Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

After an initial tantrum, the market is now upbeat at the prospect of a Trump presidency, particularly for commodities and commodity producers. Trump says he will boost U.S. economic growth to 3.5% per annum, cut taxes and regulation, lift restrictions on energy investment--particularly for fossil fuels--and end offshoring. There are some left-field ideas too, particularly around trade and protectionism. The most important policy for commodity producers is the promise to invest $1 trillion on infrastructure in the next 10 years.U.S.-based steelmakers are likely to benefit. Trump says he wants the steel for backbone of the infrastructure to be American. We expect U.S. steel makers to benefit from both higher volumes and margins, with unit costs to benefit from increased plant utilisation. Some of the benefit is likely to be passed on to the price of raw materials-- scrap and U.S. domestically produced iron ore and coking coal.We do not expect a meaningful change to global demand for commodities given the small role that the U.S. plays in a China-dominated market. As such, we do not plan any changes to our price forecasts for iron ore, met coal, thermal coal, or uranium. We maintain our fair value estimates for almost all our global mining coverage (BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, Vale, Anglo American, Glencore, Teck Resources, and Cameco).Analyst: Mathew Hodge &amp; David Wang

After an initial tantrum, the market is now upbeat at the prospect of a Trump presidency, particularly for commodities and commodity producers. Trump says he will boost U.S. economic growth to 3.5% per annum, cut taxes and regulation, lift restrictions on energy investment--particularly for fossil fuels--and end offshoring. There are some left-field ideas too, particularly around trade and protectionism. The most important policy for commodity producers is the promise to invest $1 trillion on infrastructure in the next 10 years.U.S.-based steelmakers are likely to benefit. Trump says he wants the steel for backbone of the infrastructure to be American. We expect U.S. steel makers to benefit from both higher volumes and margins, with unit costs to benefit from increased plant utilisation. Some of the benefit is likely to be passed on to the price of raw materials-- scrap and U.S. domestically produced iron ore and coking coal.We do not expect a meaningful change to global demand for commodities given the small role that the U.S. plays in a China-dominated market. As such, we do not plan any changes to our price forecasts for iron ore, met coal, thermal coal, or uranium. We maintain our fair value estimates for almost all our global mining coverage (BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, Vale, Anglo American, Glencore, Teck Resources, and Cameco).Analyst: Mathew Hodge &amp; David Wang

U.S. Steel Makers to Benefit From Trump Stimulus but Market Draws Long Bow With Optimism for Miners

With U.S. steelmaker stocks having rallied sharply after a painful 2015, shares are now pricing in much better times ahead. Given the impact of skyrocketing steel prices, the perception of improved supply discipline in China, and protectionist trade cases, the consensus narrative now argues that the worst is over. We strongly disagree and see more pain ahead for U.S. steelmakers. Barring a significant improvement in demand, we are hard-pressed to buy into the thesis that elevated steel prices are sustainable. We contend that the peak has already been realized and that prices will move materially lower by the end of 2016. Based on our outlook, every U.S. steelmaker we cover is trading above fair value. In particular, we urge investors to avoid highly leveraged blast furnace operators, as their future cash flows are most sensitive to falling steel prices. We see the most considerable downside for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11502" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11502:1">Ak Steel Holding Corp (AKS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/202" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:202:1">United States Steel Corp (X US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21125" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21125:1">ArcelorMittal (MT NA)</a>.Analyst: Andrew Lane

With U.S. steelmaker stocks having rallied sharply after a painful 2015, shares are now pricing in much better times ahead. Given the impact of skyrocketing steel prices, the perception of improved supply discipline in China, and protectionist trade cases, the consensus narrative now argues that the worst is over. We strongly disagree and see more pain ahead for U.S. steelmakers. Barring a significant improvement in demand, we are hard-pressed to buy into the thesis that elevated steel prices are sustainable. We contend that the peak has already been realized and that prices will move materially lower by the end of 2016. Based on our outlook, every U.S. steelmaker we cover is trading above fair value. In particular, we urge investors to avoid highly leveraged blast furnace operators, as their future cash flows are most sensitive to falling steel prices. We see the most considerable downside for Ak Steel Holding Corp (AKS US), United States Steel Corp (X US), and ArcelorMittal (MT NA).Analyst: Andrew Lane

Avoid the Steel Trap: Fundamentals Indicate Trouble Ahead

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11135" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11135">Fmc Corp (FMC US)</a> announced that it will increase lithium production on the back of a long term supplier contract with a major electric vehicle ("EV") manufacturer.FMC is one of four of the world's largest producers of lithium and it has inked a multi year supply agreement with a EV manufacturer. FMC will produce an additional 4,000 tons of lithium hydroxide next year raising the total production capacity to roughly 18,000 tons a year.The value chain begins with the extraction of lithium…

Fmc Corp (FMC US) announced that it will increase lithium production on the back of a long term supplier contract with a major electric vehicle ("EV") manufacturer.FMC is one of four of the world's largest producers of lithium and it has inked a multi year supply agreement with a EV manufacturer. FMC will produce an additional 4,000 tons of lithium hydroxide next year raising the total production capacity to roughly 18,000 tons a year.The value chain begins with the extraction of lithium…

Lithium Hydroxide up 38% YTD; FMC Increases Lithium Production

Hao Wang, CFA

This is a quick update from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/be-aggressive-in-q1-2016-and-be-defensive-through-rest-of-2016" target="_blank">my start-of-the year call</a> for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2. Almost exactly as I wrote, the dollar (DXY) has weakened 7.9% since the high of 99.83 at the start of the year to 91.92 in early May, commodities (SPGSCI Index) has rallied 35.7% during the same period. China, which has been a center of risk since last August, has clearly seen stabilization in economy, capital outflow, and stock markets. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/008/126/original/2.png?1463320298" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="8126"><figcaption class="figcaption">Dollar</figcaption></figure>…

This is a quick update from my start-of-the year call for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2. Almost exactly as I wrote, the dollar (DXY) has weakened 7.9% since the high of 99.83 at the start of the year to 91.92 in early May, commodities (SPGSCI Index) has rallied 35.7% during the same period. China, which has been a center of risk since last August, has clearly seen stabilization in economy, capital outflow, and stock markets. Dollar…

Be Prepared for a Stronger Dollar in 2nd Half

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

Global markets and investor confidence have reached an inflection point.  They have recovered from the extreme bearishness in the early months of the year supported by significant further monetary policy easing, cooperation among oil-producing nations, a sense that Chinese policymakers are working harder to underpin growth and stabilize its capital markets, and ECB efforts to mitigate the dampening effects of its negative rate policy on bank profits.  However, last week, global asset markets retreated after bumping up against down-trends established over the last year. Investors are worried that global growth and potential earnings remain tepid, that structural problems in emerging markets and over-supplied commodity markets remain. They may be concerned by the prospect of a return to monetary policy tightening in the US, the lingering doubts over bank profitability and loan quality, and limited further space to ease monetary and fiscal policy if required.  The outlook for US monetary policy will be important and key events this week will be watched closely.  We see the wages data at end week particularly important in the wake of a benign wage growth outlook in the 16 March FOMC meeting.

Global markets and investor confidence have reached an inflection point.  They have recovered from the extreme bearishness in the early months of the year supported by significant further monetary policy easing, cooperation among oil-producing nations, a sense that Chinese policymakers are working harder to underpin growth and stabilize its capital markets, and ECB efforts to mitigate the dampening effects of its negative rate policy on bank profits.  However, last week, global asset markets retreated after bumping up against down-trends established over the last year. Investors are worried that global growth and potential earnings remain tepid, that structural problems in emerging markets and over-supplied commodity markets remain. They may be concerned by the prospect of a return to monetary policy tightening in the US, the lingering doubts over bank profitability and loan quality, and limited further space to ease monetary and fiscal policy if required.  The outlook for US monetary policy will be important and key events this week will be watched closely.  We see the wages data at end week particularly important in the wake of a benign wage growth outlook in the 16 March FOMC meeting.

AmpGFX - US Wages Data a Potential Flash Point, Global Markets Inflection Point

United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

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Southern Copper (SCCO US)

U.S. Steel Makers to Benefit From Trump Stimulus but Market Draws Long Bow With Optimism for Miners

After an initial tantrum, the market is now upbeat at the prospect of a Trump presidency, particularly for commodities and commodity producers....

Morningstar, Inc.

Avoid the Steel Trap: Fundamentals Indicate Trouble Ahead

With U.S. steelmaker stocks having rallied sharply after a painful 2015, shares are now pricing in much better times ahead. Given the impact of...

Morningstar, Inc.

Lithium Hydroxide up 38% YTD; FMC Increases Lithium Production

Fmc Corp (FMC US) announced that it will increase lithium production on the back of a long term supplier contract with a major electric...

Ishita Jain

Be Prepared for a Stronger Dollar in 2nd Half

This is a quick update from my start-of-the year call for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2....

Hao Wang, CFA

AmpGFX - US Wages Data a Potential Flash Point, Global Markets Inflection Point

Global markets and investor confidence have reached an inflection point. They have recovered from the extreme bearishness in the early months of...

Greg Gibbs

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