Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM, Dantes Outlook

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM

Dantes Outlook

We invest over a full market cycle, using multi-asset portfolios tailored to each global client, from individuals to family offices.

Built to Endure

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>U.S. small caps, metals and mining stocks, and gold were key detractors within the portfolio suite, offsetting positive allocation effects in our underweight fixed income exposure. </li>
<li>Aggressive portfolios maintained their outperformance YTD driven by strong selections within the equity asset class.</li>
<li>Positioning changes include commodity diversification beyond gold, adding Japanese equities, and maintaining an underweight to bonds.</li>
</ul>


U.S. small caps, metals and mining stocks, and gold were key detractors within the portfolio suite, offsetting positive allocation effects in our underweight fixed income exposure. 
Aggressive portfolios maintained their outperformance YTD driven by strong selections within the equity asset class.
Positioning changes include commodity diversification beyond gold, adding Japanese equities, and maintaining an underweight to bonds.


Portfolio Update: Broader Commodity Positioning, Narrow Equity Leadership

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In our previous insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-to-end-the-year-with-seasonal-strength-onward-to-12-000-usd-ton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206735" rel="noopener">Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton</a>, we elaborated on the supply issues with copper production. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> has now guided production down to the lower end of the 660-700k range (we assume a midpoint of 680k), or 3%.</li>
<li>FY26 guidance was also soft (-4-5% from our expectations). We are seeing a spate of guidedowns and will need to monitor them to better understand the deficit situation. </li>
</ul>


In our previous insight Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton, we elaborated on the supply issues with copper production. 

Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) has now guided production down to the lower end of the 660-700k range (we assume a midpoint of 680k), or 3%.
FY26 guidance was also soft (-4-5% from our expectations). We are seeing a spate of guidedowns and will need to monitor them to better understand the deficit situation. 


Copper Production Disappointments Mount With Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Guidedown, Bullish To 12k USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>Record 2Q26: net sales $4,289mm (+41%), EBITDA $2,856mm (+60%), net income $1,670mm (+72%), on LME copper of $6.04/lb.</li>
<li>Cash cost $0.05/lb net of by-products, net debt down to $665mm, and 2026 copper guidance nudged to 917kt despite weaker Cuajone grades.</li>
<li>2026e EPS $8.33, P/E 22.4x, EV/EBITDA 14.4x at $186.71; sensitivity spans $4.11 to $12.56 EPS on copper of $3.40 to $8.40.</li>
</ul>


Record 2Q26: net sales $4,289mm (+41%), EBITDA $2,856mm (+60%), net income $1,670mm (+72%), on LME copper of $6.04/lb.
Cash cost $0.05/lb net of by-products, net debt down to $665mm, and 2026 copper guidance nudged to 917kt despite weaker Cuajone grades.
2026e EPS $8.33, P/E 22.4x, EV/EBITDA 14.4x at $186.71; sensitivity spans $4.11 to $12.56 EPS on copper of $3.40 to $8.40.


Southern Copper (SCCO US) 2Q FY26 Results/Concall Update: >13,000 USD/Ton Copper Driving Upgrades

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.mining.com/all-missing-workers-found-dead-at-freeports-grasberg-mine/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspension of the Grasberg mine</a> following the mudrush incident is likely to weigh on copper supply and impact prices positively for the next two years. </li>
<li>The mine is expected to come back on stream, "<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/grasberg-disaster-highlights-fragility-copper-supply-chain-2025-09-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tentatively" only in 2027</a>, with over 700,000 tons of supply out of the market (~3% of supply) until then.</li>
<li>Following the challenges of the<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sVtkOQyOiI" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> El Teniente mine of Codelco</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ivanhoe-s-massive-guide-down-and-copper-supply-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe mines</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ivanhoe-s-massive-guide-down-and-copper-supply-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">,</a> we estimate that the copper deficit could widen beyond 400k tons in 2025. </li>
</ul>


The suspension of the Grasberg mine following the mudrush incident is likely to weigh on copper supply and impact prices positively for the next two years. 
The mine is expected to come back on stream, "tentatively" only in 2027, with over 700,000 tons of supply out of the market (~3% of supply) until then.
Following the challenges of the El Teniente mine of Codelco and the Ivanhoe mines, we estimate that the copper deficit could widen beyond 400k tons in 2025. 


Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

Agricultural Bank of China / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China's bottoming/stabilizing real estate market</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China's bottoming/stabilizing real estate market
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next


Curator's Cut: Arbs Go A-H, Copper Plays & China's Property Pulse

United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Southern Copper (SCCO US)

Portfolio Update: Broader Commodity Positioning, Narrow Equity Leadership

Full breakdown of our portfolio suite, performance, and new positioning. We broadened our commodity positioning, added Japan, and maintained a core...

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Copper Production Disappointments Mount With Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Guidedown, Bullish To 12k USD/Ton

Copper has just passed 11,000 USD/ton. We believe we are still at the nascent stages of our bullish call on copper, and the next stop is 12,000 USD...

Sameer Taneja