5 years of further development for VR and AR products to reach the level of user experience and reduction in cost necessary for wide commercial adoption. </li>
<li>The emergence of blockbuster AAA content will aid the large-scale adoption of Metaverse hardware, user generated contents are much lower in development cost,  a trend pioneered by Roblox &amp;Epic Games.</li>
<li>A-Share listed companies mainly focus on hardware value chain. China's video game regulator hasn't approved any new titles since July 2021. Leading Chinese companies are focusing on the commercial application.  </li>
</ul>


It'll take another 3-5 years of further development for VR and AR products to reach the level of user experience and reduction in cost necessary for wide commercial adoption. 
The emergence of blockbuster AAA content will aid the large-scale adoption of Metaverse hardware, user generated contents are much lower in development cost,  a trend pioneered by Roblox &amp;Epic Games.
A-Share listed companies mainly focus on hardware value chain. China's video game regulator hasn't approved any new titles since July 2021. Leading Chinese companies are focusing on the commercial application.  


Virtual Smoke and Mirror—Vision to Reality

<ul>
<li>Roblox is early days in so many new TAMs: advertising, music, commerce, education.</li>
<li>The advertising opportunity is enormous, given the amount of hours spent on the platform, one can easily see Roblox building a $2B+ ad business.</li>
<li>Roblox is still early in building out the infrastructure to support many new forms of monetization, and they are doing so in a thoughtful fashion.</li>
</ul>


Roblox is early days in so many new TAMs: advertising, music, commerce, education.
The advertising opportunity is enormous, given the amount of hours spent on the platform, one can easily see Roblox building a $2B+ ad business.
Roblox is still early in building out the infrastructure to support many new forms of monetization, and they are doing so in a thoughtful fashion.


United States

Snap Inc. provides technology and social media services. The Company develops mobile camera application products and services that allow users to send and receive photos, drawings, text, and videos. Snap serves customers worldwide.

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Snap (SNAP US)

Tencent: Investments up as Valuations Drop, Room for Another Significant Special in Specie Dividend

In this insight, we analyse Tencent’s recent investment activity and notable investee holdings to evaluate the potential for another meaningful...

Wium Malan, CFA

Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

With Snapchat's LT thesis restored, we would buy the stock even up 50%. A return to its 5 yr P/S average of 14x would equate to $66 on 2023 revenues.

Aaron Gabin

Virtual Smoke and Mirror—Vision to Reality

The recent surge in Metaverse have brought VR & AR back into the focus of the market. So is the Metaverse finally ready for prime time or still a...

Evelyn Zhang

Roblox Analyst Day: TAM Unlimited

We wrote about Roblox after its most recent earnings in early November and our general take was… great quarter, but was it really worth a 30%...

Aaron Gabin

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tencent: Investments up as Valuations Drop, Room for Another Significant Special in Specie Dividend

In this insight, we analyse Tencent’s recent investment activity and notable investee holdings to evaluate the potential for another meaningful...

Wium Malan, CFA

Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

With Snapchat's LT thesis restored, we would buy the stock even up 50%. A return to its 5 yr P/S average of 14x would equate to $66 on 2023 revenues.

Aaron Gabin

Facebook 4Q21: Trending on TikTok ‘How to Lose $200B in Market Cap’

TikTok's threat doesn’t impact the wave of monetization opportunities related to commerce, messaging, and the metaverse. FB trading at the same...

Aaron Gabin

Virtual Smoke and Mirror—Vision to Reality

The recent surge in Metaverse have brought VR & AR back into the focus of the market. So is the Metaverse finally ready for prime time or still a...

Evelyn Zhang

Roblox Analyst Day: TAM Unlimited

We wrote about Roblox after its most recent earnings in early November and our general take was… great quarter, but was it really worth a 30%...

Aaron Gabin