Stock Picking & Investing, BluSuit

BluSuit

Stock Picking & Investing

Financial markets, high growth & innovative business coverage, macro economics, trading strategy and market insight

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>I have been thinking a lot more about space lately.</li><li>Not in the vague, sci-fi way where every chart goes up and every company with a rocket render becomes investable. That is usually how people lose money in frontier markets.</li><li>The farther away the revenue is, the easier it becomes to confuse imagination for underwriting.</li></ul>

I have been thinking a lot more about space lately.Not in the vague, sci-fi way where every chart goes up and every company with a rocket render becomes investable. That is usually how people lose money in frontier markets.The farther away the revenue is, the easier it becomes to confuse imagination for underwriting.

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bottom-Up SOTP yields US$54.5/share base case — a 60% discount to the US$135 IPO price. Even our bull case of US$101.80 falls short. AVOID.</li>
<li>Connectivity (Starlink) is the primary value driver at US$252bn. Space inflects post-Starship. AI is a data centre business with two contracts carrying 90-day termination clauses.</li>
<li>Near-Term momentum is real — 4% free float, US$5–8bn Nasdaq 100 passive inflows, Musk cult following. Long-term investors are buying sentiment, not valuation.</li>
</ul>


Bottom-Up SOTP yields US$54.5/share base case — a 60% discount to the US$135 IPO price. Even our bull case of US$101.80 falls short. AVOID.
Connectivity (Starlink) is the primary value driver at US$252bn. Space inflects post-Starship. AI is a data centre business with two contracts carrying 90-day termination clauses.
Near-Term momentum is real — 4% free float, US$5–8bn Nasdaq 100 passive inflows, Musk cult following. Long-term investors are buying sentiment, not valuation.


SpaceX (SPCX US): Comprehensive IPO Valuation — Fair Value US$54.5/Share; AVOID the IPO at US$135

Get Ahead with IPO Insights, IPO Prophet

IPO Prophet

Get Ahead with IPO Insights

At IPO Prophet®, our team leverages over three decades of expertise to deliver actionable quantitative analytics for the IPO market in real-time. This platform synthesizes our extensive experience investing in IPOs, providing investors with revolutionary tools to navigate the complexities of issuance day. Our mission is to empower investors with data-driven insights to make more informed decisions.

<ul><li>✅ IPO PROPHET RATING:9.42/10🏦 Deal Quality &amp; Underwriters: 10/10 Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is expected to come public on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, offering approximately 555.55 million shares at $135 per share and targeting roughly $75 billion in proceeds.</li><li>The transaction would immediately rank among the largest IPOs ever completed and would represent the public debut of one of the most influential private companies in the world.</li><li>The company operates across commercial launch services, satellite communications, government and defense programs, advanced aerospace systems, space transportation, and global connectivity infrastructure.</li></ul>

✅ IPO PROPHET RATING:9.42/10🏦 Deal Quality &amp; Underwriters: 10/10 Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is expected to come public on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, offering approximately 555.55 million shares at $135 per share and targeting roughly $75 billion in proceeds.The transaction would immediately rank among the largest IPOs ever completed and would represent the public debut of one of the most influential private companies in the world.The company operates across commercial launch services, satellite communications, government and defense programs, advanced aerospace systems, space transportation, and global connectivity infrastructure.

IPO Rating: Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

<ul>
<li>SpaceX IPO is fully fixed at $135/share, removing price-range signaling and forcing investors to focus directly on scale, demand, and valuation discipline.</li>
<li>Channel checks suggest ~2–3x oversubscription reflecting more measured bidding given the deal’s unprecedented $75B+ size.</li>
<li>Tight ~4–5% free float, expanded retail allocation, and Elon Musk’s 366-day lock-up create a structurally constrained supply setup with heightened post-IPO volatility risk.</li>
</ul>


SpaceX IPO is fully fixed at $135/share, removing price-range signaling and forcing investors to focus directly on scale, demand, and valuation discipline.
Channel checks suggest ~2–3x oversubscription reflecting more measured bidding given the deal’s unprecedented $75B+ size.
Tight ~4–5% free float, expanded retail allocation, and Elon Musk’s 366-day lock-up create a structurally constrained supply setup with heightened post-IPO volatility risk.


SpaceX (SPCX US): Demand Picks Up as Investors Place Disciplined Bets on Musk's Mega IPO

<ul>
<li>Our bottom-up, cradle-to-grave unit model finds orbital AI compute is not economically viable — base-case IRR is −51%, with the sensitivity surface entirely loss-making.</li>
<li>The constraints that break the model: GPU obsolescence at ~3 years while the satellite bus lasts 5–7 years; and cooling consumes ~26% of satellite mass with no in-orbit refresh possible.</li>
<li>Analysis validates our fair value of US$1.16–1.60tn (US$88.3/share low end); orbital AI is worth less than US$10bn on a probability-weighted basis. Maintain AVOID the IPO.</li>
</ul>


Our bottom-up, cradle-to-grave unit model finds orbital AI compute is not economically viable — base-case IRR is −51%, with the sensitivity surface entirely loss-making.
The constraints that break the model: GPU obsolescence at ~3 years while the satellite bus lasts 5–7 years; and cooling consumes ~26% of satellite mass with no in-orbit refresh possible.
Analysis validates our fair value of US$1.16–1.60tn (US$88.3/share low end); orbital AI is worth less than US$10bn on a probability-weighted basis. Maintain AVOID the IPO.


SpaceX (SPCX US): Starship Orbital AI Feasibility Analysis, Destroys Value & Supports Our AVOID Call

United States

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., doing business as SpaceX, operates as an aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company. The Company designs and manufactures rockets, human spaceflight, and global satellite internet services. SpaceX serves customers worldwide.

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SpaceX (SPCX US)

The Next S-Curve May Leave Earth

Not in the vague, sci-fi way where every chart goes up and every company with a rocket render becomes investable. That is usually how people lose...

BluSuit

IPO Rating: Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

✅ IPO PROPHET RATING:9.42/10🏦 Deal Quality & Underwriters: 10/10 Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is expected to come public on Nasdaq...

IPO Prophet

SpaceX (SPCX US): Demand Picks Up as Investors Place Disciplined Bets on Musk's Mega IPO

SpaceX IPO at $135/share removes price-range signaling, investors focus on scale, demand, and valuation discipline. Oversubscription, tight free...

IPO Boutique

SpaceX (SPCX US): Starship Orbital AI Feasibility Analysis, Destroys Value & Supports Our AVOID Call

Orbital AI compute not economically viable due to GPU obsolescence and cooling constraints, analysis values it at less than US$10bn. Avoid the IPO.

Mo Aziz

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The Next S-Curve May Leave Earth

Not in the vague, sci-fi way where every chart goes up and every company with a rocket render becomes investable. That is usually how people lose...

BluSuit

SpaceX (SPCX US): Comprehensive IPO Valuation — Fair Value US$54.5/Share; AVOID the IPO at US$135

​Bottom-Up SOTP analysis shows significant discount to IPO price, even our Bull-case scenario falls short. Near-term momentum driven by Musk cult...

Mo Aziz

IPO Rating: Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

✅ IPO PROPHET RATING:9.42/10🏦 Deal Quality & Underwriters: 10/10 Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is expected to come public on Nasdaq...

IPO Prophet

SpaceX (SPCX US): Demand Picks Up as Investors Place Disciplined Bets on Musk's Mega IPO

​SpaceX IPO at $135/share removes price-range signaling, investors focus on scale, demand, and valuation discipline. Oversubscription, tight free...

IPO Boutique

SpaceX (SPCX US): Starship Orbital AI Feasibility Analysis, Destroys Value & Supports Our AVOID Call

​Orbital AI compute not economically viable due to GPU obsolescence and cooling constraints, analysis values it at less than US$10bn. Avoid the IPO.

Mo Aziz

Bottom-Up SOTP analysis shows significant discount to IPO price, even our Bull-case scenario falls short. Near-term momentum driven by Musk cult...

SpaceX IPO at $135/share removes price-range signaling, investors focus on scale, demand, and valuation discipline. Oversubscription, tight free...

Orbital AI compute not economically viable due to GPU obsolescence and cooling constraints, analysis values it at less than US$10bn. Avoid the IPO.