Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect copper demand to have ended FY24 at around 27.1 million tons (up 4% year over year). FY25 could be an interesting year in which copper demand outstrips supply. </li>
<li>We expect China to have about 15.3 million tons of demand (flattish year over year) in FY24. The stimulus will be crucial for growth in overall copper FY25 demand.</li>
<li>We continue to expand our coverage of pure copper play names, with our favorites being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


We expect copper demand to have ended FY24 at around 27.1 million tons (up 4% year over year). FY25 could be an interesting year in which copper demand outstrips supply. 
We expect China to have about 15.3 million tons of demand (flattish year over year) in FY24. The stimulus will be crucial for growth in overall copper FY25 demand.
We continue to expand our coverage of pure copper play names, with our favorites being Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 


Copper Tracker 6th Jan 2025: What Lies In Store For The Year

<ul>
<li>In the countdown to the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3289527/investors-search-fresh-china-stimulus-signs-ahead-xi-jinpings-economic-conference" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)</a>, which will be held on December 11th/12th, the copper market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.</li>
<li>The market has looked through the PMI uptick due to the seasonal uplift and order inflows in anticipation of Trump tariffs, although equities seem a little more positive. </li>
<li>We prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> in the copper space for its high ROIC and future growth. Check out our recent initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lundin-mining-lun-cn-cheap-play-on-copper" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:168213" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN): Cheap Play on Copper.</a> </li>
</ul>


In the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th, the copper market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.
The market has looked through the PMI uptick due to the seasonal uplift and order inflows in anticipation of Trump tariffs, although equities seem a little more positive. 
We prefer Southern Copper (SCCO US) in the copper space for its high ROIC and future growth. Check out our recent initiation, Lundin Mining (LUN CN): Cheap Play on Copper. 


Copper Tracker 9th Dec 2024: All Eyes On the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

Agricultural Bank Of China / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China's bottoming/stabilizing real estate market</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China's bottoming/stabilizing real estate market
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next


Curator's Cut: Arbs Go A-H, Copper Plays & China's Property Pulse

<ul>
<li>COMEX spreads blew out to over 2,500 USD/ton (a ~25% premium) last night as President Trump announced a likelihood of a 50% import tariff on the metal. </li>
<li>We believe this move will deplete inventories further at the LME (to be shipped to the COMEX) and lead to a rally in copper prices on the LME as well.</li>
<li>Follow our prior insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-breaches-10k-usd-easy-journey-to-11k-usd-ton-on-lower-inventories-in-the-short-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:191702" rel="noopener">Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term</a> </li>
</ul>


COMEX spreads blew out to over 2,500 USD/ton (a ~25% premium) last night as President Trump announced a likelihood of a 50% import tariff on the metal. 
We believe this move will deplete inventories further at the LME (to be shipped to the COMEX) and lead to a rally in copper prices on the LME as well.
Follow our prior insight, Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term 


Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Low-Cost producer of copper and zinc with two of the biggest  ten mines in the world.</li>
<li>Recent mine acquisition and increased production at existing mines will grow earnings.</li>
<li>The supply and demand imbalance in copper will lead to higher prices.</li>
</ul>


Low-Cost producer of copper and zinc with two of the biggest  ten mines in the world.
Recent mine acquisition and increased production at existing mines will grow earnings.
The supply and demand imbalance in copper will lead to higher prices.


Mmg Limited 1208.HK - It's Got It All - Copper, EV's, and AI!

United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

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Southern Copper (SCCO US)

Copper Tracker 6th Jan 2025: What Lies In Store For The Year

We summarize our estimates for copper demand for FY25. Market participants are increasingly bullish on copper, but China's demand must pick up for...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 9th Dec 2024: All Eyes On the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)

The copper market remains range-bound in the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th. How...

Sameer Taneja

Curator's Cut: Arbs Go A-H, Copper Plays & China's Property Pulse

In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China's bottoming/stabilizing real estate market.

Pranav Rao

Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton

With the Trump administration now leaning towards a 50% import tariff in the short term, copper prices on the LME have gained upward momentum. How...

Sameer Taneja

Mmg Limited 1208.HK - It's Got It All - Copper, EV's, and AI!

Copper at 5-yr highs. Drivers: a) Tariff fear (25% on aluminium/steel) causing copper to be diverted to the US b) The inventory of copper in China...

Rikki Malik

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