Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 9 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> in June. Most of the adds and all of the deletes were forecast.</li>
<li>The index committee have used their discretion and kept <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fadu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39896:1" rel="noopener">Fadu (440110 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snh-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12212:1" rel="noopener">Snh Inc (051980 KS)</a> out of the index for yet another rebalance - no reason provided.</li>
<li>There's been little movement in the relative performance of the adds/deletes the last few months. The announcement of the changes could see the stocks move over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 9 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) in June. Most of the adds and all of the deletes were forecast.
The index committee have used their discretion and kept Fadu (440110 KS) and Snh Inc (051980 KS) out of the index for yet another rebalance - no reason provided.
There's been little movement in the relative performance of the adds/deletes the last few months. The announcement of the changes could see the stocks move over the next few weeks.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 9 Changes as Fadu Ignored Again

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Korea Exchange announced its KOSPI200 rebalance changes on 27 May. It added 8 companies and deleted 8 companies. KRX also added 9 companies and deleted 9 companies in KOSDAQ 150. </li>
<li>These 8 new inclusions in KOSPI200 are up on average 49.8% in the past one year. The 8 deletions to KOSPI200 are down on average 45.2% in the past one year.</li>
<li>There were numerous surprises to the KOSDAQ150 rebalances.  In particular, three companies are relative surprises to the KOSDAQ150 additions including Solid Inc, Zeus Co, and Wemade Max.   </li>
</ul>


Korea Exchange announced its KOSPI200 rebalance changes on 27 May. It added 8 companies and deleted 8 companies. KRX also added 9 companies and deleted 9 companies in KOSDAQ 150. 
These 8 new inclusions in KOSPI200 are up on average 49.8% in the past one year. The 8 deletions to KOSPI200 are down on average 45.2% in the past one year.
There were numerous surprises to the KOSDAQ150 rebalances.  In particular, three companies are relative surprises to the KOSDAQ150 additions including Solid Inc, Zeus Co, and Wemade Max.   


KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 Constituent Changes Announced: A Few Surprises

<ul>
<li>Just over halfway through the review period for the June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a>, there could be 10 constituent changes.</li>
<li>The estimated impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.03-3.6 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.8-4.3 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The list of forecast adds and deletes has been fairly stable over the last month. The forecast adds have run up at a blistering pace and outperformed the forecast deletes.</li>
</ul>


Just over halfway through the review period for the June rebalance of the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX), there could be 10 constituent changes.
The estimated impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.03-3.6 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.8-4.3 days of ADV.
The list of forecast adds and deletes has been fairly stable over the last month. The forecast adds have run up at a blistering pace and outperformed the forecast deletes.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes a Side; Strong Outperformance

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the June 2021 review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a>  in May with the changes becoming effective after the close of trading on 10 June.We see 14 potential changes to the index in the June review and we are less than a third of the way through the review period. The end of the short sell ban in March could bring a lot more changes to the index.The potential inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8792:1" rel="noopener">Tesna Inc (131970 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unison-co-ltd-south-korea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18617:1" rel="noopener">Unison Co Ltd (018000 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tse-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17821:1" rel="noopener">Tse Co Ltd (131290 KS)</a>, ABPro Bio (195990 KS), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icure-pharm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27142:1" rel="noopener">Icure Pharm Inc (175250 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sam-kang-m-t-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7263:1" rel="noopener">Sam Kang M&amp;T (100090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/simmtech-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28871:1" rel="noopener">SIMMTECH Co Ltd (222800 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/binex-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1949:1" rel="noopener">Binex Co Ltd (053030 KS)</a>, Vaxcell Bio (323990 KS), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kmh-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18525:1" rel="noopener">Kmh Co Ltd (122450 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/solid-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14701:1" rel="noopener">Solid Inc (050890 KS)</a>, PSK Inc (319660 KS), AJu IB Investment (027360 KS) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kpm-tech-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15948:1" rel="noopener">Kpm Tech Co Ltd (042040 KS)</a>. The potential exclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stcube" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4872:1" rel="noopener">Stcube (052020 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daea-ti-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1473:1" rel="noopener">Daea Ti Co Ltd (045390 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spigen-korea-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9852:1" rel="noopener">Spigen Korea (192440 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jusung-engineering-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12277:1" rel="noopener">Jusung Engineering (036930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-process-systems-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24087:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Process Systems (265520 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saraminhr-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8494:1" rel="noopener">Saraminhr (143240 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vt-gmp-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8056:1" rel="noopener">Gmp Co Ltd (018290 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iriver-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13005:1" rel="noopener">Iriver Ltd (060570 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innox-advanced-materials-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24223:1" rel="noopener">Innox Advanced Materials Co,Ltd. (272290 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebest-investment-securitie" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18895:1" rel="noopener">Ebest Investment &amp; Securitie (078020 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sangsangin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10494:1" rel="noopener">Sangsangin Co., Ltd. (038540 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinheung-sec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24426:1" rel="noopener">Shin Heung Energy &amp; Electronics Co (243840 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/neopharm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10273:1" rel="noopener">Neopharm Co Ltd (092730 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hlscience-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23629:1" rel="noopener">HLSCIENCE Co. (239610 KS)</a>.One-way turnover is estimated at 5.44%. While the impact of passive funds is not high on the expected inclusions, the impact on the expected exclusions is much higher.

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the June 2021 review of the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)  in May with the changes becoming effective after the close of trading on 10 June.We see 14 potential changes to the index in the June review and we are less than a third of the way through the review period. The end of the short sell ban in March could bring a lot more changes to the index.The potential inclusions are Tesna Inc (131970 KS), Unison Co Ltd (018000 KS), Tse Co Ltd (131290 KS), ABPro Bio (195990 KS), Icure Pharm Inc (175250 KS), Sam Kang M&amp;T (100090 KS), SIMMTECH Co Ltd (222800 KS), Binex Co Ltd (053030 KS), Vaxcell Bio (323990 KS), Kmh Co Ltd (122450 KS), Solid Inc (050890 KS), PSK Inc (319660 KS), AJu IB Investment (027360 KS) and Kpm Tech Co Ltd (042040 KS). The potential exclusions are Stcube (052020 KS), Daea Ti Co Ltd (045390 KS), Spigen Korea (192440 KS), Jusung Engineering (036930 KS), Advanced Process Systems (265520 KS), Saraminhr (143240 KS), Gmp Co Ltd (018290 KS), Iriver Ltd (060570 KS), Innox Advanced Materials Co,Ltd. (272290 KS), Ebest Investment &amp; Securitie (078020 KS), Sangsangin Co., Ltd. (038540 KS), Shin Heung Energy &amp; Electronics Co (243840 KS), Neopharm Co Ltd (092730 KS) and HLSCIENCE Co. (239610 KS).One-way turnover is estimated at 5.44%. While the impact of passive funds is not high on the expected inclusions, the impact on the expected exclusions is much higher.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Changes Expected Already; More to Come

Equity Bottom-Up

In this report, we discuss a shorting opportunity of a Korean telecom equipment maker called <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kmw-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2834:1" rel="noopener">Kmw Co Ltd (032500 KS)</a> whose share price has surged 213% YTD. KMW currently has a market cap of 2.7 trillion won ($2.3 billion). The company has never generated positive operating profit from 2015 to 2018. However, the consensus expects the company to generate sales of 809 billion won (up 173% YoY) and an operating profit of 161 billion won in 2019 (from operating loss of 31 billion won in 2018). The key driver of the company's sales and profits has been the explosive demand for its 5G equipment products.<div class="content-highlight">The average product prices of the company's RF System products soared by 200% from 2.4 million won in 2018 to 7.2 million won in 1H19 and we do not believe this kind of pricing leverage is sustainable in a highly cut-throat global telecom equipment industry. In addition, the global telcos (including the ones in Korea) are notorious for cutting telecom equipment prices as much as possible and they make a lot of effort at diversifying their supplier base. </div>So we think that the 25%+ operating margin assumption for KMW in 2020 and 2021 are probably too high and the sell-side analysts may be too optimistic in their earnings forecasts. In our view, about a 15% average operating margin assumption for the company is more reasonable in 2020 and 2021 for KMW, which means that the consensus operating profit estimates in 2020 and 2021 are probably overstated by about 40% in our view. All in all, we believe that shares of KMW are overvalued by about 40% and we believe the company's intrinsic value is closer to 1.6 trillion won (market cap) or 41,000 won per share (versus the current price of 69,000 won) over a one year view.

In this report, we discuss a shorting opportunity of a Korean telecom equipment maker called Kmw Co Ltd (032500 KS) whose share price has surged 213% YTD. KMW currently has a market cap of 2.7 trillion won ($2.3 billion). The company has never generated positive operating profit from 2015 to 2018. However, the consensus expects the company to generate sales of 809 billion won (up 173% YoY) and an operating profit of 161 billion won in 2019 (from operating loss of 31 billion won in 2018). The key driver of the company's sales and profits has been the explosive demand for its 5G equipment products.The average product prices of the company's RF System products soared by 200% from 2.4 million won in 2018 to 7.2 million won in 1H19 and we do not believe this kind of pricing leverage is sustainable in a highly cut-throat global telecom equipment industry. In addition, the global telcos (including the ones in Korea) are notorious for cutting telecom equipment prices as much as possible and they make a lot of effort at diversifying their supplier base. So we think that the 25%+ operating margin assumption for KMW in 2020 and 2021 are probably too high and the sell-side analysts may be too optimistic in their earnings forecasts. In our view, about a 15% average operating margin assumption for the company is more reasonable in 2020 and 2021 for KMW, which means that the consensus operating profit estimates in 2020 and 2021 are probably overstated by about 40% in our view. All in all, we believe that shares of KMW are overvalued by about 40% and we believe the company's intrinsic value is closer to 1.6 trillion won (market cap) or 41,000 won per share (versus the current price of 69,000 won) over a one year view. 

South Korea

Solid Inc. manufactures networking equipment.  The Company's products include in building hybrid fiber coax systems, tunnel optic repeaters, high power hybrid fiber coax systems, and gap fillers for digital multimedia broadcasting (DMB). Solid Technologies provides its products to KT Freetel and SK Telecom.

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Solid Inc (050890 KS)

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 9 Changes as Fadu Ignored Again

There are 9 changes as Fadu and Joongang AM have been kept out of the index again. Passive impact varies from 0.2-8.6x ADV. Performance has been...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 Constituent Changes Announced: A Few Surprises

Korea Exchange announced its KOSPI200 rebalance changes on 27 May. It added 8 companies and deleted 8 companies. KRX also added 9 companies and...

Douglas Kim

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes a Side; Strong Outperformance

There could be 10 changes for the index in June. The inclusion of two names depends on the index committee. The forecast adds have run up strongly...

Brian Freitas

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Changes Expected Already; More to Come

Less than a third of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential inclusions and exclusions from the KOSDAQ150 index. The resumption of...

Brian Freitas

KMW - A Shorting Opportunity

In this report, we discuss a shorting opportunity of a Korean telecom equipment maker called Kmw Co Ltd (032500 KS) whose share price has surged...

Douglas Kim

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