Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Silchester's effort to raise awareness in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugoku-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11177:1" rel="noopener">Chugoku Bank (8382 JP)</a> failed. Still, if you had a basket of regional bank longs and shorts, Chugoku would be in the short basket. </li>
<li>Dye &amp; Durham reloads a higher Offer after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>'s rejection. This probably still needs a (small) bump in terms to get up. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>is trading at a significant discount to its SOTP. A part of its Fintech segment (Rakuten Bank) could be worth ~50% of total market cap.</li>
</ul>


Silchester's effort to raise awareness in Chugoku Bank (8382 JP) failed. Still, if you had a basket of regional bank longs and shorts, Chugoku would be in the short basket. 
Dye &amp; Durham reloads a higher Offer after Link Administration (LNK AU)'s rejection. This probably still needs a (small) bump in terms to get up. 

Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)is trading at a significant discount to its SOTP. A part of its Fintech segment (Rakuten Bank) could be worth ~50% of total market cap.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Chugoku Bank, Link Admin, Rakuten, Tassal, Pipedo

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The amended Cayman Islands Act is yet to become law which increases the odds that the headcount test remains for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a>'s court meeting on 26 April. </li>
<li>Since the despatch of the scheme document, the gross spread has narrowed to 7.6% (last close). Current deal probability implies an 80% chance of success.</li>
<li>The rising deal probability negatively skews the risk/reward profile. We are hesitant to be long this trade into a scheme meeting that is too close to call.</li>
</ul>


The amended Cayman Islands Act is yet to become law which increases the odds that the headcount test remains for Razer Inc (1337 HK)'s court meeting on 26 April. 
Since the despatch of the scheme document, the gross spread has narrowed to 7.6% (last close). Current deal probability implies an 80% chance of success.
The rising deal probability negatively skews the risk/reward profile. We are hesitant to be long this trade into a scheme meeting that is too close to call.


Razer’s Offer Risk/Reward Ahead of the 26 April Scheme Meeting

<ul>
<li>China's State Administration for Market Supervision is reviewing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a>'s privatisation as a simple case. </li>
<li>With the key regulatory pre-condition all but satisfied, the Scheme timeline will significantly shorten from hereon. </li>
<li>Expect shares to narrow into terms at the bell tomorrow. </li>
</ul>


China's State Administration for Market Supervision is reviewing Razer Inc (1337 HK)'s privatisation as a simple case. 
With the key regulatory pre-condition all but satisfied, the Scheme timeline will significantly shorten from hereon. 
Expect shares to narrow into terms at the bell tomorrow. 


Razer (1337 HK): SAMR Takes It On In Simple Procedure

<ul>
<li>At the end of each week, reportable net short positions are filed with the SFC. Aggregated figures are published 1 week after the reference date. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yanzhou-coal-mining-company-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited H (1171 HK)</a> has seen its short interest increase 9.7 ppts in 2021. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind Science (2208 HK)</a>'s short interest declined 12.4 ppts.</li>
<li>Sector-Specific, short interest in Financial stocks declined. There has been an increase in short interest in both the Industrial and Materials sectors. </li>
</ul>


At the end of each week, reportable net short positions are filed with the SFC. Aggregated figures are published 1 week after the reference date. 

Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited H (1171 HK) has seen its short interest increase 9.7 ppts in 2021. Xinjiang Goldwind Science (2208 HK)'s short interest declined 12.4 ppts.
Sector-Specific, short interest in Financial stocks declined. There has been an increase in short interest in both the Industrial and Materials sectors. 


Hong Kong's Short Interest: Year In Review

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a> has announced a pre-conditional <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/1202/2021120200081.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme</a> from its founders and CVC at HK$2.82/share, a 55.8% premium to the undisturbed price. The Offer price will NOT be increased.</li>
<li>The Founder Group holds 56.77%. Disinterested Shareholders comprise 42.78%. The blocking stake at the Scheme Meeting is 4.278% of shares out. </li>
<li>The pre-conditions include PRC anti-trust approval. This should not be an issue. But timing is the key risk to the deal. No dividends will be paid before the Effective Date. </li>
</ul>



Razer Inc (1337 HK) has announced a pre-conditional Scheme from its founders and CVC at HK$2.82/share, a 55.8% premium to the undisturbed price. The Offer price will NOT be increased.
The Founder Group holds 56.77%. Disinterested Shareholders comprise 42.78%. The blocking stake at the Scheme Meeting is 4.278% of shares out. 
The pre-conditions include PRC anti-trust approval. This should not be an issue. But timing is the key risk to the deal. No dividends will be paid before the Effective Date. 


China

Soho China Ltd. is a property developer. The Company develops properties in central Beijing and Shanghai. Soho China collaborates with internationally recognized architects, translating their designs into real estate which possesses strong appeal to property investors and the local businesses and customer bases they serve.

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Soho China (410 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Chugoku Bank, Link Admin, Rakuten, Tassal, Pipedo

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Razer’s Offer Risk/Reward Ahead of the 26 April Scheme Meeting

The amended Cayman Islands Act is yet to become law increasing the odds that the headcount test remains. We are hesitant to be long this trade into...

Arun George

Razer (1337 HK): SAMR Takes It On In Simple Procedure

SAMR is reviewing Razer Inc (1337 HK) privatisation as a simple case. With the key regulatory pre-condition all but satisfied, expect the Scheme...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong's Short Interest: Year In Review

There will be further short selling in the market which is not captured under the reporting guidelines. However, what is reported by the SFC does...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Chugoku Bank, Link Admin, Rakuten, Tassal, Pipedo

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Razer’s Offer Risk/Reward Ahead of the 26 April Scheme Meeting

The amended Cayman Islands Act is yet to become law increasing the odds that the headcount test remains. We are hesitant to be long this trade into...

Arun George

Razer (1337 HK): SAMR Takes It On In Simple Procedure

SAMR is reviewing Razer Inc (1337 HK) privatisation as a simple case. With the key regulatory pre-condition all but satisfied, expect the Scheme...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong's Short Interest: Year In Review

There will be further short selling in the market which is not captured under the reporting guidelines. However, what is reported by the SFC does...

David Blennerhassett

Razer (1337 HK): $2.82/Share Final Offer

I'd be a buyer up to $2.50/share or 13%/27% gross/annualised. That may seem wide, but given Hong Kong's M&A bloodbath this year, this seems a...

David Blennerhassett