Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in June 2024, the Aussie Treasurer made orders requiring Singapore-based Yuxiao and four (deemed) associated investors to sell their shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20445:1" rel="noopener">Northern Minerals (NTU AU)</a> within 60 days.</li>
<li>I discussed this situation in <a href="https://skr.ma/7iWo4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Northern Minerals (NMI AU): Chinese Investors Forced To Exit</a>. One shareholder, Indian Ocean International Shipping, stonewalled, and was subsequently fined A$14mn late last year. </li>
<li>The latest news concerns Beijing-based Vastness Investment Group, Northern Minerals largest shareholder (7.7%), withdrawing its requisition to oust Adam Handley (chairman). These developments appear geared to stress-testing Aussie foreign investment.</li>
</ul>


Back in June 2024, the Aussie Treasurer made orders requiring Singapore-based Yuxiao and four (deemed) associated investors to sell their shares in Northern Minerals (NTU AU) within 60 days.
I discussed this situation in Northern Minerals (NMI AU): Chinese Investors Forced To Exit. One shareholder, Indian Ocean International Shipping, stonewalled, and was subsequently fined A$14mn late last year. 
The latest news concerns Beijing-based Vastness Investment Group, Northern Minerals largest shareholder (7.7%), withdrawing its requisition to oust Adam Handley (chairman). These developments appear geared to stress-testing Aussie foreign investment.


Northern Minerals (NTU AU): More Board Games

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On Sunday 9th of February, the people of Ecuador headed to the polls to elect a new president. The first round was narrowly won by incumbent Noboa.</li>
<li>A run-off between Noboa and Gonzalez is planned for April 13th. A victory for either candidate is bullish Ecuador mining companies as both have a pro-mining stance.</li>
<li>Solaris Resources has been often targeted by anti-mining protestors in the past but a new stable government and a new Solaris CEO could catapult stock higher.</li>
</ul>


On Sunday 9th of February, the people of Ecuador headed to the polls to elect a new president. The first round was narrowly won by incumbent Noboa.
A run-off between Noboa and Gonzalez is planned for April 13th. A victory for either candidate is bullish Ecuador mining companies as both have a pro-mining stance.
Solaris Resources has been often targeted by anti-mining protestors in the past but a new stable government and a new Solaris CEO could catapult stock higher.


Solaris Resources: Elections in Ecuador Bullish for Commodity Stocks

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/solaris-resources-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40176:1" rel="noopener">Solaris Resources (SLS CN)</a> announced sweeping changes to its management and ties to Canada. It will also spin-off some of its exploration targets in a new company.</li>
<li>While its listing will remain in Canada for now, its physical presence in the country will cease and operations will be run out of Switzerland, Ecuador and Peru.</li>
<li>The shake-up is an answer to the Canadian government's decision earlier this year blocking Chinese <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a> from making an investment in Solaris.</li>
</ul>



Solaris Resources (SLS CN) announced sweeping changes to its management and ties to Canada. It will also spin-off some of its exploration targets in a new company.
While its listing will remain in Canada for now, its physical presence in the country will cease and operations will be run out of Switzerland, Ecuador and Peru.
The shake-up is an answer to the Canadian government's decision earlier this year blocking Chinese Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) from making an investment in Solaris.


Solaris Resources: Showing Canada the Middle Finger

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN)</a> has been roaring over the past three weeks on the back of ...no official news!</li>
<li>As we highlighted in our prior insights we expected an arbitration ruling by late 3Q24, but there has been no news published by Entree or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> </li>
<li>Volume spike and price action remind us of Turquoise Hill buyout in 2022.</li>
</ul>



Entree Resources (ETG CN) has been roaring over the past three weeks on the back of ...no official news!
As we highlighted in our prior insights we expected an arbitration ruling by late 3Q24, but there has been no news published by Entree or Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) 
Volume spike and price action remind us of Turquoise Hill buyout in 2022.


Entree Resources: +84% YTD on Arbitration Leak? Or Rio Tinto M&A Speculation?

<ul>
<li>Back in February last year, the Aussie Treasurer <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/F2023N00026/asmade/text" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prohibited</a> Yuxiao Fund from buying an additional 9.92% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20445:1" rel="noopener">Northern Minerals (NTU AU)</a> which would have increased its stake to 19.9%.</li>
<li>On the <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20231121/pdf/05xl2d4q74m61v.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">20th November 2023</a>, Yuxiao sought the removal of Nicholas Curtis as director of the rare-metal play at an EGM; however Curtis <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240527/pdf/063yqlgvx8zbll.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">resigned his post</a> and the EGM cancelled.</li>
<li>The Aussie Treasurer has <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/F2024N00475/latest/text" target="_blank" rel="noopener">now made orders</a> requiring Yuxiao and four (deemed) associated investors to sell their holdings (~10.4% all-in) within 60 days. </li>
</ul>


Back in February last year, the Aussie Treasurer prohibited Yuxiao Fund from buying an additional 9.92% in Northern Minerals (NTU AU) which would have increased its stake to 19.9%.
On the 20th November 2023, Yuxiao sought the removal of Nicholas Curtis as director of the rare-metal play at an EGM; however Curtis resigned his post and the EGM cancelled.
The Aussie Treasurer has now made orders requiring Yuxiao and four (deemed) associated investors to sell their holdings (~10.4% all-in) within 60 days. 


Northern Minerals (NTU AU): Chinese Investors Forced To Exit

Canada

Solaris Resources Inc. provides exploration and mining services. The Company explores and develops copper and gold projects in the Americas. Solaris Resources serves customers worldwide.

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Solaris Resources (SLS CN)

Northern Minerals (NTU AU): More Board Games

FIRB scrutiny regarding Chinese-linked investments and board control have overshadowed Northern Minerals. I'd be surprised if further similarly...

David Blennerhassett

Solaris Resources: Elections in Ecuador Bullish for Commodity Stocks

Ecuador's upcoming presidential election runoff between Noboa and Gonzalez could benefit mining companies, like Solaris Resources, with a pro...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Solaris Resources: Showing Canada the Middle Finger

Solaris Resources announces management changes and spin-off, shifting operations out of Canada in response to government restrictions on Chinese...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Entree Resources: +84% YTD on Arbitration Leak? Or Rio Tinto M&A Speculation?

Entree Resources (ETG CN) surges without official news, reminiscent of Turquoise Hill buyout in 2022, as investors await arbitration ruling with...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Northern Minerals (NTU AU): Chinese Investors Forced To Exit

I don't have a strong conviction either way on Northern Minerals here; but the expulsion of Yuxiao, an agitating presence, removes an overhang....

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Northern Minerals (NTU AU): More Board Games

FIRB scrutiny regarding Chinese-linked investments and board control have overshadowed Northern Minerals. I'd be surprised if further similarly...

David Blennerhassett

Solaris Resources: Elections in Ecuador Bullish for Commodity Stocks

​Ecuador's upcoming presidential election runoff between Noboa and Gonzalez could benefit mining companies, like Solaris Resources, with a pro...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Solaris Resources: Showing Canada the Middle Finger

​Solaris Resources announces management changes and spin-off, shifting operations out of Canada in response to government restrictions on Chinese...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Entree Resources: +84% YTD on Arbitration Leak? Or Rio Tinto M&A Speculation?

​Entree Resources (ETG CN) surges without official news, reminiscent of Turquoise Hill buyout in 2022, as investors await arbitration ruling with...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Northern Minerals (NTU AU): Chinese Investors Forced To Exit

I don't have a strong conviction either way on Northern Minerals here; but the expulsion of Yuxiao, an agitating presence, removes an overhang....

David Blennerhassett

Ecuador's upcoming presidential election runoff between Noboa and Gonzalez could benefit mining companies, like Solaris Resources, with a pro...

Solaris Resources announces management changes and spin-off, shifting operations out of Canada in response to government restrictions on Chinese...

Entree Resources (ETG CN) surges without official news, reminiscent of Turquoise Hill buyout in 2022, as investors await arbitration ruling with...