Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>July was a month of market mean reversion; stocks that were up more than 100% in the first half, fell back an average of 25% in July, while stocks that were down more than 50% rallied by an average of 11%.</li><li>In most cases, this still left the longer term themes intact, but for those who live and die by monthly returns it is fair to say it was a tough month.</li><li>The biggest hits came in the crowded tech hardware stocks, where we discovered at the end of the month one particularly large and heavily leveraged fund was forced into a dramatic unwind.</li></ul>

July was a month of market mean reversion; stocks that were up more than 100% in the first half, fell back an average of 25% in July, while stocks that were down more than 50% rallied by an average of 11%.In most cases, this still left the longer term themes intact, but for those who live and die by monthly returns it is fair to say it was a tough month.The biggest hits came in the crowded tech hardware stocks, where we discovered at the end of the month one particularly large and heavily leveraged fund was forced into a dramatic unwind.

Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>SpaceX (SPCX) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), naturally not an apples to apples comparison, but a very ‘valuation’ kind of comparison and food for thought.</li><li>To begin with, when SpaceX IPO-ed, many of you will recall this chart that I posted:</li><li>SpaceX (SPCX) at $2.1 trillion market capitalisation. Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) at $1.05 market cap</li></ul>

SpaceX (SPCX) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), naturally not an apples to apples comparison, but a very ‘valuation’ kind of comparison and food for thought.To begin with, when SpaceX IPO-ed, many of you will recall this chart that I posted:SpaceX (SPCX) at $2.1 trillion market capitalisation. Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) at $1.05 market cap

SpaceX & Berkshire, Fair Isaac, Blackrock, Margin Loans + S&P 500 ATHs & Valuation

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)</a> released its maiden earnings announcement, and the market is unimpressed.  Although there were some estimate beats, the focus remains on the enormous capex and cash-draining AI business.
</li>
<li>The company is due to release large tranches of shares to the market over the next few months, beginning on August 6th, posing a major risk to the share price.</li>
<li>SpaceX debt, although rated Investment Grade, trades like junk in the market, resulting in substantial losses for its investors since the IPO in June.</li>
</ul>



SpaceX (SPCX US) released its maiden earnings announcement, and the market is unimpressed.  Although there were some estimate beats, the focus remains on the enormous capex and cash-draining AI business.

The company is due to release large tranches of shares to the market over the next few months, beginning on August 6th, posing a major risk to the share price.
SpaceX debt, although rated Investment Grade, trades like junk in the market, resulting in substantial losses for its investors since the IPO in June.


<ul>
<li>Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year.  The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially since the company announced its IPO filing.</li>
<li>The private market valuation, based on funding rounds, tripled between February and May this year, adding roughly $600 billion to its market value. The company participates in AI circular financing.</li>
<li>Valuation compression, competition from Chinese open-source models, regulatory challenges, slowing token usage, and market share loss are pre-IPO challenges for the company.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year.  The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially since the company announced its IPO filing.
The private market valuation, based on funding rounds, tripled between February and May this year, adding roughly $600 billion to its market value. The company participates in AI circular financing.
Valuation compression, competition from Chinese open-source models, regulatory challenges, slowing token usage, and market share loss are pre-IPO challenges for the company.


ANTHROPIC IPO: Will Investors Accept a Down Round?

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Enterprises are slashing AI bills by up to 17x through "model routing," i.e. using cheap open models for routine execution while reserving expensive frontier models strictly for high-stakes workflows.</li>
<li>Plunging token prices are clashing with surging infrastructure costs; OpenAI is bleeding cash subsidising free users, while Anthropic’s projected profitability relies heavily on temporary and discounted compute deals.</li>
<li>The survival of frontier labs depends on ditching opaque token metering. Enterprises demand fixed-cost, embedded workflows over open-ended compute bills that spike unpredictably based on hidden context lengths.</li>
</ul>


Enterprises are slashing AI bills by up to 17x through "model routing," i.e. using cheap open models for routine execution while reserving expensive frontier models strictly for high-stakes workflows.
Plunging token prices are clashing with surging infrastructure costs; OpenAI is bleeding cash subsidising free users, while Anthropic’s projected profitability relies heavily on temporary and discounted compute deals.
The survival of frontier labs depends on ditching opaque token metering. Enterprises demand fixed-cost, embedded workflows over open-ended compute bills that spike unpredictably based on hidden context lengths.


The Great AI Arbitrage: Plunging Token Prices Meet Surging Capex

United States

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., doing business as SpaceX, operates as an aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company. The Company designs and manufactures rockets, human spaceflight, and global satellite internet services. SpaceX serves customers worldwide.

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SpaceX (SPCX US)

Thanks for the Memory..

July was a month of market mean reversion; stocks that were up more than 100% in the first half, fell back an average of 25% in July, while stocks...

Mark Tinker

SpaceX & Berkshire, Fair Isaac, Blackrock, Margin Loans + S&P 500 ATHs & Valuation

SpaceX (SPCX) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), naturally not an apples to apples comparison, but a very ‘valuation’ kind of comparison and food for...

Maverick Equity Research

SpaceX Hits the Moon.... Literally !!

SpaceX released its maiden earnings announcement, and the market is unimpressed. Although there were some estimate beats, the focus remains on the...

David Mudd

ANTHROPIC IPO: Will Investors Accept a Down Round?

Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year. The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially...

David Mudd

The Great AI Arbitrage: Plunging Token Prices Meet Surging Capex

Token prices are plunging, AI capex is surging, and enterprises are exploiting the gap. Discover why model routing is squeezing OpenAI and...

Mint Finance

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