Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Middle East tensions continue to ratchet up, and Brent crude oil prices have risen over USD 70/bbl this weekend against a 2019 average of USD 64.23/bbl.</li>
<li>The geopolitical uncertainties are worrisome given the rhetoric and unpredictability of both sides.</li>
<li> The fact that the recovery from the GFC has not been very even leads us to conclude that there are significant pockets financial sector risks globally.  </li>
</ul>


Middle East tensions continue to ratchet up, and Brent crude oil prices have risen over USD 70/bbl this weekend against a 2019 average of USD 64.23/bbl.
The geopolitical uncertainties are worrisome given the rhetoric and unpredictability of both sides.
 The fact that the recovery from the GFC has not been very even leads us to conclude that there are significant pockets financial sector risks globally.  


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the most attractive Sectors globally -- overweight. These two Sectors account for half of today’s individual recommendations Countries that are (1) developing positively in terms of price and RS and (2) have significant representation in this report include: Japan (TOPIX), Switzerland (SMI), and France (CAC 40).Outside of the above themes, a bottoms-up approach is required to uncover attractive and actionable stocks. On page 4 we include a table of all stocks highlighted in this report.

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the most attractive Sectors globally -- overweight. These two Sectors account for half of today’s individual recommendations Countries that are (1) developing positively in terms of price and RS and (2) have significant representation in this report include: Japan (TOPIX), Switzerland (SMI), and France (CAC 40).Outside of the above themes, a bottoms-up approach is required to uncover attractive and actionable stocks. On page 4 we include a table of all stocks highlighted in this report. 

Overweight Global Technology & Industrials

* A Coalition Win Creates Numerous Problems: The German government likely will  drag out the timeline for new Italian elections in order to guide Italy into a recession, as such, the September election appears to be a de facto referendum on the European Union (EU) and EUR. * Financials Tax Looming: Questions arise over how coalition will cover the budget deficit. The financial sector is the proverbial fish in the barrel with over EUR 20 bn in profits. Investment SummaryOn Monday, June 4, 2018…

* A Coalition Win Creates Numerous Problems: The German government likely will  drag out the timeline for new Italian elections in order to guide Italy into a recession, as such, the September election appears to be a de facto referendum on the European Union (EU) and EUR. * Financials Tax Looming: Questions arise over how coalition will cover the budget deficit. The financial sector is the proverbial fish in the barrel with over EUR 20 bn in profits. Investment SummaryOn Monday, June 4, 2018…

Italian Election Likely to Severely Impact Financial Sector

* Stronger USD on the back of higher interest rates, and higher USD-denominated oil prices are the perfect storm for the Turkish economy and TRL. * Even in a best case scenario of a soft landing and a Chinese rescue package, significant EPS downgrades are likely with 2018 GDP warnings, the pro-cyclicality of IFRS9 which will increase loan provisioning by 100 bps, and imminent loan growth deceleration on the back of higher local rates. * Economic data is weak: Current account deficit of 6.5%…

* Stronger USD on the back of higher interest rates, and higher USD-denominated oil prices are the perfect storm for the Turkish economy and TRL. * Even in a best case scenario of a soft landing and a Chinese rescue package, significant EPS downgrades are likely with 2018 GDP warnings, the pro-cyclicality of IFRS9 which will increase loan provisioning by 100 bps, and imminent loan growth deceleration on the back of higher local rates. * Economic data is weak: Current account deficit of 6.5%…

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked European indices. The annual index review takes place in September, with index weights rebalanced every quarter.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our flows for June 2026 and index change expectations for September 2026.</li>
<li>We see two ADDs and two DELs for September 2026, along with a few large names that could become expected ADDs if they clear the sector requirement threshold.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked European indices. The annual index review takes place in September, with index weights rebalanced every quarter.
In this insight, we take a look at our flows for June 2026 and index change expectations for September 2026.
We see two ADDs and two DELs for September 2026, along with a few large names that could become expected ADDs if they clear the sector requirement threshold.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep26: US$900mn One-Way in Jun26; Nokia + Engie ADD in Sep26

France

Societe Generale SA attracts deposits and offers commercial, retail, investment, and private banking services.  The Bank offers consumer credit, vehicle lease financing, information technology equipment leasing, life and non-life insurance, custodian services, trade and project financing, currency exchange, treasury services, and financial and commodities futures brokerage services.

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Societe Generale Sa (GLE FP)

Market Impact of Oil Shock

Middle East tensions continue to ratchet up, and Brent crude oil prices have risen over USD 70/bbl this weekend against a 2019 average of USD...

Thomas J. Monaco

Overweight Global Technology & Industrials

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the...

Vermilion Research

Italian Election Likely to Severely Impact Financial Sector

* A Coalition Win Creates Numerous Problems: The German government likely will drag out the timeline for new Italian elections in order to guide...

Thomas J. Monaco

Turkey Shoot

* Stronger USD on the back of higher interest rates, and higher USD-denominated oil prices are the perfect storm for the Turkish economy and...

Thomas J. Monaco

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep26: US$900mn One-Way in Jun26; Nokia + Engie ADD in Sep26

We roughly see US$900mn one way flows based on the capping of ASML June 2026. Nokia and Engie lead the rankings to become ADDs in September 2026.

Afridi Reyal

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