Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following our insight, <a target="_blank">"Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton</a>," copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.</li>
<li>We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market's supply.  A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.</li>
<li>Beneficiaries of the copper rally are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, which are our top picks. </li>
</ul>


Following our insight, "Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton," copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.
We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market's supply.  A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.
Beneficiaries of the copper rally are Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), which are our top picks. 


Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.mining.com/all-missing-workers-found-dead-at-freeports-grasberg-mine/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspension of the Grasberg mine</a> following the mudrush incident is likely to weigh on copper supply and impact prices positively for the next two years. </li>
<li>The mine is expected to come back on stream, "<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/grasberg-disaster-highlights-fragility-copper-supply-chain-2025-09-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tentatively" only in 2027</a>, with over 700,000 tons of supply out of the market (~3% of supply) until then.</li>
<li>Following the challenges of the<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sVtkOQyOiI" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> El Teniente mine of Codelco</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ivanhoe-s-massive-guide-down-and-copper-supply-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe mines</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ivanhoe-s-massive-guide-down-and-copper-supply-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">,</a> we estimate that the copper deficit could widen beyond 400k tons in 2025. </li>
</ul>


The suspension of the Grasberg mine following the mudrush incident is likely to weigh on copper supply and impact prices positively for the next two years. 
The mine is expected to come back on stream, "tentatively" only in 2027, with over 700,000 tons of supply out of the market (~3% of supply) until then.
Following the challenges of the El Teniente mine of Codelco and the Ivanhoe mines, we estimate that the copper deficit could widen beyond 400k tons in 2025. 


Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>A significant production impact from the suspension of its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, following a deadly mud rush incident, could lead to a spike in copper prices.</li>
<li>The force majeure in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a> mine will take out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-results-fy24-mine-by-mine-plan-production-commentary-on-copper-from-global-listed-companies" target="_blank" rel="noopener">700,000 tons</a> of annualized production in the foreseeable future (&gt;2.5% of global copper production).</li>
<li>Copper players like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> would be beneficiaries, while <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a> could be significantly affected.</li>
</ul>


A significant production impact from the suspension of its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, following a deadly mud rush incident, could lead to a spike in copper prices.
The force majeure in the Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) mine will take out 700,000 tons of annualized production in the foreseeable future (&gt;2.5% of global copper production).
Copper players like Southern Copper (SCCO US), Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), and Teck Resources (TECK US) would be beneficiaries, while Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) could be significantly affected.


Copper Prices to Rally To 11k USD/Ton Due To Grasberg Force Majeure

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Expansive Exploration Ventures in Northern Chile Southern Copper is currently engrossed in a meticulous ground study of its Especularita copper-gold project, located within the metallic-rich coastal belt of northern Chile.</li><li>Spread across 19,076 hectares, the Especularita project encompasses both exploration and mining ventures, either granted or in the process of being so.</li><li>The firm further boasts rights to potentially secure full ownership of the project.</li></ul>

Expansive Exploration Ventures in Northern Chile Southern Copper is currently engrossed in a meticulous ground study of its Especularita copper-gold project, located within the metallic-rich coastal belt of northern Chile.Spread across 19,076 hectares, the Especularita project encompasses both exploration and mining ventures, either granted or in the process of being so.The firm further boasts rights to potentially secure full ownership of the project.

Southern Copper: 6 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!

<ul>
<li>COMEX spreads blew out to over 2,500 USD/ton (a ~25% premium) last night as President Trump announced a likelihood of a 50% import tariff on the metal. </li>
<li>We believe this move will deplete inventories further at the LME (to be shipped to the COMEX) and lead to a rally in copper prices on the LME as well.</li>
<li>Follow our prior insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-breaches-10k-usd-easy-journey-to-11k-usd-ton-on-lower-inventories-in-the-short-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:191702" rel="noopener">Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term</a> </li>
</ul>


COMEX spreads blew out to over 2,500 USD/ton (a ~25% premium) last night as President Trump announced a likelihood of a 50% import tariff on the metal. 
We believe this move will deplete inventories further at the LME (to be shipped to the COMEX) and lead to a rally in copper prices on the LME as well.
Follow our prior insight, Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term 


Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton

United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

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Southern Copper (SCCO US)

Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

Copper is poised for a strong seasonal rally as supply disruptions tighten markets and demand strengthens; we detail recent outages and updated...

Sameer Taneja

Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton

The Grasberg fiasco is becoming a critical part of the copper story, with a likely hit to 3% of global supply until 2027, "tentatively". We believe...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Prices to Rally To 11k USD/Ton Due To Grasberg Force Majeure

We expect the Force Majeure at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia of FCX to result in copper prices breaching the $ 5/lb mark and rallying further. We...

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper: 6 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!

Expansive Exploration Ventures in Northern Chile Southern Copper is currently engrossed in a meticulous ground study of its Especularita...

Baptista Research

Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton

With the Trump administration now leaning towards a 50% import tariff in the short term, copper prices on the LME have gained upward momentum. How...

Sameer Taneja

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