HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China issued the “Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035)”, where some statements are different from those in the  "14th Five-year Plan" and the 20th National Congress report.</li>
<li>We analyzed our interpretation and speculated the “wind direction” behind the difference in statements, so as to identify some possible changes in China healthcare industry in 2023.</li>
<li>
<em> The Outline</em> is not only in line with the adjustment of COVID policies,but also highly relevant to the major contradictions/changes in internal and external situations. Investors need to follow the trend.  </li>
</ul>


China issued the “Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035)”, where some statements are different from those in the  "14th Five-year Plan" and the 20th National Congress report.
We analyzed our interpretation and speculated the “wind direction” behind the difference in statements, so as to identify some possible changes in China healthcare industry in 2023.

 The Outline is not only in line with the adjustment of COVID policies,but also highly relevant to the major contradictions/changes in internal and external situations. Investors need to follow the trend.  


Identify New Directions of China Healthcare in 2023 – Major Changes In Highest Level Policy Document

<ul>
<li>The most obvious opportunity in China healthcare at the current stage is import substitution. If import substitution is fully realized, it can bring a clear performance increase to the companies.</li>
<li>In 2023, we are optimistic that China healthcare would gain more household expenditure in the “Long COVID” effect, thus generating excess returns under the logic of expanding domestic demand.</li>
<li>We would recommend investors consider making layout in those non-COVID related companies in 2023.  We analyzed the outlook, investment logic and investment opportunities in medical device, biotech and CXO sectors.</li>
</ul>


The most obvious opportunity in China healthcare at the current stage is import substitution. If import substitution is fully realized, it can bring a clear performance increase to the companies.
In 2023, we are optimistic that China healthcare would gain more household expenditure in the “Long COVID” effect, thus generating excess returns under the logic of expanding domestic demand.
We would recommend investors consider making layout in those non-COVID related companies in 2023.  We analyzed the outlook, investment logic and investment opportunities in medical device, biotech and CXO sectors.


Presentation for Webinar: China Healthcare - Outlook and Opportunities in 2023

<ul>
<li>China's relaxation of COVID-19 control measures is much faster than expected. Due to rising infection rate and mortality rate, China would bear some pressure in the short term. </li>
<li>We analyzed the direct impacts due to COVID policy shift and related investment opportunities. The hardest time of three-year COVID-19 has passed.The playbook of the pandemic is about to end.</li>
<li>With the new leadership taking office, China will be more committed to economic growth after the Two Sessions. Starting from 2023H2, China could formulate independent financial/monetary policies. China will change. </li>
</ul>


China's relaxation of COVID-19 control measures is much faster than expected. Due to rising infection rate and mortality rate, China would bear some pressure in the short term. 
We analyzed the direct impacts due to COVID policy shift and related investment opportunities. The hardest time of three-year COVID-19 has passed.The playbook of the pandemic is about to end.
With the new leadership taking office, China will be more committed to economic growth after the Two Sessions. Starting from 2023H2, China could formulate independent financial/monetary policies. China will change. 


China Makes U-Turn on COVID Policy - Here Are the Direct Impacts and Investment Opportunities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micro-tech-nanjing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30320:1" rel="noopener">Micro-Tech Nanjing Co Ltd (688029 CH)</a> would face lower-than-expected performance growth in 2022, but the logic of import substitution and increasing demand for endoscopy consumables would help drive future growth.</li>
<li>Centralized procurement is a problem, but Micro-Tech’s leading position of endoscopy consumables in China is stable, which wouldn’t be easily affected by centralized procurement when compared with other domestic companies.</li>
<li>The valuation of Micro-Tech should be lower than Mindray and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sonoscape-medical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29742:1" rel="noopener">Sonoscape</a>, since these two companies have much better performance (both growth and profitability), product competitiveness, business layout and outlook.</li>
</ul>



Micro-Tech Nanjing Co Ltd (688029 CH) would face lower-than-expected performance growth in 2022, but the logic of import substitution and increasing demand for endoscopy consumables would help drive future growth.
Centralized procurement is a problem, but Micro-Tech’s leading position of endoscopy consumables in China is stable, which wouldn’t be easily affected by centralized procurement when compared with other domestic companies.
The valuation of Micro-Tech should be lower than Mindray and Sonoscape, since these two companies have much better performance (both growth and profitability), product competitiveness, business layout and outlook.


Micro-Tech Nanjing (688029.CH)-Worth a Spot on the Watch List Due to Possibility of Dilemma Reversal

<ul>
<li>The 20th National Congress highlighted the importance of autonomy and controllability of key supply chains. So, the most obvious opportunity in China healthcare is import substitution.</li>
<li>For the investment logic of import substitution, we’re more inclined to focus on medical devices sector rather than pharmaceutical sector due to more obvious policy catalysts and higher certainty.</li>
<li>We analyzed our top picks (both medical device sector and others in 2023). After a challenging year, we think that China healthcare in 2023 would be very promising.</li>
</ul>


The 20th National Congress highlighted the importance of autonomy and controllability of key supply chains. So, the most obvious opportunity in China healthcare is import substitution.
For the investment logic of import substitution, we’re more inclined to focus on medical devices sector rather than pharmaceutical sector due to more obvious policy catalysts and higher certainty.
We analyzed our top picks (both medical device sector and others in 2023). After a challenging year, we think that China healthcare in 2023 would be very promising.


2023 High Conviction - China Healthcare: Recognize the Direction and Follow the Trend

China

Sonoscape Medical Corp. manufactures medical equipment. The Company develops, produces, and sells ultrasound diagnostic systems, transducers, and other medical equipment products. Sonoscape Medical serves customers worldwide.

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Sonoscape Medical Corp (300633 CH)

Identify New Directions of China Healthcare in 2023 – Major Changes In Highest Level Policy Document

China issued the Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035), where some statements have changed, leading to the change...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Presentation for Webinar: China Healthcare - Outlook and Opportunities in 2023

We're bullish on China healthcare in 2023 due to increasing household expenditure in “Long COVID” effect and the rebound of non-COVID medical...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Makes U-Turn on COVID Policy - Here Are the Direct Impacts and Investment Opportunities

China's U-turn on COVID policy will lead to rising infection/mortality rate.We analyzed the direct impact/investment opportunity. Under new...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Micro-Tech Nanjing (688029.CH)-Worth a Spot on the Watch List Due to Possibility of Dilemma Reversal

Micro-Tech will face lower-than-expected performance growth in 2022,but its leading position of endoscopy consumables in China is still...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

2023 High Conviction - China Healthcare: Recognize the Direction and Follow the Trend

The most obvious opportunity in China healthcare is import substitution,based on which companies in medical device sector are expected to have good...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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