Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Apparently, MergerMarket had an article out Friday saying once-higher-flying outdoor/sporting goods retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> was considering going private. The company <a href="https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/AS03293/7851b800/df96/4e0f/b3a4/21cea71efa05/140120240216538923.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a>(J) late they were considering multiple options.</li>
<li>A Nikkei <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC16E150W4A210C2000000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> (J) Saturday said it was Bain would launch an MBO/Tender Offer as early as this week paying ¥50bn. </li>
<li>This will probably go limit up Monday. I'd expect an announcement post-close Monday. Long-suffering long-only investors who have already sold will be disappointed. Those who were late to sell? Happy.</li>
</ul>


Apparently, MergerMarket had an article out Friday saying once-higher-flying outdoor/sporting goods retailer Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) was considering going private. The company said(J) late they were considering multiple options.
A Nikkei article (J) Saturday said it was Bain would launch an MBO/Tender Offer as early as this week paying ¥50bn. 
This will probably go limit up Monday. I'd expect an announcement post-close Monday. Long-suffering long-only investors who have already sold will be disappointed. Those who were late to sell? Happy.


Snow Peak (7816) - Nikkei Says Bain to Launch ¥50bn MBO

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Descente has improved profitability since being taken over by Itochu three years ago but much of the growth has come from overseas. </li>
<li>The Descente brand remains weak in Japan but Itochu has plans to rebuild the eponymous label by splitting it into two while creating several new brands.</li>
<li>The plans should help recover momentum in Japan and drive further expansion in China and even into Europe and the US.</li>
</ul>


Descente has improved profitability since being taken over by Itochu three years ago but much of the growth has come from overseas. 
The Descente brand remains weak in Japan but Itochu has plans to rebuild the eponymous label by splitting it into two while creating several new brands.
The plans should help recover momentum in Japan and drive further expansion in China and even into Europe and the US.


<ul>
<li>After decades of industrial, urban focus, city-dwelling Japanese first began a tentative reengagement with nature through hiking two decades ago. </li>
<li>This has evolved into more extended trips that began to include camping and visits to wilder areas.</li>
<li>These excursions are still a bit forbidding for many, so camping and outdoor activities in a park managed by a trusted brand have strong appeal, providing new revenue for brands.</li>
</ul>


After decades of industrial, urban focus, city-dwelling Japanese first began a tentative reengagement with nature through hiking two decades ago. 
This has evolved into more extended trips that began to include camping and visits to wilder areas.
These excursions are still a bit forbidding for many, so camping and outdoor activities in a park managed by a trusted brand have strong appeal, providing new revenue for brands.


Branded Camping from Goldwin and Snow Peak

<ul>
<li>Although spending on non-necessities withered from March 2020 onwards, some low-cost retailers of discretionary items continued to grow. </li>
<li>Workman’s mix of high cost performance and engagement with the ever more active outdoor market has, and will, support expansion, even if same-store sales growth has slowed.</li>
<li>Future category expansion will deliver higher same-store sales as well as top line growth. 1,500 stores (from 1,000) is certain but 2,000 is possible thanks to new categories like footwear.</li>
</ul>


Although spending on non-necessities withered from March 2020 onwards, some low-cost retailers of discretionary items continued to grow. 
Workman’s mix of high cost performance and engagement with the ever more active outdoor market has, and will, support expansion, even if same-store sales growth has slowed.
Future category expansion will deliver higher same-store sales as well as top line growth. 1,500 stores (from 1,000) is certain but 2,000 is possible thanks to new categories like footwear.


2023 High Conviction: Workman's Cost Performance Will Beat the Competition

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> at the close on 28 July.</li>
<li>There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.</li>
<li>We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).</li>
</ul>



Mercari Inc (4385 JP) will be added to the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 July.
There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.
We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).


TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

Japan

Snow Peak Inc. designs, manufactures, and retails camping equipment and outdoor lifestyle goods.

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Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)

Snow Peak (7816) - Nikkei Says Bain to Launch ¥50bn MBO

Late Friday, media sources suggested Bain would launch an MBO with CEO Yamai-san staying on. The Tender could start as early as this week. Snow...

Travis Lundy

Descente Puts on Some Pace

Japanese outdoor brands are on a roll. Descente, now part of the Itochu empire, is rebuilding its brand at home and overseas, with significant...

Michael Causton

Branded Camping from Goldwin and Snow Peak

Branded camping and outdoor leisure in Japan is big business and will provide new revenue streams for the leaders, Goldwin and Snow Peak, over the...

Michael Causton

2023 High Conviction: Workman's Cost Performance Will Beat the Competition

Some analysts have dismissed Workman as past its peak because S-S sales have fallen. This is a mistake: top line expansion and income growth will...

Michael Causton

TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

Mercari will be added to the TPX at the close on 28 July. There are a lot of FFW changes that will result in one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a...

Brian Freitas

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