Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<div>
Coupang, one of the largest e-commerce players in Korea, was listed on 11th Mar 2021 when it raised around US$4.5bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its US IPO.
In this note, we'll talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry.
We've covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier insights: 
</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-sticky-customers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Sticky Customers</a>, </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-the-negatives-horrendous-data-disclosures-including-no-mention-of-ott-launch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Horrendous Data Disclosures, Including No Mention of OTT Launch</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-fair-bit-of-competition-but-it-s-doing-better-than-most-local-peers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - Fair Bit of Competition but It’s Doing Better than Most Local Peers</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-earnings-forecast-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-momentum-play-unequal-lock-up-index-inclusion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO - Momentum Play, Unequal Lock-Up, Index Inclusion</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-quick-note-peers-move-down-range-moves-up-ripe-for-trading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO - Quick Note - Peers Move Down, Range Moves Up. Ripe for Trading.</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-trading-most-hit-near-term-peak-on-the-first-day-key-trading-lock-up-dates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO Trading - Most Hit near Term Peak on the First Day - Key Trading/​Lock-Up Dates</a></li>
</ul></div>


Coupang, one of the largest e-commerce players in Korea, was listed on 11th Mar 2021 when it raised around US$4.5bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its US IPO.
In this note, we'll talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry.
We've covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier insights: 


Coupang Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Sticky Customers, 
Coupang Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Horrendous Data Disclosures, Including No Mention of OTT Launch
Coupang Pre-IPO - Fair Bit of Competition but It’s Doing Better than Most Local Peers
Coupang Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation
Coupang IPO - Momentum Play, Unequal Lock-Up, Index Inclusion
Coupang IPO - Quick Note - Peers Move Down, Range Moves Up. Ripe for Trading.
Coupang IPO Trading - Most Hit near Term Peak on the First Day - Key Trading/​Lock-Up Dates


Coupang Lock-Up Expiry - Failed to Meet Multiple Lock-Up Exits; Now Hitting the US$7bn Expiry

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

With its Q1 earnings release on Friday 6 August, NTT also announced a buyback. This is the seventh large buyback in five years. The buyback programs for on-market buyback announced from 2016-2019 were ¥150bn in size, uniformly. Since then, the two on-market buybacks have been ¥250bn. One might have expected this one to be ¥150-200bn but at ¥250bn it is likely at the high end of expectations for three reasons.<ol>
<li>In order to buy back ¥300bn next time from the government, it needs to buy back ¥250bn from the market this time. </li>
<li>This larger buyback represents continued effort at offsetting the dilution from the ¥200bn share sale to Toyota in March 2020, and </li>
<li>This larger buyback represents NTT using the additional earnings power of NTT Docomo. NTT used to buy back shares from the market and from NTT, then NTT would take that cash and capital and buy back its own shares. Now NTT Docomo doesn't have to spend any money on buybacks from minority shareholders. All of its cash can go to the parent NTT. NTT therefore has more to spend on buybacks. Given several of the recent NTT Docomo buybacks were on the order of ¥300bn, the one-third of that amount which did not accrue to NTT now does. So now it accrues to NTT shareholders. </li>
</ol>I expect a buyback size of ¥250-300bn to be the new standard.Of course, this lets us take a look at NTT vs its competitors KDDI and Softbank Corp yet again, and compare the impact on the market of the various buyback programs in place.More below the fold.

With its Q1 earnings release on Friday 6 August, NTT also announced a buyback. This is the seventh large buyback in five years. The buyback programs for on-market buyback announced from 2016-2019 were ¥150bn in size, uniformly. Since then, the two on-market buybacks have been ¥250bn. One might have expected this one to be ¥150-200bn but at ¥250bn it is likely at the high end of expectations for three reasons.
In order to buy back ¥300bn next time from the government, it needs to buy back ¥250bn from the market this time. 
This larger buyback represents continued effort at offsetting the dilution from the ¥200bn share sale to Toyota in March 2020, and 
This larger buyback represents NTT using the additional earnings power of NTT Docomo. NTT used to buy back shares from the market and from NTT, then NTT would take that cash and capital and buy back its own shares. Now NTT Docomo doesn't have to spend any money on buybacks from minority shareholders. All of its cash can go to the parent NTT. NTT therefore has more to spend on buybacks. Given several of the recent NTT Docomo buybacks were on the order of ¥300bn, the one-third of that amount which did not accrue to NTT now does. So now it accrues to NTT shareholders. 
I expect a buyback size of ¥250-300bn to be the new standard.Of course, this lets us take a look at NTT vs its competitors KDDI and Softbank Corp yet again, and compare the impact on the market of the various buyback programs in place.More below the fold.

NTT Buybacks Continue - Bigger, Better, Faster, Stronger

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Financial results are largely in-line with expectations although the previously announced Z Holdings beat and higher handset sales flatter the top line.  As we saw with KDDI last week, we are seeing tangible signs of an increase in competitive intensity as aggressive pricing plans move through the market but user churn and ARPU pressure is largely as expected. Softbank appears to be weathering the storm better than KDDI so far with DoCoMo set to report Friday. With results in-line with expectations, we remain at Buy

Financial results are largely in-line with expectations although the previously announced Z Holdings beat and higher handset sales flatter the top line.  As we saw with KDDI last week, we are seeing tangible signs of an increase in competitive intensity as aggressive pricing plans move through the market but user churn and ARPU pressure is largely as expected. Softbank appears to be weathering the storm better than KDDI so far with DoCoMo set to report Friday. With results in-line with expectations, we remain at Buy

Softbank Corp (Buy) - Q1 21 Results Reaction: Revenue Beat but Largely In-Line Elsewhere

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Equity Bottom-Up

NTT senior management will not attend the Olympic opening ceremonies and with consumer-linked product demonstrations less relevant with no spectators, NTT’s promotional activity is winding down. On balance, Olympic sponsorship does not impact the valuation or investment case – any PR spend here would have went elsewhere – but we did enjoy following their participation in the torch relay on Twitter and their 2020 Olympic website is worth a look. We have tweaked our forecasts for FY21 based on management Q4 guidance and we remain at Buy with a ¥3,600 FY21-end target price.

NTT senior management will not attend the Olympic opening ceremonies and with consumer-linked product demonstrations less relevant with no spectators, NTT’s promotional activity is winding down. On balance, Olympic sponsorship does not impact the valuation or investment case – any PR spend here would have went elsewhere – but we did enjoy following their participation in the torch relay on Twitter and their 2020 Olympic website is worth a look. We have tweaked our forecasts for FY21 based on management Q4 guidance and we remain at Buy with a ¥3,600 FY21-end target price.   

NTT (Buy) - Olympic Promotions Almost Over; Meanwhile We Have Updated Numbers

JTower will expand its infrastructure footprint with the acquisition of 71 telecom towers from NTT West. With a tenancy ratio of 2.8, it should be able to extract more value from these assets than NTT and this deal (and possibly others to follow) could provide potential revenue capacity equal to 50% of JTower’s FY20 sales. That is important because JTower trades at elevated levels (30x and 85x our FY21 forecasts for revenue and EBITDA respectively) on expectations of a larger addressable market and this deal is a step in that direction. We do not cover JTower but we track the company as part of our Japanese telecom coverage.

JTower will expand its infrastructure footprint with the acquisition of 71 telecom towers from NTT West. With a tenancy ratio of 2.8, it should be able to extract more value from these assets than NTT and this deal (and possibly others to follow) could provide potential revenue capacity equal to 50% of JTower’s FY20 sales. That is important because JTower trades at elevated levels (30x and 85x our FY21 forecasts for revenue and EBITDA respectively) on expectations of a larger addressable market and this deal is a step in that direction. We do not cover JTower but we track the company as part of our Japanese telecom coverage.

JTower Inc - NTT Tower Deal a Key Step in Expanding Its Addressable Market

Japan

Softbank Corporation provides mobile phone telecommunication and networking services. The Company offers mobile communication opening, short messaging function opening, video function opening, and other services. Softbank also provides mobile phones.

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Softbank Corp (9434 JP)

Coupang Lock-Up Expiry - Failed to Meet Multiple Lock-Up Exits; Now Hitting the US$7bn Expiry

Coupang was listed on 11th Mar 2021 when it raised around US$4.5bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its US IPO. In this note,...

Sumeet Singh

NTT Buybacks Continue - Bigger, Better, Faster, Stronger

NTT Announces good earnings and a big buyback. Buybacks are normal but this buyback is the new normal, delivering NTT Docomo's earnings to NTT...

Travis Lundy

Softbank Corp (Buy) - Q1 21 Results Reaction: Revenue Beat but Largely In-Line Elsewhere

Financial results are largely in-line with expectations although the previously announced Z Holdings beat and higher handset sales flatter the top...

Kirk Boodry

NTT (Buy) - Olympic Promotions Almost Over; Meanwhile We Have Updated Numbers

Despite being a top-tier sponsor, management will not attend the Olympic opening ceremonies but an Olympics-based ad campaign may still run....

Kirk Boodry

JTower Inc - NTT Tower Deal a Key Step in Expanding Its Addressable Market

The purchase of NTT towers provides revenue capacity equal to 50% of FY20 sales and confirms expansion plans highlighted at Q4. That is key for a...

Kirk Boodry

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