Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The past nine months have been a wild ride. The industry has largely avoided the disruption of Covid-19 but NTT’s ¥4 trillion DoCoMo restructuring and regulatory-driven price reductions have shaken things up whilst competition from Rakuten is likely to heat up as it raises cash and accelerates investment. Mobile revenues will be down but that can be made up in other areas and whilst profitability in FY21 is flat at best and likely down modestly, shareholder returns are stable to growing.  NTT and KDDI are top picks with Softbank offering modest upside whilst we are more cautious on Rakuten after a 46% YTD run which largely captures the upside potential a more competitive mobile service offers.

The past nine months have been a wild ride. The industry has largely avoided the disruption of Covid-19 but NTT’s ¥4 trillion DoCoMo restructuring and regulatory-driven price reductions have shaken things up whilst competition from Rakuten is likely to heat up as it raises cash and accelerates investment. Mobile revenues will be down but that can be made up in other areas and whilst profitability in FY21 is flat at best and likely down modestly, shareholder returns are stable to growing.  NTT and KDDI are top picks with Softbank offering modest upside whilst we are more cautious on Rakuten after a 46% YTD run which largely captures the upside potential a more competitive mobile service offers.

Japan Telecom Sector: FY21 Will Be Tougher and More Competitive but Returns Can Still Rise

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Europe HY Trade Book for April 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for April 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - April 2021 - Lucror Analytics

Equity Bottom-Up

Z Holdings shares have sold off on disappointment over mid-term profitability targets that remain unchanged despite the addition of Line and possible synergies (and equity dilution). But management believes investments will pay off with stronger top-line growth. Some of its aspirational targets (like eCommerce leadership) seem to be a stretch but we do think that the merger gives it the resources to compete with heavyweights like Google (online ads), Facebook (social media), Amazon (eCommerce) and Rakuten (fintech). We are initiating coverage at Buy with a <a target="_blank">¥680 </a>FY21 (Mar-22) target price.

Z Holdings shares have sold off on disappointment over mid-term profitability targets that remain unchanged despite the addition of Line and possible synergies (and equity dilution). But management believes investments will pay off with stronger top-line growth. Some of its aspirational targets (like eCommerce leadership) seem to be a stretch but we do think that the merger gives it the resources to compete with heavyweights like Google (online ads), Facebook (social media), Amazon (eCommerce) and Rakuten (fintech). We are initiating coverage at Buy with a ¥680 FY21 (Mar-22) target price.

Z Holdings - Great Expectations On (The) LINE (Initiation of Coverage)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Traditionally, telecom companies in mature markets are "easy."  Infrastructure is basically built, but there is always maintenance and capex to upgrade throughput. Churn is low. Customers occasionally add on new services. They are generally cash machines. Comparing telcos is often reasonably easy. Mostly it comes down to how aggressively the company prices to customers, how it seeks non-standard revenue off its infrastructure and sales base, or how it returns capital to shareholders. <div class="content-highlight">Every now and then, a telecom company gets complicated. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> is now one of those companies.</div>The issue is now significant enough that one should avoid using EBIT or EBITDA (or EBITDA less capex) for Softbank Corp as a comparative tool to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> without more clarity. There is recently a new kicker involved too, which means one should probably consider Softbank Corp differently than the other two for OTHER reasons too.

Traditionally, telecom companies in mature markets are "easy."  Infrastructure is basically built, but there is always maintenance and capex to upgrade throughput. Churn is low. Customers occasionally add on new services. They are generally cash machines. Comparing telcos is often reasonably easy. Mostly it comes down to how aggressively the company prices to customers, how it seeks non-standard revenue off its infrastructure and sales base, or how it returns capital to shareholders. Every now and then, a telecom company gets complicated. Softbank Corp (9434 JP) is now one of those companies.The issue is now significant enough that one should avoid using EBIT or EBITDA (or EBITDA less capex) for Softbank Corp as a comparative tool to NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) without more clarity. There is recently a new kicker involved too, which means one should probably consider Softbank Corp differently than the other two for OTHER reasons too. 

Softbank Corp - Accounting for The Accounting Is Complicated

Insurance, Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Insurance, Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance C / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongan-online-p-c-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23681:1" rel="noopener">ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance (6060 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lemonade-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29163:1" rel="noopener">Lemonade Inc (LMND US)</a> are two widely known Insurtech companies in the world's two largest property &amp; casualty (P&amp;C) insurance markets</li>
<li>Based on the comparison in the following article, ZhongAn is preferred to Lemonade, both in terms of the valuation and company development</li>
<li>ZhongAn further showed encouraging signs in 2020 as it shifted the product mix towards the health segment, thanks to the pandemic, and its combined ratio was at the lowest since it started operations  </li>
</ul>



ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance (6060 HK) and Lemonade Inc (LMND US) are two widely known Insurtech companies in the world's two largest property &amp; casualty (P&amp;C) insurance markets
Based on the comparison in the following article, ZhongAn is preferred to Lemonade, both in terms of the valuation and company development
ZhongAn further showed encouraging signs in 2020 as it shifted the product mix towards the health segment, thanks to the pandemic, and its combined ratio was at the lowest since it started operations  


ZhongAn Vs. Lemonade: Which One Is a Better Insurtech Bet?

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Japan Telecom Sector: FY21 Will Be Tougher and More Competitive but Returns Can Still Rise

FY21 will be a tough year for mobile with 5% service revenue erosion but new services provide some offset and returns to shareholders can still...

Kirk Boodry

Europe HY Trade Book - April 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for April 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Z Holdings - Great Expectations On (The) LINE (Initiation of Coverage)

Z Holdings has sold off on disappointment over profitability targets that remain unchanged despite the addition of Line but near-term investments...

Kirk Boodry

Softbank Corp - Accounting for The Accounting Is Complicated

Softbank Corporation is more expensive than it appears when one uses traditional telco metrics such as EV/EBITDA or EV/OP multiples. It's all in...

Travis Lundy

ZhongAn Vs. Lemonade: Which One Is a Better Insurtech Bet?

With encouraging signs shown in 2020, ZhongAn Online is preferred to Lemonade, both from the perspectives of the valuation and company development.

Alec Tseung

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