Covid-19: Policy Cart Coming Before the Horse
The Fed has cut its target rate by 50bp to a range of 1-1.25%, which places pressure on the BoE to make a similarly panicked move. I now expect a...
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UK: Jan-20 Sales Surge Starts to Fix Stats Mess
The ONS report that retail sales surged at the start of 2020, by 1.6% m-o-m ex-fuel. However, a failure to correctly adjust for Black Friday’s...
423 Views
UK Inflation: Temporary Resurgence in Jan-20
UK inflation broadly exceeded Consensus expectations in Jan-20, with the CPI rate printing at 1.77% and the RPI at 2.7% (index of 290.6). However,...
404 Views
UK: Jobs Making All the Right Moves at End-19
Employment maintained rapid growth in 4Q19 at 180k, in line with my forecast. Sampling effects have exaggerated the upswing after similarly...
422 Views
Brexit & History's Recoil: Sinn Fein Empowered in Both Parts of Ireland
For the first time in 101 years, Sinn Fein has won a plurality in Ireland's election, and is likely to have at least a share of power in Eire. It...
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