Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Headquartered in Singapore, SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia) is an investment bank focusing on emerging growth companies across Asia, providing a full suite of investment banking services, including corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions advisory, equity capital markets, institutional equities sales and trading and equities research.

SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-north-asia-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5127" rel="noopener">Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP)</a> settles with insurers for HK$334m over damage to Festival Walk mall</li><li>New bonus GFA incentive scheme for developments that meet standards on digitalization and productivity</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-property-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1670" rel="noopener">Frasers Property Ltd (FPL SP)</a> scraps plan to acquire Vietnam property developer</li></ul>

Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP) settles with insurers for HK$334m over damage to Festival Walk mallNew bonus GFA incentive scheme for developments that meet standards on digitalization and productivityFrasers Property Ltd (FPL SP) scraps plan to acquire Vietnam property developer

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (25Nov21) - MAGIC Settles FW's Insurance Claims

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lhn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27234" rel="noopener">LHN Ltd (LHN SP)</a> – Strong Start to FY21; Riding on Co-living trend (BUY; TP S$0.42/Unit)</h3><ul><li>1H21 PATMI jumped 3.66x YoY to S$14.8m, boosted by dormitories mgmt. contracts, which added S$22.4m to top line. While the dormitories mgmt. contracts should taper off in 2H22E, LHN’s recent acquisitions spree of S$61.9m investments in 4 co-living assets (additional 166 keys by end-FY22E) should support earnings with 10-20% ROI upon stabilization. We maintain BUY with a higher TP of S$0.42/share.</li><li>Dormitories mgmt. contracts continue to propel FY21E results. 1H21 revenue +24.9% YoY to S$64.5m, primarily due to higher contributions from Facilities Management Business (+225.5% YoY to S$31.6m) and Logistics Services Business (+6.0% YoY to S$13.5m), partially offset by lower revenue from Space Optimisation Business (-33.6% YoY to S$19.4m). 1H21 PATMI +366.3% YoY to S$14.8m on better margins, higher other income and share of results from associates and JVs, as well as lower fair value loss on investment properties. 1H21 Revenue/PATMI form 52%/59% of our full-year FY21E forecasts as we expect higher 1H21 results vs. 2H21E’s due to the frontloading of dormitories mgmt. contracts, which started in 2H20 and added S$22.4m to 1H21 topline. With the resurgence of Covid-19 cases in Singapore, LHN has recently secured renewal of these contracts for another 6-9months into 1H22E, adding S$12.3m and S$3.4m to 2H21E and 1H22E revenues, respectively</li><li>Mixed performance within Space Optimisation Segment. Industrial Properties and Commercial Properties recorded lower revenues (-46.7% YoY to S$12.8m) due to expiry of 6 master leases (avg. NLA -36.4% YoY to 2.2m sqft), negative rent reversion, downtime at 1557 Keppel Road due to AEI works and IFRS 16 impacts. Meanwhile, Residential Properties revenue (+28.9% YoY to S$6.5m) was boosted by contribution from new serviced residence in Cambodia and higher revenue at 1A Lutheran Road. For the remaining of FY21E, we expect non-renewal of 2 expiring Commercial sites (aggregate NLA of c.63k sqft)</li><li>String of acquisitions for Co-living business should propel growth moving forward. The newly acquired 320 Balestier Road (16Dec20) and 40 &amp; 42 Amber Road (9Jun21), as well as proposed acquisitions of 75 Beach Road and 115 Geylang Road (both are expected to be completed by Jul21) are expected to add 166 keys to LHN’s co-living portfolio in FY22E. The 4 projects with S$61.9m total investments should generate 10-20% return to bottom-line upon stabilization from FY23-24E onwards</li><li>Maintain BUY with a higher TP of S$0.42/shr. Taking into account (i) non-renewal of leases; (ii) renewed dormitories mgmt. contract; (iii) better Logistics Services Business; (iv) the new Co-living keys in FY22E; and (v) higher finance costs, our FY21/22E EPS are adjusted by +10%/-13% to S$6.87c/S$4.55c, respectively. EPS should resume growth at 9% CAGR from FY22-25E as new Residential projects ramp up while Industrial and Commercial Properties improve alongside economy recovery. LHN is currently trading at FY21E P/E of 4.9x and 4.1% yield.</li></ul>

SingaporeLHN Ltd (LHN SP) – Strong Start to FY21; Riding on Co-living trend (BUY; TP S$0.42/Unit)1H21 PATMI jumped 3.66x YoY to S$14.8m, boosted by dormitories mgmt. contracts, which added S$22.4m to top line. While the dormitories mgmt. contracts should taper off in 2H22E, LHN’s recent acquisitions spree of S$61.9m investments in 4 co-living assets (additional 166 keys by end-FY22E) should support earnings with 10-20% ROI upon stabilization. We maintain BUY with a higher TP of S$0.42/share.Dormitories mgmt. contracts continue to propel FY21E results. 1H21 revenue +24.9% YoY to S$64.5m, primarily due to higher contributions from Facilities Management Business (+225.5% YoY to S$31.6m) and Logistics Services Business (+6.0% YoY to S$13.5m), partially offset by lower revenue from Space Optimisation Business (-33.6% YoY to S$19.4m). 1H21 PATMI +366.3% YoY to S$14.8m on better margins, higher other income and share of results from associates and JVs, as well as lower fair value loss on investment properties. 1H21 Revenue/PATMI form 52%/59% of our full-year FY21E forecasts as we expect higher 1H21 results vs. 2H21E’s due to the frontloading of dormitories mgmt. contracts, which started in 2H20 and added S$22.4m to 1H21 topline. With the resurgence of Covid-19 cases in Singapore, LHN has recently secured renewal of these contracts for another 6-9months into 1H22E, adding S$12.3m and S$3.4m to 2H21E and 1H22E revenues, respectivelyMixed performance within Space Optimisation Segment. Industrial Properties and Commercial Properties recorded lower revenues (-46.7% YoY to S$12.8m) due to expiry of 6 master leases (avg. NLA -36.4% YoY to 2.2m sqft), negative rent reversion, downtime at 1557 Keppel Road due to AEI works and IFRS 16 impacts. Meanwhile, Residential Properties revenue (+28.9% YoY to S$6.5m) was boosted by contribution from new serviced residence in Cambodia and higher revenue at 1A Lutheran Road. For the remaining of FY21E, we expect non-renewal of 2 expiring Commercial sites (aggregate NLA of c.63k sqft)String of acquisitions for Co-living business should propel growth moving forward. The newly acquired 320 Balestier Road (16Dec20) and 40 &amp; 42 Amber Road (9Jun21), as well as proposed acquisitions of 75 Beach Road and 115 Geylang Road (both are expected to be completed by Jul21) are expected to add 166 keys to LHN’s co-living portfolio in FY22E. The 4 projects with S$61.9m total investments should generate 10-20% return to bottom-line upon stabilization from FY23-24E onwardsMaintain BUY with a higher TP of S$0.42/shr. Taking into account (i) non-renewal of leases; (ii) renewed dormitories mgmt. contract; (iii) better Logistics Services Business; (iv) the new Co-living keys in FY22E; and (v) higher finance costs, our FY21/22E EPS are adjusted by +10%/-13% to S$6.87c/S$4.55c, respectively. EPS should resume growth at 9% CAGR from FY22-25E as new Residential projects ramp up while Industrial and Commercial Properties improve alongside economy recovery. LHN is currently trading at FY21E P/E of 4.9x and 4.1% yield.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), TA Securities Holdings Berhad

TA Securities Holdings Bhd

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ec-world-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22842" rel="noopener">EC World Reit (ECWREIT SP)</a> renews second major lease in Hengde Logistics (BUY; TP S$0.80/unit)</h3><p>ECWREIT has renewed a second major lease of some 74,057sqm in relation to Hengde Logistics with China Tobacco Zhejiang Industrial. The second major lease (Phase 2 renewal) came after a successful renewal of 152,752sqm of space in Oct20 (Phase 1 renewal). During the Phase 2 renewal, China Tobacco committed to a lease term of 2.65 years to coincide with the expiry of the Phase 1 renewal. Both leases with China Tobacco will expire on 31Dec23. Although the renewal rental rate contracted for the Phase 2 renewal is 8.8% lower than the existing rental rate, the effective blended rental rate of Phase 1 renewal and Phase 2 renewal is 2.2% lower than the effective blended rental rate of the expiring China Tobacco leases at Hengde Logistics Phase 1 and Phase 2. Similar to the Phase 1 Renewal, China Tobacco informed that they will no longer require the warehouse management services for the Phase 2 Renewal due to their internal restructuring. ECWREIT expects the Phase 2 Renewal to reduce ECWREIT’s revenue by 0.8%.</p><p>Comments: The Phase 2 renewal rate at -8.8% came as a surprise with a high single-digit negative reversion, compared the positive reversion of +1.1% in its Phase 1 renewal. This also deviates from mgmt.’s earlier guidance of “similar renewal terms as Phase 1”, which we expect should be “flattish”. While pending further information on the rationale behind such renewal, on a “all-in” basis, we expect a ~3% decrease from FY20 Gross Revenue following its two renewals. We currently have a BUY rating and TP of S$0.80/unit, and will review our recommendations upon results release tomorrow.</p><h3><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eagle-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28059" rel="noopener">Eagle Hospitality Trust (EAGLEHT SP)</a> Dallas hotel sale falls through after missed deposit deadline</h3><p>EAGLEHT will not be going ahead with the planned sale of its property in Texas, as the buyer missed the deadline for a deposit. The sale and purchase agreement for Crowne Plaza Dallas Near Galleria-Addison (CPDG) was thus terminated on 4May. EAGLEHT’s wholly-owned subsidiary will hold on to initial deposits of US$1.45m in the aborted US$18.5m deal with buyer Lockwood Development Partners. Numerous EHT entities had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in a Delaware court in 2021. But CPDG is not directly owned by a Chapter 11 entity, so it does not enjoy bankruptcy protection under Section 363 of the United States Bankruptcy Code. Amid the Chapter 11 entities’ limited ability to support CPDG, the decision was made to sell off CPDG, in the face of potential difficulty fetching a higher price in an auction, and the risk that a lender would foreclose on the property after mortgage loan defaults. But the EAGLEHT unit involved in the sale axed the agreement as the buyer did not meet the 3May deadline for an extra deposit of US$1.05m.</p><h3>One Bernam records 80 units sales (23% take-up rate) on its opening weekend</h3><p>MCC Group and Hao Yuan Investment said that over 80 units or 80% of the first phase of 100 units released at their JV project, One Bernam, were sold. This means ~23% out of a total of the 351units in the 99-year leasehold, mixed-use development, has been sold at ~S$2,650psf ASP. More than 90% of the units that were taken up were one- and two-bedroom units sized from 441-872sqft, priced upwards of S$1.017m. Most of the buyers are said to be Singapore citizens and Permanent Residents. In addition to the 351 residential units, One Bernam contains a two-storey retail podium of 15,726sqft, and one floor of serviced apartments with 13 keys. While one- and two-bedroom units make up 91% of the residences in the project, there are 29 three-bedroom apartments of 1,421sqft. There are also two units of three-bedroom penthouses with sizes of 1,744-1,948sqft, while the largest penthouse is 4,306sqft in size and contains five bedrooms. </p><h3>Biggest penthouse at Park Nova sold at S$5,838psf, a record for Orchard Boulevard area</h3><p>Park Nova, Shun Tak Holdings’ luxury condo in Singapore’s Orchard Boulevard-Tomlinson area, has recorded five units sales for well over $100m. The two biggest five-bedroom penthouses in the 54-unit luxury condo at 18 Tomlinson Road fetched S$34.438m and S$26.026m, respectively. The biggest penthouse of 5,899sqft garnered interest from more than one party and almost had to be sold via balloting. However, one party prevailed and emerged the eventual buyer at S$34.438m or S$5,838psf. The transaction price of S$26.026m for the second biggest penthouse of 4,499sqft, worked out to S$5,785psf. The third and smallest penthouse of 3,229sqft is also believed to have been sold for above S$17m.</p>

SingaporeEC World Reit (ECWREIT SP) renews second major lease in Hengde Logistics (BUY; TP S$0.80/unit)ECWREIT has renewed a second major lease of some 74,057sqm in relation to Hengde Logistics with China Tobacco Zhejiang Industrial. The second major lease (Phase 2 renewal) came after a successful renewal of 152,752sqm of space in Oct20 (Phase 1 renewal). During the Phase 2 renewal, China Tobacco committed to a lease term of 2.65 years to coincide with the expiry of the Phase 1 renewal. Both leases with China Tobacco will expire on 31Dec23. Although the renewal rental rate contracted for the Phase 2 renewal is 8.8% lower than the existing rental rate, the effective blended rental rate of Phase 1 renewal and Phase 2 renewal is 2.2% lower than the effective blended rental rate of the expiring China Tobacco leases at Hengde Logistics Phase 1 and Phase 2. Similar to the Phase 1 Renewal, China Tobacco informed that they will no longer require the warehouse management services for the Phase 2 Renewal due to their internal restructuring. ECWREIT expects the Phase 2 Renewal to reduce ECWREIT’s revenue by 0.8%.Comments: The Phase 2 renewal rate at -8.8% came as a surprise with a high single-digit negative reversion, compared the positive reversion of +1.1% in its Phase 1 renewal. This also deviates from mgmt.’s earlier guidance of “similar renewal terms as Phase 1”, which we expect should be “flattish”. While pending further information on the rationale behind such renewal, on a “all-in” basis, we expect a ~3% decrease from FY20 Gross Revenue following its two renewals. We currently have a BUY rating and TP of S$0.80/unit, and will review our recommendations upon results release tomorrow.Eagle Hospitality Trust (EAGLEHT SP) Dallas hotel sale falls through after missed deposit deadlineEAGLEHT will not be going ahead with the planned sale of its property in Texas, as the buyer missed the deadline for a deposit. The sale and purchase agreement for Crowne Plaza Dallas Near Galleria-Addison (CPDG) was thus terminated on 4May. EAGLEHT’s wholly-owned subsidiary will hold on to initial deposits of US$1.45m in the aborted US$18.5m deal with buyer Lockwood Development Partners. Numerous EHT entities had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in a Delaware court in 2021. But CPDG is not directly owned by a Chapter 11 entity, so it does not enjoy bankruptcy protection under Section 363 of the United States Bankruptcy Code. Amid the Chapter 11 entities’ limited ability to support CPDG, the decision was made to sell off CPDG, in the face of potential difficulty fetching a higher price in an auction, and the risk that a lender would foreclose on the property after mortgage loan defaults. But the EAGLEHT unit involved in the sale axed the agreement as the buyer did not meet the 3May deadline for an extra deposit of US$1.05m.One Bernam records 80 units sales (23% take-up rate) on its opening weekendMCC Group and Hao Yuan Investment said that over 80 units or 80% of the first phase of 100 units released at their JV project, One Bernam, were sold. This means ~23% out of a total of the 351units in the 99-year leasehold, mixed-use development, has been sold at ~S$2,650psf ASP. More than 90% of the units that were taken up were one- and two-bedroom units sized from 441-872sqft, priced upwards of S$1.017m. Most of the buyers are said to be Singapore citizens and Permanent Residents. In addition to the 351 residential units, One Bernam contains a two-storey retail podium of 15,726sqft, and one floor of serviced apartments with 13 keys. While one- and two-bedroom units make up 91% of the residences in the project, there are 29 three-bedroom apartments of 1,421sqft. There are also two units of three-bedroom penthouses with sizes of 1,744-1,948sqft, while the largest penthouse is 4,306sqft in size and contains five bedrooms. Biggest penthouse at Park Nova sold at S$5,838psf, a record for Orchard Boulevard areaPark Nova, Shun Tak Holdings’ luxury condo in Singapore’s Orchard Boulevard-Tomlinson area, has recorded five units sales for well over $100m. The two biggest five-bedroom penthouses in the 54-unit luxury condo at 18 Tomlinson Road fetched S$34.438m and S$26.026m, respectively. The biggest penthouse of 5,899sqft garnered interest from more than one party and almost had to be sold via balloting. However, one party prevailed and emerged the eventual buyer at S$34.438m or S$5,838psf. The transaction price of S$26.026m for the second biggest penthouse of 4,499sqft, worked out to S$5,785psf. The third and smallest penthouse of 3,229sqft is also believed to have been sold for above S$17m.

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (10May21) - ECWREIT renews major Hengde logistics lease

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Boris Johnson has secured the strongest Conservative mandate since Margaret Thatcher in 1987, with an 80-seat majority in the House of Commons and a nationwide vote-share of 43.6% (the highest for the Conservatives since 1970). Britain has voted emphatically for Brexit, with the Liberal Democrats (the one party clearly repudiating Brexit) slumping to just 11 of the 650 Commons seats, and losing their leader Jo Swinson's parliamentary seat. PM Johnson's pledge to govern as a "One-Nation Conservative" is credible, given his record as Mayor of London, although his initial focus will be securing Brexit by Christmas and an FTA with the EU in 2020. </p><p>Although the Scottish National Party (SNP) won 48 of the 59 seats in Scotland, the Conservatives finished second there for the second consecutive time, with 6 seats and 25.6% of the vote (versus 45% for SNP). Labour had dominated Scotland until the 2015 election (in which the SNP won 50% of the vote and 56 seats, up from 6 seats in 2010 to 41 for Labour), but slumped to a single seat and 18% of the vote this time. With 45% of Scottish votes in 2019, the SNP claim that it has a mandate for a second referendum on Scottish independence (after the first in 2014) does not stand up to scrutiny. In Northern Ireland, however, the Irish nationalist parties have won more seats and votes than the Unionists for the first time since the Partition of Ireland in 1922.    </p><p>Given PM Johnson's clear mandate and large majority, he is likely to surprise the commentariat by delivering not only Brexit this month, but also an FTA with the EU by the end of 2020. Irish PM Leo Varadkar will be a key ally in securing both outcomes, given that Irish commercial reunification is assured by the end of this month, and political reunification becomes a likely outcome before too long. Scotland, however, will not have a second referendum on independence during the next 5 years; instead, the FTA with the EU is likely to ameliorate Scottish concerns about Brexit. Britain will be free to negotiate additional trade deals with other key partners (the US, ASEAN, India, Japan, Australia and New Zealand) by the end of 2020. The removal of uncertainty will provide a strong boost to investment spending in the UK. We are solidly positive about British economic and market prospects in 2020. </p>

Boris Johnson has secured the strongest Conservative mandate since Margaret Thatcher in 1987, with an 80-seat majority in the House of Commons and a nationwide vote-share of 43.6% (the highest for the Conservatives since 1970). Britain has voted emphatically for Brexit, with the Liberal Democrats (the one party clearly repudiating Brexit) slumping to just 11 of the 650 Commons seats, and losing their leader Jo Swinson's parliamentary seat. PM Johnson's pledge to govern as a "One-Nation Conservative" is credible, given his record as Mayor of London, although his initial focus will be securing Brexit by Christmas and an FTA with the EU in 2020. Although the Scottish National Party (SNP) won 48 of the 59 seats in Scotland, the Conservatives finished second there for the second consecutive time, with 6 seats and 25.6% of the vote (versus 45% for SNP). Labour had dominated Scotland until the 2015 election (in which the SNP won 50% of the vote and 56 seats, up from 6 seats in 2010 to 41 for Labour), but slumped to a single seat and 18% of the vote this time. With 45% of Scottish votes in 2019, the SNP claim that it has a mandate for a second referendum on Scottish independence (after the first in 2014) does not stand up to scrutiny. In Northern Ireland, however, the Irish nationalist parties have won more seats and votes than the Unionists for the first time since the Partition of Ireland in 1922.    Given PM Johnson's clear mandate and large majority, he is likely to surprise the commentariat by delivering not only Brexit this month, but also an FTA with the EU by the end of 2020. Irish PM Leo Varadkar will be a key ally in securing both outcomes, given that Irish commercial reunification is assured by the end of this month, and political reunification becomes a likely outcome before too long. Scotland, however, will not have a second referendum on independence during the next 5 years; instead, the FTA with the EU is likely to ameliorate Scottish concerns about Brexit. Britain will be free to negotiate additional trade deals with other key partners (the US, ASEAN, India, Japan, Australia and New Zealand) by the end of 2020. The removal of uncertainty will provide a strong boost to investment spending in the UK. We are solidly positive about British economic and market prospects in 2020. 

Tory Landslide Prepares the Ground for an Economic Rebound for GB and Ireland

Malaysia

SP Setia Berhad is an investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company operates as building contractors and develops, invests, and leases properties. SP Setia also manufactures precast concrete, and prefabricates, installs, and sells wood products.

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SP Setia Bhd (SPSB MK)

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (25Nov21) - MAGIC Settles FW's Insurance Claims

MAGIC settles FW's insurance claims; New bonus GFA incentive scheme; FPL cancels VN acquisition; SASSR new CFO; SPSB likely exceeds 2021 sales...

SCCM Asia Research

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (19Aug21)

LHN riding on Co-living uptrend; TSH bags Dunearn Rd freehold site; LMRT obtains S$30m credit facility; SPSB backed by 47 projects worth RM125bn

SCCM Asia Research

Sales Momentum Sustained in 2Q

Buy S P Setia Berhad: Sales Momentum Sustained in 2Q. - By: TA Securities Holdings Bhd

TA Securities Holdings Bhd

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (10May21) - ECWREIT renews major Hengde logistics lease

ECWREIT renews major Hengde logistics lease; EAGLEHT Dallas hotel sales fell through; ALI recovering slowly but surely, RLC 1Q21 results weighed by...

SCCM Asia Research

Tory Landslide Prepares the Ground for an Economic Rebound for GB and Ireland

Boris Johnson has secured the strongest Conservative mandate since Margaret Thatcher in 1987, with an 80-seat majority in the House of Commons and...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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