New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The curse of the incumbent; SPK will likely experience significant cloud headwinds for several years to come</li><li>Free cash flow declining again thanks to growth capex: SPK has delivered admirable growth in free cash flow over the last five years and are back to growing its dividends.</li><li>Mobile still strong — but easy wins from One NZ are likely behind us as One NZ has improved its service levels </li></ul>

The curse of the incumbent; SPK will likely experience significant cloud headwinds for several years to comeFree cash flow declining again thanks to growth capex: SPK has delivered admirable growth in free cash flow over the last five years and are back to growing its dividends.Mobile still strong — but easy wins from One NZ are likely behind us as One NZ has improved its service levels 

Spark NZ: Running Fast, Moving Slow; Down to NEUTRAL

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infratil-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:596:1" rel="noopener">Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ)</a> aims to raise around US$456m (NZ$750m) via an institutional placement.</li>
<li>Proceeds from the placement will be used to acquire the remaining stake on One New Zealand from Brookfields.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) aims to raise around US$456m (NZ$750m) via an institutional placement.
Proceeds from the placement will be used to acquire the remaining stake on One New Zealand from Brookfields.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Infratil Placement - Acquisition of Familiar Asset at Higher Multiples, Stock Is Toppish

<ul><li>Key financial metrics in-line with our forecasts, apart from more near-term capex: SPK is targeting between +2% and +4% revenue growth per annum from FY24–FY26 (FB; +2.9%).</li><li>Price pressure in fixed broadband and private cloud likely dampening the outlook: Over the last six years SPK's voice gross profit has declined from nearly ~25% of the group to ~7%.</li><li>MATTR — the highlight of the day: SPK aims for its high-tech growth opportunities to generate NZ$100m–150m in revenue by FY26.</li></ul>

Key financial metrics in-line with our forecasts, apart from more near-term capex: SPK is targeting between +2% and +4% revenue growth per annum from FY24–FY26 (FB; +2.9%).Price pressure in fixed broadband and private cloud likely dampening the outlook: Over the last six years SPK's voice gross profit has declined from nearly ~25% of the group to ~7%.MATTR — the highlight of the day: SPK aims for its high-tech growth opportunities to generate NZ$100m–150m in revenue by FY26.

Spark NZ: Underwhelming Targets, Yet Reassuring

<ul><li>Spark (SPK) reported a weak first half result, with every area (apart from mobile) disappointing consensus expectations.</li><li>The largest negative deviation versus our expectations came in cloud, security and service management and "other" (likely primarily attributed to Spark Sport content costs).</li><li>The result did come with a relatively thick silver lining; SPK retained its full year EBITDAI guidance, albeit, with expectations that it would achieve the lower end</li></ul>

Spark (SPK) reported a weak first half result, with every area (apart from mobile) disappointing consensus expectations.The largest negative deviation versus our expectations came in cloud, security and service management and "other" (likely primarily attributed to Spark Sport content costs).The result did come with a relatively thick silver lining; SPK retained its full year EBITDAI guidance, albeit, with expectations that it would achieve the lower end

Spark NZ: 1H23 — Ugly Result With a Thick Silver Lining

<ul><li>Spark (SPK) has reported a weak 1H23 result, with EBITDAF of NZ$510m, significantly below our NZ$586m forecast and consensus’ NZ$579m.</li><li>The dividend guidance was unchanged for FY23, in-line with our forecast of NZ27cps, fully imputed</li><li>Growth capex for FY23 is expected to be NZ$350m, ~+NZ$150m above our estimate.</li></ul>

Spark (SPK) has reported a weak 1H23 result, with EBITDAF of NZ$510m, significantly below our NZ$586m forecast and consensus’ NZ$579m.The dividend guidance was unchanged for FY23, in-line with our forecast of NZ27cps, fully imputedGrowth capex for FY23 is expected to be NZ$350m, ~+NZ$150m above our estimate.

Spark (SPK): 1H23 Result − Initial Impressions

New Zealand

Spark New Zealand Limited (formerly Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Limited) is a digital services provider for communications, entertainment and IT services over its networks and the Cloud to New Zealanders and businesses. The Company's strategy is focused on customer experiences, mobility and data.

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Spark New Zealand (SPK AU)

Spark NZ: Running Fast, Moving Slow; Down to NEUTRAL

Over the last five years Spark (SPK) has delivered an EBITDA CAGR of ~+4%. The key drivers have been; (1) cost out and (2) strong mobile pricing...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil Placement - Acquisition of Familiar Asset at Higher Multiples, Stock Is Toppish

Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) aims to raise around US$456m (NZ$750m) via an institutional placement. In this note, we talk about the placement and run the...

Sumeet Singh

Spark NZ: Underwhelming Targets, Yet Reassuring

Spark (SPK) held its triennial strategy day with a focus on how its technology capabilities enable it to grow new and sustainable digital...

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ: 1H23 — Ugly Result With a Thick Silver Lining

Spark (SPK) reported a weak first half result, with every area (apart from mobile) disappointing consensus expectations; the result did come with a...

Forsyth Barr

Spark (SPK): 1H23 Result − Initial Impressions

Spark (SPK) has reported a weak 1H23 result, with EBITDAF of NZ$510m, significantly below our NZ$586m forecast and consensus’ NZ$579m; the dividend...

Forsyth Barr

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