Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The swiftly growing number of participants in the Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey signaling tighter lending standards for Commercial and Industrial loans suggests a 2023 default rate above 6%.</li>
<li>Improved high yield quality and still low interest expenses put our 2023 default estimate at 5.0%, with potential contagion risk coming from the CMBS market.</li>
<li>In any case, spreads do not reflect a higher default rate, let alone a recession, and remain too low to provide value. Underweight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-iboxx-high-yield-corporate-bond-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27948:1" rel="noopener">High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG US)</a> </li>
</ul>


The swiftly growing number of participants in the Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey signaling tighter lending standards for Commercial and Industrial loans suggests a 2023 default rate above 6%.
Improved high yield quality and still low interest expenses put our 2023 default estimate at 5.0%, with potential contagion risk coming from the CMBS market.
In any case, spreads do not reflect a higher default rate, let alone a recession, and remain too low to provide value. Underweight High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG US) 


High Yield Bonds: Defaults Rising to 5.0% but Spreads in Lalaland

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

In this report we detail our U.S. investment thesis and provide a detailed technical appraisal of the broad market, as well as highlighting attractive investment opportunities within each of our 12 Sectors.

In this report we detail our U.S. investment thesis and provide a detailed technical appraisal of the broad market, as well as highlighting attractive investment opportunities within each of our 12 Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Defensive Areas Weakening; Broad Market Attempting to Bottom

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

We presented our tech heavy case over the weekend in our weekly edition with updated charts this morning. NDX – Worth paying attention to the fact that recent NDX strength has not pierced upper Bollinger bands (two fades and third would set up a correction). Fading below this band implies the rise is getting tired as breadth narrows. NDX RSI has already cracked support.  SOX also backed off of key highs and looks heavy. A series of intra-day selling reversals would be a more negative combination…

We presented our tech heavy case over the weekend in our weekly edition with updated charts this morning. NDX – Worth paying attention to the fact that recent NDX strength has not pierced upper Bollinger bands (two fades and third would set up a correction). Fading below this band implies the rise is getting tired as breadth narrows. NDX RSI has already cracked support.  SOX also backed off of key highs and looks heavy. A series of intra-day selling reversals would be a more negative combination…

NDX Trendline Crack and XLF Triangulation

Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Summary: Housing has several characteristics that mean it is almost perfectly designed to be prone to bubble-like behaviour. By definition a bubble occurs when the price of an asset is significantly overvalued making it increasingly difficult to justify based on underlying fundamentals. In such situations it is the overriding optimism of the crowd, with unrealistically high expectations, that acts as the propellant for further gains. Ten years on from the bursting of the US housing market…

Summary: Housing has several characteristics that mean it is almost perfectly designed to be prone to bubble-like behaviour. By definition a bubble occurs when the price of an asset is significantly overvalued making it increasingly difficult to justify based on underlying fundamentals. In such situations it is the overriding optimism of the crowd, with unrealistically high expectations, that acts as the propellant for further gains. Ten years on from the bursting of the US housing market…

The Market Sentimentalist: Global Real Estate – Where Are The Risks Residing?

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Three quick takeaways from the annual 2016 data on commercial property sales transactions - income producing assets in office, retail, industrial, apartment and hotel sectors, excluding the development sites. Select data/charts courtesy of our data partner <a href="http://www.rcanalytics.com" target="_blank">Real Capital Analytics</a>:1. GLOBAL DOLLAR VOLUMES DOWNFor the first time since 2009, the global volumes declined overall and across the major regions. Low interest rates had clearly given a boost to volumes over the past 7 years, with the rich…

Three quick takeaways from the annual 2016 data on commercial property sales transactions - income producing assets in office, retail, industrial, apartment and hotel sectors, excluding the development sites. Select data/charts courtesy of our data partner Real Capital Analytics:1. GLOBAL DOLLAR VOLUMES DOWNFor the first time since 2009, the global volumes declined overall and across the major regions. Low interest rates had clearly given a boost to volumes over the past 7 years, with the rich…

Global Capital Trends In Real Estate In 2016

United States

SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund seeks investment results that correspond to the price and yield of the Bloomberg High Yield Very Liquid Bond Index.

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SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond (JNK US)

High Yield Bonds: Defaults Rising to 5.0% but Spreads in Lalaland

Swiftly tightening lending standards signal a spike in the high yield default rate. Yet, spreads hardly reflect any default and recession risks....

Jeroen Blokland

U.S. Equity Strategy: Defensive Areas Weakening; Broad Market Attempting to Bottom

In this report we detail our U.S. investment thesis and provide a detailed technical appraisal of the broad market, as well as highlighting...

Vermilion Research

NDX Trendline Crack and XLF Triangulation

We presented our tech heavy case over the weekend in our weekly edition with updated charts this morning. NDX – Worth paying attention to the fact...

Thomas Schroeder

The Market Sentimentalist: Global Real Estate – Where Are The Risks Residing?

Summary: Housing has several characteristics that mean it is almost perfectly designed to be prone to bubble-like behaviour. By definition a bubble...

Amareos

Global Capital Trends In Real Estate In 2016

Three quick takeaways from the annual 2016 data on commercial property sales transactions - income producing assets in office, retail, industrial,...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)