Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The latest Census in Japan confirms the ongoing fall in total population across most of the country but reveals surprising growth markets in small pockets, particularly around Greater Tokyo which now accounts for just under 30% of the total population.There are also ever growing numbers of single people, expanding the promising solo market. In the bigger cities, younger people bring new types of consumption but the increase in older singles is a growing problem.The following provides background macro trends for any investor looking at the Japan consumer space and some stocks we think will benefit from these macro trends.

The latest Census in Japan confirms the ongoing fall in total population across most of the country but reveals surprising growth markets in small pockets, particularly around Greater Tokyo which now accounts for just under 30% of the total population.There are also ever growing numbers of single people, expanding the promising solo market. In the bigger cities, younger people bring new types of consumption but the increase in older singles is a growing problem.The following provides background macro trends for any investor looking at the Japan consumer space and some stocks we think will benefit from these macro trends.

Shrinking, Ageing Japan but a Growing Solo Market

Like most lifestyle segments, the outdoor apparel &amp; equipment market contracted in 2020 but this is a blip in an otherwise sustained multi-year expansion. Long-term growth is being driven by both expanded supply and demand as consumers of all ages embrace the great outdoors for the first time in generations and suppliers rush to equip them.This has benefited retailers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workman-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1" rel="noopener">Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1" rel="noopener">Goldwin Inc (8111 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> but it also means that a number of other retailers have entered the market, creating new competition, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bic-camera-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11328:1" rel="noopener">Bic Camera Inc (3048 JP) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kohnan-shoji-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5662:1" rel="noopener">Kohnan Shoji (7516 JP).</a>

Like most lifestyle segments, the outdoor apparel &amp; equipment market contracted in 2020 but this is a blip in an otherwise sustained multi-year expansion. Long-term growth is being driven by both expanded supply and demand as consumers of all ages embrace the great outdoors for the first time in generations and suppliers rush to equip them.This has benefited retailers such as Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP), Goldwin Inc (8111 JP) and Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) but it also means that a number of other retailers have entered the market, creating new competition, including Bic Camera Inc (3048 JP) and Kohnan Shoji (7516 JP).

Japan's Outdoor Market Expands 3.2% in 2019 but Contraction in 2020

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Through all the upheavals in discretionary product distribution in the last decade, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)'s</a> Itochu Textile subsidiary has managed to maintain huge power in the channel.</li>
<li>While the trading firm has traditionally focused on premium fashion brands, in the last few years it has invested heavily in the sports market, including its growing investment in Descente.</li>
<li>The move is part of wider plans to take lead share in sports, footwear and department store brands.</li>
</ul>


Through all the upheavals in discretionary product distribution in the last decade, Itochu Corp (8001 JP)'s Itochu Textile subsidiary has managed to maintain huge power in the channel.
While the trading firm has traditionally focused on premium fashion brands, in the last few years it has invested heavily in the sports market, including its growing investment in Descente.
The move is part of wider plans to take lead share in sports, footwear and department store brands.


Descente a Key Part of Itochu's Plans in Sports

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For the month of April 2024, 7 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn. </li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~42%. </li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of April 2024, 7 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn. 
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~42%. 
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, April 2024: Austal, L'Occitane, Langham Hosp., Jastec, Mimasu, Best World, Isetan

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jastec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9201:1" rel="noopener">Jastec Co Ltd (9717 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantm-intellectual-property" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24317:1" rel="noopener">Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-cross-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10374:1" rel="noopener">Southern Cross Media (SXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qv-equities-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24284:1" rel="noopener">QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU)</a>, China TCM.  </li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roland-dg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10653:1" rel="noopener">Roland DG Corp (6789 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmark-property-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40696:1" rel="noopener">Newmark Property REIT (NPR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mma-offshore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:594:1" rel="noopener">Mma Offshore (MRM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Jastec Co Ltd (9717 JP), Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU), Southern Cross Media (SXL AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU), China TCM.  
Lowest spreads: Roland DG Corp (6789 JP), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Newmark Property REIT (NPR AU), Mma Offshore (MRM AU), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU). 


Merger Arb Mondays (08 Apr) - JSR, Jastec, Shinko, Azure, Genex, Best World, Isetan

Japan

Snow Peak Inc. designs, manufactures, and retails camping equipment and outdoor lifestyle goods.

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Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)

Shrinking, Ageing Japan but a Growing Solo Market

Japan's population is contracting but there are areas of growth, particularly the solo market (single people living alone) and the senior market....

Michael Causton

Japan's Outdoor Market Expands 3.2% in 2019 but Contraction in 2020

Japan's outdoor market is one of few segments to see solid growth in recent years and while the market will dip in 2020, will grow well in the next...

Michael Causton

Descente a Key Part of Itochu's Plans in Sports

This is background on why Itochu's just announced tender for the remaining shares in Descente is part of a wider brief to become a powerhouse in...

Michael Causton

(Mostly) Asia M&A, April 2024: Austal, L'Occitane, Langham Hosp., Jastec, Mimasu, Best World, Isetan

For the month of April, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (08 Apr) - JSR, Jastec, Shinko, Azure, Genex, Best World, Isetan

This week, the highest gross spreads are Jastec (37.6%), Qantm IP (15.0%), Southern Cross (11.5%), Genex Power (10.0%), QV Equities (7.5%), China...

Arun George

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