Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Did anyone notice the upside breakouts in both gold and gold mining stocks? In the short term, gold may have to contend with overhead resistance at the site of its 200-day moving average (dma). While we are no gold bugs, the breakout could be a technical signal of an intermediate bullish phase for precious metals.</p><p>We conclude that the upside breakout in gold is constructive for the precious metals complex. Moreover, we have laid out a scenario offered by Jurrien Timmer at Fidelity of how gold prices could go parabolic by 2023.</p><p>In addition, the price action of the precious metals has important macro implications for other asset classes. In this environment, investors should focus on stocks that can continue to grow earnings in the current environment. This means companies that can pass on their rising input costs and cyclical sectors and industries that can benefit from strong sales growth.</p>

Did anyone notice the upside breakouts in both gold and gold mining stocks? In the short term, gold may have to contend with overhead resistance at the site of its 200-day moving average (dma). While we are no gold bugs, the breakout could be a technical signal of an intermediate bullish phase for precious metals.We conclude that the upside breakout in gold is constructive for the precious metals complex. Moreover, we have laid out a scenario offered by Jurrien Timmer at Fidelity of how gold prices could go parabolic by 2023.In addition, the price action of the precious metals has important macro implications for other asset classes. In this environment, investors should focus on stocks that can continue to grow earnings in the current environment. This means companies that can pass on their rising input costs and cyclical sectors and industries that can benefit from strong sales growth.

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshot-update-on-bitcoin-vs-gold-via-text-mining" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46576" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshot:  Update on Bitcoin Vs. Gold Via Text Mining</a> we compared the trajectory of sentiment in articles discussing BTC as a "store of value" relative to similar mentions of gold; at the time, December 22, we saw a sharp divergence with BTC "store of value" sentiment at a new high of +2x STDEVs while gold was gathering significant negative momentum on the same topic</li>
<li>Trends have been mean-reverting since, with sentiment for BTC softer on the "store of value" question while gold continues to stabilize</li>
<li>The discussion of gold as an inflation hedge has made a notable comeback (volumetrically) after dropping sharply around the November elections; this has not affected the BTC inflation hedge narrative, which continues to trend despite recent volatility</li>
<li>Reports of BTC institutional adoption surged in November-December and are still trending albeit at a slower rate; but discussion of cryptocurrency regulation has surged in recent weeks to a new multi-year high</li>
<li>Mentions of BTC in conjunction with "bubble" are up 4-5x STDEVs since the second week of January</li>
<li>Based on the above signals, and in the context of the alleged "double-spend" headlines, the prevailing narrative of BTC competing with gold over the same AUM pool in a zero-sum game appears to be losing steam on the margin</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tool text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


In TMI Snapshot:  Update on Bitcoin Vs. Gold Via Text Mining we compared the trajectory of sentiment in articles discussing BTC as a "store of value" relative to similar mentions of gold; at the time, December 22, we saw a sharp divergence with BTC "store of value" sentiment at a new high of +2x STDEVs while gold was gathering significant negative momentum on the same topic
Trends have been mean-reverting since, with sentiment for BTC softer on the "store of value" question while gold continues to stabilize
The discussion of gold as an inflation hedge has made a notable comeback (volumetrically) after dropping sharply around the November elections; this has not affected the BTC inflation hedge narrative, which continues to trend despite recent volatility
Reports of BTC institutional adoption surged in November-December and are still trending albeit at a slower rate; but discussion of cryptocurrency regulation has surged in recent weeks to a new multi-year high
Mentions of BTC in conjunction with "bubble" are up 4-5x STDEVs since the second week of January
Based on the above signals, and in the context of the alleged "double-spend" headlines, the prevailing narrative of BTC competing with gold over the same AUM pool in a zero-sum game appears to be losing steam on the margin
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tool text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Bitcoin Vs. Gold Update and Recent Crypto Topics Via Text Mining

<ul>
<li>We examine a range of gold-related custom indicators to chart the thematic catalysts for gold's persistent weakness since August</li>
<li>Inflation hedging interest is back, having last spiked with gold in early August; but as our text-mining highlights, inflation hedging is now primarily associated with cryptocurrencies rather than precious metals </li>
<li> Gold saw a post-election false start which was abruptly halted by a barrage of vaccine news, and more recently hints of an orderly presidential transition; as a result of lingering post-election dissonance, our diffusion of positive vs. negative gold commentary does not point to imminent reversal from recent negative trends</li>
<li>Global financial media discussion of stimulus has dropped to a YTD low, which appears to be strongly correlated with gold's recent move, replaced by a spike in discussion of easing financial conditions</li>
<li>After a September-October hiatus, we see an upward slope in our text-mined weak-USD expressions indicator in recent weeks, though far less dramatic than the multi-STDEV spike seen over the summer</li>
<li>Mentions of tail risk hedging declined to a 14-month low, having peaked in early April</li>
<li>With gold/SPX T6M correlation running at a decade-high +87% in September, gold's traditional "uncorrelated" portfolio function has been called into question for good reason; similarly, positive gold/USD correlations in the past 3-4 months have not inspired confidence, but given the short interval this does not stand out as abnormally dysfunctional</li>
<li>Overall, we see gold-positive inflation hedge demand, persistent pressure on USD and easing financial conditions as currently more than offset by gold's recent dysfunctions, BTC's emergence as competing inflation hedge, lack of interest in tail risk hedging and falling stimulus expectations; we see short-term downside limited to ~1x STDEV or $1700-1725/oz based on the current data set, following significant unwind of speculative interest and ETF outflows</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


We examine a range of gold-related custom indicators to chart the thematic catalysts for gold's persistent weakness since August
Inflation hedging interest is back, having last spiked with gold in early August; but as our text-mining highlights, inflation hedging is now primarily associated with cryptocurrencies rather than precious metals 
 Gold saw a post-election false start which was abruptly halted by a barrage of vaccine news, and more recently hints of an orderly presidential transition; as a result of lingering post-election dissonance, our diffusion of positive vs. negative gold commentary does not point to imminent reversal from recent negative trends
Global financial media discussion of stimulus has dropped to a YTD low, which appears to be strongly correlated with gold's recent move, replaced by a spike in discussion of easing financial conditions
After a September-October hiatus, we see an upward slope in our text-mined weak-USD expressions indicator in recent weeks, though far less dramatic than the multi-STDEV spike seen over the summer
Mentions of tail risk hedging declined to a 14-month low, having peaked in early April
With gold/SPX T6M correlation running at a decade-high +87% in September, gold's traditional "uncorrelated" portfolio function has been called into question for good reason; similarly, positive gold/USD correlations in the past 3-4 months have not inspired confidence, but given the short interval this does not stand out as abnormally dysfunctional
Overall, we see gold-positive inflation hedge demand, persistent pressure on USD and easing financial conditions as currently more than offset by gold's recent dysfunctions, BTC's emergence as competing inflation hedge, lack of interest in tail risk hedging and falling stimulus expectations; we see short-term downside limited to ~1x STDEV or $1700-1725/oz based on the current data set, following significant unwind of speculative interest and ETF outflows
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot: Text-Mining the Thematics Behind Gold's Disappointing Fall

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>Bitcoin target US$25,000, given gold ‘fair value’ of US$2,500/oz</li>
<li>Bitcoin and gold respond to future monetary inflation unleashed by potential CBDC</li>
<li>CBDC will drive Central Bank balance sheets far higher</li>
<li>Future monetary policy levers will focus on credit growth and competitive devaluations</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin target US$25,000, given gold ‘fair value’ of US$2,500/oz
Bitcoin and gold respond to future monetary inflation unleashed by potential CBDC
CBDC will drive Central Bank balance sheets far higher
Future monetary policy levers will focus on credit growth and competitive devaluations


Coming Currency Wars Or Why The Price Of Bitcoin Could Double

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-gold-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1" rel="noopener">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)</a> will be used for this tactical outlook analysis of the Gold price.</li>
<li>After the nearly 180% rally from early 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-gold-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1" rel="noopener">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)</a> this year corrected nearly 30% from the January top.</li>
<li>The current outlook, based on our quantitative model is discussed in this insight.</li>
</ul>



SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US) will be used for this tactical outlook analysis of the Gold price.
After the nearly 180% rally from early 2024, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US) this year corrected nearly 30% from the January top.
The current outlook, based on our quantitative model is discussed in this insight.


United States

SPDR Gold Shares is an investment fund incorporated in the USA.  The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses. The Trust holds gold and is expected from time to time to issue Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and to distribute gold in connection with redemptions of Baskets.

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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)

Interpreting the Gold Breakout

The upside breakout in gold is constructive for the precious metals complex. The price action of the precious metals has also important macro...

Cam Hui

TMI Snapshot: Bitcoin Vs. Gold Update and Recent Crypto Topics Via Text Mining

Last month our text-mining saw powerful narratives emerge around Bitcoin as an alternative to gold, but recent vol has weakened the BTC "store of...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshot: Text-Mining the Thematics Behind Gold's Disappointing Fall

We chart the thematic catalysts for gold's persistent weakness since August with a range of gold-related custom text-mined indicators, offering...

Elan Gore

Coming Currency Wars Or Why The Price Of Bitcoin Could Double

New popularity of Central Bank Digital Currency with policy-makers combined with MMT is a dangerous cocktail. Gold and Bitcoin are alternatives,...

Michael J. Howell

Tactical Outlook: Where Is GOLD Going?

Gold could find soon a bottom, and rally. BUY price zones and targets are discussed in the insight. Outlook analysis based on our GLD quantitative...

Nico Rosti

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