President

Thomas Coughlin

Coughlin Associates

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>IoT, AI and other big data applications are driving the generation of data and the data that needs to be stored for the long term.  Magnetic tape, now 68 years old, continues to be used for long term data archiving.  The recent demo of technology to create 580TB tape cartridges will enable continuing use of magnetic tape to store the worlds most important data.</p>

IoT, AI and other big data applications are driving the generation of data and the data that needs to be stored for the long term.  Magnetic tape, now 68 years old, continues to be used for long term data archiving.  The recent demo of technology to create 580TB tape cartridges will enable continuing use of magnetic tape to store the worlds most important data.

Fujifilm and IBM Magnetic Tape Milestone:  Supporting Archive Industry

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/082/original/2020-11-30_05-30-46.png?1606681863" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175082"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics </div><p><strong>FOUR QUADRANTS</strong> - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-</p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN BUYS </strong>- Companies with low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN SELLS</strong> - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>TURNAROUNDS</strong> - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>EX-GROWTH</strong> - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores</li>
</ul><p>In the two Contrarian quadrants and especially for Contrarian Sells, companies can remain outliers for extended periods; however profitable Contrarian Sells in the last year have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-nippon-sanso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15756:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Sanso (4091 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sekisui-house-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4508:1" rel="noopener">Sekisui House (1928 JP)</a>. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/174/185/original/2020-11-26_08-13-23.png?1606346017" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="174185"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/174/187/original/2020-11-26_08-18-21.png?1606346313" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="174187"></figure></section><p><strong><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7b61jl02dh0pzno/2020-11-25_12-43-55.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CONTRARIAN SELLS</a></strong>- In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Sells for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look at the Turnarounds and Ex-Growth quadrants before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. The first Insight in the Series can be found here - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-four-quadrants-contrarian-buys" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45688" rel="noopener">Contrarian Buys</a>.</p>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-

CONTRARIAN BUYS - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

CONTRARIAN SELLS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

TURNAROUNDS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores

EX-GROWTH - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores
In the two Contrarian quadrants and especially for Contrarian Sells, companies can remain outliers for extended periods; however profitable Contrarian Sells in the last year have been Nippon Sanso (4091 JP) and Sekisui House (1928 JP). CONTRARIAN SELLS- In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Sells for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look at the Turnarounds and Ex-Growth quadrants before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. The first Insight in the Series can be found here - Contrarian Buys.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Sells

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<div>
<div>During COVID-19, tech stocks have led the markets supported by demand expansion, strong balance sheets filled with cash, and innovative products. At the end of the cycle, there should be a rotation towards cyclical and value stocks but this time around is policy-induced recovery and during the COVID-19 crisis, tech stocks have led the recovery ahead of the cyclical. The question is whether this will carry on and large tech names to continue leading market recovery while cyclical drag their feet?</div>
</div>
<div></div>
<div>The regulator in China has given dominant tech names a slap in the wrist with the anti-trust law that proposes to democratize the payment systems that will inevitably break up the monopolies and these companies will lose their customers' stickiness. </div>
<div>
<div></div>
</div>
<div>In light of the <strong>antitrust</strong> law and the real economic recovery in China, investors should start to underweight technology stocks in China such as Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and start to overweight travel and tourism stocks such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1080:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> and also Industrials such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoomlion-heavy-industry-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7817:1" rel="noopener">Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment Intl (631 HK)</a>expecting that construction works can resume at full capacity anytime soon. </div>
<div></div>
<div>Globally, dominant tech stocks (FANGS) such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netflix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20451:1" rel="noopener">Netflix Inc (NFLX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> should start to be underweight due to the potential punitive measures from the House if Democrats win. Investors should start to overweight industrial stocks such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caterpillar-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:697:1" rel="noopener">Caterpillar Inc (CAT US)</a> and staples such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/procter-gamble-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:978:1" rel="noopener">Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-sa-020546b9-e58a-465b-a5ac-98e84143bf4c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27908:1" rel="noopener">Nestle SA (NESN SW)</a> . </div>
<div></div>
<div>Investors should also consider start building positions in blue-chip with moat names such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visa-inc-class-a-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8707:1" rel="noopener">Visa Inc Class A Shares (V US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelers-cos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10300:1" rel="noopener">Travelers Cos (TRV US)</a> as they provide stability and proxy to America's economic recovery. </div>


During COVID-19, tech stocks have led the markets supported by demand expansion, strong balance sheets filled with cash, and innovative products. At the end of the cycle, there should be a rotation towards cyclical and value stocks but this time around is policy-induced recovery and during the COVID-19 crisis, tech stocks have led the recovery ahead of the cyclical. The question is whether this will carry on and large tech names to continue leading market recovery while cyclical drag their feet?


The regulator in China has given dominant tech names a slap in the wrist with the anti-trust law that proposes to democratize the payment systems that will inevitably break up the monopolies and these companies will lose their customers' stickiness. 



In light of the antitrust law and the real economic recovery in China, investors should start to underweight technology stocks in China such as Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and start to overweight travel and tourism stocks such as Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH) , Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) , Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) and also Industrials such as Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK) and Sany Heavy Equipment Intl (631 HK)expecting that construction works can resume at full capacity anytime soon. 

Globally, dominant tech stocks (FANGS) such as Facebook Inc A (FB US) , Apple Inc (AAPL US) , Netflix Inc (NFLX US) and Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) should start to be underweight due to the potential punitive measures from the House if Democrats win. Investors should start to overweight industrial stocks such as Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) and staples such as Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG US) and Nestle SA (NESN SW) . 

Investors should also consider start building positions in blue-chip with moat names such as Visa Inc Class A Shares (V US) and Travelers Cos (TRV US) as they provide stability and proxy to America's economic recovery. 

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden (4062 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao (4452 JP). </a> </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/135/original/2020-10-29_06-17-58.png?1603919897" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168135"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/136/original/2020-10-29_06-18-56.png?1603919953" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168136"></figure></section>
</div><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>88 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 52% Positive / 2% Neutral / 45% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.5 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -5.9% Quarter YoY / -4.2% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change</strong>: -2.0ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 20%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>66 Annual • 39 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score</strong>: 44% Positive / 11% Neutral / 45% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 44% Positive / 18% Neutral / 38% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -0.6 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Ibiden (4062 JP) and Kao (4452 JP).  

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS88 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 52% Positive / 2% Neutral / 45% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.5 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -5.9% Quarter YoY / -4.2% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.0ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 20%
66 Annual • 39 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 44% Positive / 11% Neutral / 45% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 44% Positive / 18% Neutral / 38% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.6 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​28 - Ibiden, Sony, Komatsu, Kao, Toyo Suisan

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<p>The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics for August have just been released, and revenues increased for the second sequential month, a positive sign in a puzzling year.  All in all, it appears that the semiconductor sector is faring well despite the pandemic.  It's far too soon to call this growth a trend, though, but it currently appears that the industry is poised to grow at its historical 3.9% annual average rate.</p>

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics for August have just been released, and revenues increased for the second sequential month, a positive sign in a puzzling year.  All in all, it appears that the semiconductor sector is faring well despite the pandemic.  It's far too soon to call this growth a trend, though, but it currently appears that the industry is poised to grow at its historical 3.9% annual average rate.

Japan

Sony Corporation manufactures audio, home video game consoles, communications, key device and information technology products for the consumer and professional markets.  The Company's other businesses include music, pictures, computer entertainment, and online businesses.

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Sony Corp (6758 JP)

Fujifilm and IBM Magnetic Tape Milestone: Supporting Archive Industry

The recent demo of technology to create 580TB tape cartridges will enable continuing use of magnetic tape to store the worlds most important data.

Thomas Coughlin

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Sells

CONTRARIAN SELLS - In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Sells for potential opportunities.

Campbell Gunn

Tech Sell-Off: Stop or Carry On?

In light of the anti-trust law in China, real economic recovery, higher corporate tax rates in the US, and breakup of dominant tech firms,...

Henry Soediarko

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/28 - Ibiden, Sony, Komatsu, Kao, Toyo Suisan

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Ibiden (4062 JP) and Kao (4452 JP). ________________

Campbell Gunn

August Semiconductor Sales Increase

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics for August have just been released, and revenue

Jim Handy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Fujifilm and IBM Magnetic Tape Milestone: Supporting Archive Industry

The recent demo of technology to create 580TB tape cartridges will enable continuing use of magnetic tape to store the worlds most important data.

Thomas Coughlin

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Sells

CONTRARIAN SELLS - In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Sells for potential opportunities.

Campbell Gunn

Tech Sell-Off: Stop or Carry On?

In light of the anti-trust law in China, real economic recovery, higher corporate tax rates in the US, and breakup of dominant tech firms,...

Henry Soediarko

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​28 - Ibiden, Sony, Komatsu, Kao, Toyo Suisan

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Ibiden (4062 JP) and Kao (4452 JP). ________________

Campbell Gunn

August Semiconductor Sales Increase

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics for August have just been released, and revenue

Jim Handy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/28 - Ibiden, Sony, Komatsu, Kao, Toyo Suisan