New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Spark NZ (SPK) has fallen ~-10% over the last two months, broadly in line with global telcos, while valuation is becoming more attractive; we stop short of taking a more positive view given its key market share trends have yet to stabilise.</li>
<li>Datamine’s 2Q26 Telcowatch highlighted SPK is continuing to lose mobile connection share, with 2degrees and One NZ outperforming SPK.</li>
<li>We retain NEUTRAL, with SPK’s Chair succession unresolved, market share dynamics remaining challenging, and a flat medium-term earnings profile offsetting a modestly attractive valuation.</li>
</ul>


Spark NZ (SPK) has fallen ~-10% over the last two months, broadly in line with global telcos, while valuation is becoming more attractive; we stop short of taking a more positive view given its key market share trends have yet to stabilise.
Datamine’s 2Q26 Telcowatch highlighted SPK is continuing to lose mobile connection share, with 2degrees and One NZ outperforming SPK.
We retain NEUTRAL, with SPK’s Chair succession unresolved, market share dynamics remaining challenging, and a flat medium-term earnings profile offsetting a modestly attractive valuation.


<ul><li>Spark NZ (SPK) has announced price increases across its post-paid mobile and broadband (fibre and copper) plans, effective 31 July 2026.</li><li>SPK has indicated it will raise post-paid mobile prices by mid-single digits from 31 July 2026.</li><li>SPK has also increased fibre prices by ~+4–5% and copper prices by ~+8%, effective 31 July 2026.</li></ul>

Spark NZ (SPK) has announced price increases across its post-paid mobile and broadband (fibre and copper) plans, effective 31 July 2026.SPK has indicated it will raise post-paid mobile prices by mid-single digits from 31 July 2026.SPK has also increased fibre prices by ~+4–5% and copper prices by ~+8%, effective 31 July 2026.

Spark NZ (SPK): Post-Paid Mobile And Fibre Price Increases

<ul><li>Datamine's March 2026 quarter Telcowatch data showed continued market share losses for Spark NZ (SPK) in its core mobile market.</li><li>We expect SPK's total mobile connections to decline ~-2% in FY26 and, taken together, these signals increase our confidence that EBITDAI will marginally fall in FY27 versus FY26.</li><li>We leave our below consensus earnings forecasts unchanged (~-2% below consensus EBITDAI in FY27/FY28) but retain NEUTRAL on valuation grounds, with SPK trading on a ~10% gross yield.</li></ul>

Datamine's March 2026 quarter Telcowatch data showed continued market share losses for Spark NZ (SPK) in its core mobile market.We expect SPK's total mobile connections to decline ~-2% in FY26 and, taken together, these signals increase our confidence that EBITDAI will marginally fall in FY27 versus FY26.We leave our below consensus earnings forecasts unchanged (~-2% below consensus EBITDAI in FY27/FY28) but retain NEUTRAL on valuation grounds, with SPK trading on a ~10% gross yield.

<ul><li>We upgrade Spark NZ (SPK) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM, with the risk—reward more balanced at the current valuation.</li><li>However, overall 1H26 EBITDAI was -3% below our expectation, driven by weakness in lower-multiple legacy and cyclical business segments.</li><li>SPK’s mobile segment delivered its first year-on-year growth in service revenue in two years due to a strong increase in post-paid ARPU (up +5%).</li></ul>

We upgrade Spark NZ (SPK) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM, with the risk—reward more balanced at the current valuation.However, overall 1H26 EBITDAI was -3% below our expectation, driven by weakness in lower-multiple legacy and cyclical business segments.SPK’s mobile segment delivered its first year-on-year growth in service revenue in two years due to a strong increase in post-paid ARPU (up +5%).

Spark Nz - 1H26 Result—A Value Pack, Up To NEUTRAL

<ul><li>Spark NZ (SPK) will report its 1H26 result on Wednesday 18 February.</li><li>Year-on-year earnings growth should be solid given 1H26 is lapping the weak 1H25 and 12 months ago SPK executed material cost out.</li><li>Our key focus areas will be: (1) mobile service revenue growth, particularly the split between connections and ARPU; (2) fixed wireless, where a further decline in connections (-3k loss in 2H25) would be worrying given this is a high-margin revenue stream; (3) any signs of a recovery in IT profitability; and (4) cost out delivered in line with indications, with opex ~-NZ$40m lower than 1H25.</li></ul>

Spark NZ (SPK) will report its 1H26 result on Wednesday 18 February.Year-on-year earnings growth should be solid given 1H26 is lapping the weak 1H25 and 12 months ago SPK executed material cost out.Our key focus areas will be: (1) mobile service revenue growth, particularly the split between connections and ARPU; (2) fixed wireless, where a further decline in connections (-3k loss in 2H25) would be worrying given this is a high-margin revenue stream; (3) any signs of a recovery in IT profitability; and (4) cost out delivered in line with indications, with opex ~-NZ$40m lower than 1H25.

Spark NZ 1H26 Preview—Connections And Costs

New Zealand

Spark New Zealand Limited (formerly Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Limited) is a digital services provider for communications, entertainment and IT services over its networks and the Cloud to New Zealanders and businesses. The Company's strategy is focused on customer experiences, mobility and data.

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Spark New Zealand (SPK AU)

Spark NZ Searching for Better Reception

Spark NZ (SPK) has fallen ~-10% over the last two months, broadly in line with global telcos, while valuation is becoming more attractive; we stop...

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ (SPK): Post-Paid Mobile And Fibre Price Increases

Spark NZ (SPK) has announced price increases across its post-paid mobile and broadband (fibre and copper) plans, effective 31 July 2026. SPK has...

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ Mobile Signal Fading

Datamine's March 2026 quarter Telcowatch data showed continued market share losses for Spark NZ (SPK) in its core mobile market. We expect SPK's...

Forsyth Barr

Spark Nz - 1H26 Result—A Value Pack, Up To NEUTRAL

SPK’s mobile segment delivered its first year-on-year growth in service revenue in two years due to a strong increase in post-paid ARPU (up +5%).

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ 1H26 Preview—Connections And Costs

Year-on-year earnings growth should be solid given 1H26 is lapping the weak 1H25 and 12 months ago SPK executed material cost out.

Forsyth Barr

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