Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The June 2026 index review results for the Nasdaq 100 were announced after market close on 11 June 2026.</li>
<li>There are 5 ADD/DELs for the Nasdaq 100 for Jun26 index rebal event as we predicted (we predicted all of them correctly).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.</li>
</ul>


The June 2026 index review results for the Nasdaq 100 were announced after market close on 11 June 2026.
There are 5 ADD/DELs for the Nasdaq 100 for Jun26 index rebal event as we predicted (we predicted all of them correctly).
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.


Quiddity Nasdaq 100 Jun26 Results: First Rebalance Under New Methodology Sees 10 Changes

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><ul><li>The model tests the economics of the AI buildout. It maps spending from power and capex through clouds to end-market revenue, anchored on FactSet consensus for hyperscaler capex and cloud revenue while our assumptions for AI allocation, utilization, pricing and demand, and modeled intercompany transfers are eliminated.</li><li>Over time, we expect to use this model as a framework for evaluating new data points on capex, AI services revenue, and token pricing/consumption.</li><li>The buildout stays cash flow negative through 2030. AI capex rises from $824B in 2026 to $1.76T in 2030 ($6.7T cumulative) versus revenue of $306B and $1.56T. Cloud FCF is negative $530B and $588B, including assumed internal use benefits; infrastructure vendors generate $258B and $628B.</li></ul></div>

The model tests the economics of the AI buildout. It maps spending from power and capex through clouds to end-market revenue, anchored on FactSet consensus for hyperscaler capex and cloud revenue while our assumptions for AI allocation, utilization, pricing and demand, and modeled intercompany transfers are eliminated.Over time, we expect to use this model as a framework for evaluating new data points on capex, AI services revenue, and token pricing/consumption.The buildout stays cash flow negative through 2030. AI capex rises from $824B in 2026 to $1.76T in 2030 ($6.7T cumulative) versus revenue of $306B and $1.56T. Cloud FCF is negative $530B and $588B, including assumed internal use benefits; infrastructure vendors generate $258B and $628B.

AI Flow Industry Model : Tracking the Capex Flood and Revenue Streams

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)</a> share price is being driven by a thin float that will grow rapidly before year-end as lockup expirations greatly increase supply.
</li>
<li>The S&amp;P rejected a fast-track for the shares, meaning the largest passive and active index buyers will not provide near-term support.</li>
<li>The company's Q2 earnings release in late July/early August will mark the first significant share lockup expiration, followed by a barrage of further share releases through early December.</li>
</ul>



SpaceX (SPCX US) share price is being driven by a thin float that will grow rapidly before year-end as lockup expirations greatly increase supply.

The S&amp;P rejected a fast-track for the shares, meaning the largest passive and active index buyers will not provide near-term support.
The company's Q2 earnings release in late July/early August will mark the first significant share lockup expiration, followed by a barrage of further share releases through early December.


Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

<ul>
<li>SpaceX acquired Cursor for $60B to pair the fastest-growing SaaS company in history with xAI's 700K+ GPU compute clusters.</li>
<li>In April 2026, SpaceX and Cursor announced a deal that gave SpaceX the right to acquire Cursor outright for $60B.</li>
<li>SpaceX is now applying the same vertical integration playbook to AI, from chip fabrication to compute through its Colossus compute clusters (700K+ GPUs).</li>
</ul>


SpaceX acquired Cursor for $60B to pair the fastest-growing SaaS company in history with xAI's 700K+ GPU compute clusters.
In April 2026, SpaceX and Cursor announced a deal that gave SpaceX the right to acquire Cursor outright for $60B.
SpaceX is now applying the same vertical integration playbook to AI, from chip fabrication to compute through its Colossus compute clusters (700K+ GPUs).


Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)</a> options debuted on 16 June with exceptional first-day activity, trading around 1.7m contracts and more than US$2bn in premium.</li>
<li>
Put/Call balance: Calls led overall, but the put/call ratio of 0.77 still points to relatively balanced two-way demand rather than purely one-sided upside speculation.</li>
<li>
Volatility pricing: July and August ATM implied volatility traded around 110%, showing that investors paid a substantial premium for listed option exposure.</li>
</ul>



Context:SpaceX (SPCX US) options debuted on 16 June with exceptional first-day activity, trading around 1.7m contracts and more than US$2bn in premium.

Put/Call balance: Calls led overall, but the put/call ratio of 0.77 still points to relatively balanced two-way demand rather than purely one-sided upside speculation.

Volatility pricing: July and August ATM implied volatility traded around 110%, showing that investors paid a substantial premium for listed option exposure.


SpaceX (SPCX US): Options Lift Off With US$2bn in Premium on Day One

United States

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., doing business as SpaceX, operates as an aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company. The Company designs and manufactures rockets, human spaceflight, and global satellite internet services. SpaceX serves customers worldwide.

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SpaceX (SPCX US)

Quiddity Nasdaq 100 Jun26 Results: First Rebalance Under New Methodology Sees 10 Changes

Nasdaq confirmed the fast-entry addition of SpaceX to the Nasdaq 100 after the close on 26 June 2026, precisely in line with our timeline....

Anjana Amarasuriya

AI Flow Industry Model : Tracking the Capex Flood and Revenue Streams

Over time, we expect to use this model as a framework for evaluating new data points on capex, AI services revenue, and token pricing/consumption.

Water Tower Research

I JUST SHORTED SPACEX: Should I Worry?

SpaceX (SPCX US) share price is being driven by a thin float that will grow rapidly before year-end as lockup expirations greatly increase supply.

David Mudd

Why SpaceX Bought Cursor

TL;DR: With Anthropic's Claude Code and OpenAI's Codex competing directly against Cursor, SpaceX acquired Cursor for $60B to pair the fastest...

Sacra

SpaceX (SPCX US): Options Lift Off With US$2bn in Premium on Day One

SpaceX options debuted with 1.7m contracts traded and more than US$2bn in premium, as front-end calls, broad strike demand, and 110% 30-day IV...

Gaudenz Schneider

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