Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* Stronger USD on the back of higher interest rates, and higher USD-denominated oil prices are the perfect storm for the Turkish economy and TRL. * Even in a best case scenario of a soft landing and a Chinese rescue package, significant EPS downgrades are likely with 2018 GDP warnings, the pro-cyclicality of IFRS9 which will increase loan provisioning by 100 bps, and imminent loan growth deceleration on the back of higher local rates. * Economic data is weak: Current account deficit of 6.5%…

* Stronger USD on the back of higher interest rates, and higher USD-denominated oil prices are the perfect storm for the Turkish economy and TRL. * Even in a best case scenario of a soft landing and a Chinese rescue package, significant EPS downgrades are likely with 2018 GDP warnings, the pro-cyclicality of IFRS9 which will increase loan provisioning by 100 bps, and imminent loan growth deceleration on the back of higher local rates. * Economic data is weak: Current account deficit of 6.5%…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

The key for US banks in upcoming results will be the effect of lower corporate taxes on the carrying value of deferred tax assets (DTA). While not a major issue for most banks and especially money center banks, impairments will be meaningful for some. HSBC Finance also stands out here – although technically not a bank - where its DTA are exceptionally high compared with its stated net worth and more so than most all banks in the US.Operationally, what most will be looking for are improvements in…

The key for US banks in upcoming results will be the effect of lower corporate taxes on the carrying value of deferred tax assets (DTA). While not a major issue for most banks and especially money center banks, impairments will be meaningful for some. HSBC Finance also stands out here – although technically not a bank - where its DTA are exceptionally high compared with its stated net worth and more so than most all banks in the US.Operationally, what most will be looking for are improvements in…

US Banks – What to Look for in 4Q17 Results

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as well as once-laggard sectors like energy.  In addition to our weekly global market recap and outlook, today’s report highlights actionable investment opportunities in global energy stocks and European financials.

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as well as once-laggard sectors like energy.  In addition to our weekly global market recap and outlook, today’s report highlights actionable investment opportunities in global energy stocks and European financials.

Buy Energy Stocks; Brent Is Bottoming; Japan Breaking Out; Buying Opportunity in European Financials

M&A Reporting, CTFN

Jonathan Spitzer

M&A Reporting

CTFN

Bringing the marketplace leading coverage of mergers, events, and major corporate actions, CTFN has a team of seasoned reporters from Los Angeles to London, publishing news that advances stories that matter to event-driven investors and deal professionals.

Event-Driven

Unicredit, the listed Italian bank, may engage in major M&amp;A transactions in the medium term, a source close to the company and two sector bankers told CTFN.  A source close to Unicredit said: “Unicredit set ambitioustargets for its organic growth when it launched its capital increase of €13 billion. If in the next 18 -24 months the bank struggles to achieve these results, then it could look at an integration with another firm with a view of keeping a majority role.”

Unicredit, the listed Italian bank, may engage in major M&amp;A transactions in the medium term, a source close to the company and two sector bankers told CTFN.  A source close to Unicredit said: “Unicredit set ambitioustargets for its organic growth when it launched its capital increase of €13 billion. If in the next 18 -24 months the bank struggles to achieve these results, then it could look at an integration with another firm with a view of keeping a majority role.”

Major M&A Possible for Unicredit in the Medium Term

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

Eurozone inflation announced today came in "on target" at 2% for the first time in 4 years!! To give credit where credit is due, between 2001 and October 2007 the ECB had a pretty impeccable record when it came to inflation targeting. CPI as measured by Eurostat oscillated between a low of 1.6% and a high of 2.5% and averaged 2.1%. However, 2007 seems a long time ago now and in the past decade or so CPI has been at 2% on just four occasions prior to today: on each of these CPI passed through 2%…

Eurozone inflation announced today came in "on target" at 2% for the first time in 4 years!! To give credit where credit is due, between 2001 and October 2007 the ECB had a pretty impeccable record when it came to inflation targeting. CPI as measured by Eurostat oscillated between a low of 1.6% and a high of 2.5% and averaged 2.1%. However, 2007 seems a long time ago now and in the past decade or so CPI has been at 2% on just four occasions prior to today: on each of these CPI passed through 2%…

France

Societe Generale SA attracts deposits and offers commercial, retail, investment, and private banking services.  The Bank offers consumer credit, vehicle lease financing, information technology equipment leasing, life and non-life insurance, custodian services, trade and project financing, currency exchange, treasury services, and financial and commodities futures brokerage services.

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Societe Generale Sa (GLE FP)

Turkey Shoot

* Stronger USD on the back of higher interest rates, and higher USD-denominated oil prices are the perfect storm for the Turkish economy and...

Thomas J. Monaco

US Banks – What to Look for in 4Q17 Results

The key for US banks in upcoming results will be the effect of lower corporate taxes on the carrying value of deferred tax assets (DTA). While not...

Daniel Tabbush

Buy Energy Stocks; Brent Is Bottoming; Japan Breaking Out; Buying Opportunity in European Financials

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as...

Vermilion Research

Major M&A Possible for Unicredit in the Medium Term

Unicredit, the listed Italian bank, may engage in major M&A transactions in the medium term, a source close to the company and two sector...

CTFN

Money Matters: Deutschland Über Alles?

Eurozone inflation announced today came in "on target" at 2% for the first time in 4 years!! To give credit where credit is due, between 2001 and...

Stewart Paterson

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