Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gentrack-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2752:1" rel="noopener">Gentrack (GTK NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dorchester-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1854:1" rel="noopener">Turners Automotive (TRA NZ)</a> will be added to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synlait-milk-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16298:1" rel="noopener">Synlait Milk (SML NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-edge-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Edge (PEB NZ)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.</li>
<li>The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.</li>
</ul>



Gentrack (GTK NZ) and Turners Automotive (TRA NZ) will be added to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index while Synlait Milk (SML NZ) and Pacific Edge (PEB NZ) will be deleted.
There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.
The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.


S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Auckland Intl Airport / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Auckland City Council plans to sell around 4.5% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:597:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)</a> to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24.</li>
<li>The deal is very well flagged with Auckland City Council having publicly stated their intention to sell 7% of the stock in Jun 2023.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Auckland City Council plans to sell around 4.5% of Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ) to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24.
The deal is very well flagged with Auckland City Council having publicly stated their intention to sell 7% of the stock in Jun 2023.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Auckland Airport Placement - Well Flagged, LO Support but Still a Bit Tricky

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Spark (SPK) delivered a solid result in-line with guidance and expectations.</li>
<li>Likewise its FY24 guidance for both dividends and EBITDAI was in-line with our forecasts.</li>
<li>We see it as a sound result that should support the stock price around current levels. </li>
</ul>


Spark (SPK) delivered a solid result in-line with guidance and expectations.
Likewise its FY24 guidance for both dividends and EBITDAI was in-line with our forecasts.
We see it as a sound result that should support the stock price around current levels. 


Spark NZ - FY23 Result — Delivered the Cake but No Icing

<ul><li>Spark NZ (SPK) will report its FY23 result on Friday, 18 August.</li><li>It has guided for FY23 EBITDAI to be at the lower end of NZ$1,185m to NZ$1,225m.</li><li>The guidance implies a strong 2H23, with EBITDAI up +10% vs 2H22 even at the very low end. </li></ul>

Spark NZ (SPK) will report its FY23 result on Friday, 18 August.It has guided for FY23 EBITDAI to be at the lower end of NZ$1,185m to NZ$1,225m.The guidance implies a strong 2H23, with EBITDAI up +10% vs 2H22 even at the very low end. 

Spark NZ - FY23 Preview — Clouds on the Horizon

<ul><li>The curse of the incumbent; SPK will likely experience significant cloud headwinds for several years to come</li><li>Free cash flow declining again thanks to growth capex: SPK has delivered admirable growth in free cash flow over the last five years and are back to growing its dividends.</li><li>Mobile still strong — but easy wins from One NZ are likely behind us as One NZ has improved its service levels </li></ul>

The curse of the incumbent; SPK will likely experience significant cloud headwinds for several years to comeFree cash flow declining again thanks to growth capex: SPK has delivered admirable growth in free cash flow over the last five years and are back to growing its dividends.Mobile still strong — but easy wins from One NZ are likely behind us as One NZ has improved its service levels 

Spark NZ: Running Fast, Moving Slow; Down to NEUTRAL

New Zealand

Spark New Zealand Limited (formerly Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Limited) provides digital communications, entertainment and IT services over its networks and the Cloud to New Zealanders and businesses. The Company's strategy is focused on mobility, data and effortless service, and cost.

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Spark New Zealand (SPK NZ)

S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

As expected, Gentrack and Turners Auto will replace Synlait Milk and Pacific Edge in the NZX50 Index. The adds have jumped recently and there...

Brian Freitas

Auckland Airport Placement - Well Flagged, LO Support but Still a Bit Tricky

Auckland City Council plans to sell around 4.5% of Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ) to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

Spark NZ - FY23 Result — Delivered the Cake but No Icing

Spark (SPK) delivered a solid result in-line with guidance and expectations. Likewise its FY24 guidance for both dividends and EBITDAI was in-line...

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ - FY23 Preview — Clouds on the Horizon

Spark NZ (SPK) will report its FY23 result on Friday, 18 August. It has guided for FY23 EBITDAI to be at the lower end of NZ$1,185m to NZ$1,225m.

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ: Running Fast, Moving Slow; Down to NEUTRAL

Over the last five years Spark (SPK) has delivered an EBITDA CAGR of ~+4%. The key drivers have been; (1) cost out and (2) strong mobile pricing...

Forsyth Barr

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