Macro, FX and Rates Strategist

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Long Solar Industries from 13 March at Rs14,251 has returned +57% in rupees, +52% in dollars, at the 8 September close. We take profit on half and hold the balance.</li>
<li>The policy thesis delivered and accelerated, with tactical missile production opened to private firms and transfer of DRDO's conventional missile technologies to industry approved. The France-Pinaka order did not arrive. </li>
<li>Key risks: the defence book is flat at Rs18,000 crore while coverage compressed from 13x to 5.7x, free cash flow turned negative and the stock trades at 102x trailing earnings.</li>
</ul>


Long Solar Industries from 13 March at Rs14,251 has returned +57% in rupees, +52% in dollars, at the 8 September close. We take profit on half and hold the balance.
The policy thesis delivered and accelerated, with tactical missile production opened to private firms and transfer of DRDO's conventional missile technologies to industry approved. The France-Pinaka order did not arrive. 
Key risks: the defence book is flat at Rs18,000 crore while coverage compressed from 13x to 5.7x, free cash flow turned negative and the stock trades at 102x trailing earnings.


The Re-Rating Delivered. The Order Book Hasn’t - Solar Industries, Six Months On

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>FY26 defence production reached Rs. 1.78 lakh crore and exports Rs. 38,424 crore, while capability gaps remain in electronics, seekers, counter-drone systems, secure networks and materials.</li>
<li>Platform assembly creates volume; design authority, embedded software and subsystem IP can create recurring upgrades, higher switching costs and export freedom.</li>
<li>BEL is the broadest proxy, while Data Patterns, Astra Microwave, Paras Defence and Zen offer narrower technology exposure. HAL, BDL and Solar remain execution-led plays.</li>
</ul>


FY26 defence production reached Rs. 1.78 lakh crore and exports Rs. 38,424 crore, while capability gaps remain in electronics, seekers, counter-drone systems, secure networks and materials.
Platform assembly creates volume; design authority, embedded software and subsystem IP can create recurring upgrades, higher switching costs and export freedom.
BEL is the broadest proxy, while Data Patterns, Astra Microwave, Paras Defence and Zen offer narrower technology exposure. HAL, BDL and Solar remain execution-led plays.


India's Defence Opportunity Is Shifting From Platforms To Technology

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>India’s Defense Acquisition Council approved INR 2.38 lakh crore proposals on March 27, 2026, taking total FY26 approvals to ~INR 9.3 lakh crore across Army, Air Force, and Coast Guard.</li>
<li>The pace and scale of approvals reinforce a multi-year procurement cycle, with indigenization becoming structural, expanding opportunities for domestic defence PSUs and private sector players.</li>
<li>
Stronger order visibility led by BEL, improving execution clarity for HAL, BDL’s indigenization progress, and Astra Microwave’s restructuring position the sector for sustained growth momentum.</li>
</ul>


India’s Defense Acquisition Council approved INR 2.38 lakh crore proposals on March 27, 2026, taking total FY26 approvals to ~INR 9.3 lakh crore across Army, Air Force, and Coast Guard.
The pace and scale of approvals reinforce a multi-year procurement cycle, with indigenization becoming structural, expanding opportunities for domestic defence PSUs and private sector players.

Stronger order visibility led by BEL, improving execution clarity for HAL, BDL’s indigenization progress, and Astra Microwave’s restructuring position the sector for sustained growth momentum.


Thematic Report: India Defense Sector - Moving Into Growth Phase

<ul>
<li>Government policy, exemplified by a massive INR 7 lakh crore ($85 billion) pipeline in the last two years and accelerating export momentum, is resulting in a structural growth cycle.</li>
<li>This conversion provides multi-year revenue visibility (3-7x Book-to-Bill for key PSUs) and fundamentally shifts the industry model from import-driven acquisition to sustained indigenous manufacturing and maintenance, fueling a sustained re-rating.</li>
<li>The defence sector has crossed an point where execution is the new alpha; investors must closely monitor supply chain resilience around critical component imports, and the timing of mega-order conversions.</li>
</ul>


Government policy, exemplified by a massive INR 7 lakh crore ($85 billion) pipeline in the last two years and accelerating export momentum, is resulting in a structural growth cycle.
This conversion provides multi-year revenue visibility (3-7x Book-to-Bill for key PSUs) and fundamentally shifts the industry model from import-driven acquisition to sustained indigenous manufacturing and maintenance, fueling a sustained re-rating.
The defence sector has crossed an point where execution is the new alpha; investors must closely monitor supply chain resilience around critical component imports, and the timing of mega-order conversions.


Thematic Report on India's Defence Sector: The 'Atmanirbhar' Capex Cycle Hits Acceleration

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.</li>
<li>We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.
We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

India

Solar Industries India Limited manufactures and supplies explosives and explosives accessories. The company's products include bulk, cartridge, detonators, detonating cords Pentaerythritol Tetranitrate ("PETN"), and cast boosters.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Solar Industries India (SOIL IN)

The Re-Rating Delivered. The Order Book Hasn’t - Solar Industries, Six Months On

A +57% policy trade marked honestly. The re-rating came, the order book didn't, free cash flow turned negative and the stock sits at 102x. We cut...

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

India's Defence Opportunity Is Shifting From Platforms To Technology

India’s defence opportunity is shifting from platform manufacturing to IP, electronics and design authority, favouring firms with technology depth...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report: India Defense Sector - Moving Into Growth Phase

India's Defense Acquisition Council approved INR 2.38 lakh crore proposals, reinforcing a multi-year procurement cycle and boosting opportunities...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Thematic Report on India's Defence Sector: The 'Atmanirbhar' Capex Cycle Hits Acceleration

Government policy driving massive defense pipeline and export growth is shifting industry model towards sustained indigenous manufacturing,...

Nimish Maheshwari

MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

MSCI $ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade; Buying Korean Financials $WF $SHG $KB and Hana. Still Bullish, expecting...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Re-Rating Delivered. The Order Book Hasn’t - Solar Industries, Six Months On

A +57% policy trade marked honestly. The re-rating came, the order book didn't, free cash flow turned negative and the stock sits at 102x. We cut...

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

India's Defence Opportunity Is Shifting From Platforms To Technology

India’s defence opportunity is shifting from platform manufacturing to IP, electronics and design authority, favouring firms with technology depth...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report: India Defense Sector - Moving Into Growth Phase

​India's Defense Acquisition Council approved INR 2.38 lakh crore proposals, reinforcing a multi-year procurement cycle and boosting opportunities...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Thematic Report on India's Defence Sector: The 'Atmanirbhar' Capex Cycle Hits Acceleration

​Government policy driving massive defense pipeline and export growth is shifting industry model towards sustained indigenous manufacturing,...

Nimish Maheshwari

MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

MSCI $ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade; Buying Korean Financials $WF $SHG $KB and Hana. Still Bullish, expecting...

Vermilion Research

India's Defense Acquisition Council approved INR 2.38 lakh crore proposals, reinforcing a multi-year procurement cycle and boosting opportunities...

Government policy driving massive defense pipeline and export growth is shifting industry model towards sustained indigenous manufacturing,...