Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group</li>
<li>UST yields rose 5-7 bps yesterday, unwinding earlier declines in the aftermath of the Fed’s widely expected 25 bps rate cut. This was as Chairman Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone during the press conference and signalled less support for larger rate decreases.</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST was up 5 bps at 3.55%, while the yield on the 10Y UST climbed 6 bps to 4.09%. Equities retreated slightly, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq declining 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group
UST yields rose 5-7 bps yesterday, unwinding earlier declines in the aftermath of the Fed’s widely expected 25 bps rate cut. This was as Chairman Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone during the press conference and signalled less support for larger rate decreases.
The yield on the 2Y UST was up 5 bps at 3.55%, while the yield on the 10Y UST climbed 6 bps to 4.09%. Equities retreated slightly, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq declining 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.


Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With this report, we terminate coverage of SoftBank group (SBG) shares; going forward, our coverage will be concentrated on financial and fintech stocks, with a bias towards Emerging Markets</li>
<li>SBG shares have rallied hard recently, driven by IPOs of portfolio companies, good IPO prospects for other private companies including PayPay and positive market sentiment towards AI investments</li>
<li>The group NAV’s discount has narrowed sharply to under 30%; we conclude our coverage with a neutral rating, but we stress that high expectations are baked into this narrow discount</li>
</ul>


With this report, we terminate coverage of SoftBank group (SBG) shares; going forward, our coverage will be concentrated on financial and fintech stocks, with a bias towards Emerging Markets
SBG shares have rallied hard recently, driven by IPOs of portfolio companies, good IPO prospects for other private companies including PayPay and positive market sentiment towards AI investments
The group NAV’s discount has narrowed sharply to under 30%; we conclude our coverage with a neutral rating, but we stress that high expectations are baked into this narrow discount


SoftBank Group (9984 JP): Our Last Review of Quarterly Data

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">SoftBank's (9984 JP)</a> Q1 results on 7 August delivered a return to profitability and earnings beat, fueling one of the stock’s biggest post-results rallies in 15 years.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Shares jumped 10.4% on 8 August and nearly 20% week-on-week, with implied volatility staying elevated above 40% despite the surge.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Review price action and options market response, showing how SoftBank’s post-earnings volatility pattern echoes past announcements. Serves as a documented reference for the next earnings event.</li>
</ul>



Context:SoftBank's (9984 JP) Q1 results on 7 August delivered a return to profitability and earnings beat, fueling one of the stock’s biggest post-results rallies in 15 years.

Highlight: Shares jumped 10.4% on 8 August and nearly 20% week-on-week, with implied volatility staying elevated above 40% despite the surge.

Why Read: Review price action and options market response, showing how SoftBank’s post-earnings volatility pattern echoes past announcements. Serves as a documented reference for the next earnings event.


SoftBank (9984 JP): Earnings Beat and the Missing Volatility Crush

Co-Founder & CEO, Newmark Risk

Nicholas Pezolano

Co-Founder & CEO

Option analytics for institutional investors

Newmark Risk

Fin-tech company focused on providing option derived analytics for institutional investors.

We handle the complexity of options data so you don't have to.

- Data and Analytics available all in one place so you can focus on Strategy Development
- Custom Solutions for your data and/or portfolio needs
- Advisory services to lend our expertise

Knowledge is something that was meant to be shared and we provide insights to our clients and to the community via posting about our research findings.

Equity Derivatives

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Equity Derivatives

<ul><li>A cross-country study on the post earning announcement drift effect.</li><li>We explore the use of various options-implied analytics to systematically view returns around earnings announcements.  </li><li>Options-Implied Analytics can provide empowering information to better inform investment decisions.</li></ul>

A cross-country study on the post earning announcement drift effect.We explore the use of various options-implied analytics to systematically view returns around earnings announcements.  Options-Implied Analytics can provide empowering information to better inform investment decisions.

EQD | A Systematic Look at the Post Earnings Announcement Drift Across Asia

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.</li>
</ul>


There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group UST yields rose 5-7 bps...

Lucror Analytics