Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.</li><li>The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.</li><li>I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.</li><li>In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.</li></ul>

Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.

<ul><li>The S&amp;P500 moved sharply lower overnight, shedding 3% apparently on continued concerns about China's future growth prospects.&nbsp; Despite the correction in recent months, the stock market still doesn't look particularly cheap, with the prospective PE on the S&amp;P500 still higher than historical norms. &nbsp;The headwinds facing US stock investors stem from the stagnation in expected profitability over the past 12 months.&nbsp;</li><li>For Australia, the market&rsquo;s prospective PE of 14.5x suggests that the market is neither cheap or expensive at current levels.&nbsp; Like the US, the key headwind facing corporate Australia is the stagnation of future growth prospects, which has now dragged on for five years now due to the terms of trade shock.&nbsp;</li><li>As far as reporting season goes, the market continues to punish even small misses from high growth stocks.&nbsp; I discuss the market pricing for Seek.com and other market darlings that have confronted growth stalls in the past year.</li></ul>

The S&amp;P500 moved sharply lower overnight, shedding 3% apparently on continued concerns about China's future growth prospects.&nbsp; Despite the correction in recent months, the stock market still doesn't look particularly cheap, with the prospective PE on the S&amp;P500 still higher than historical norms. &nbsp;The headwinds facing US stock investors stem from the stagnation in expected profitability over the past 12 months.&nbsp;For Australia, the market&rsquo;s prospective PE of 14.5x suggests that the market is neither cheap or expensive at current levels.&nbsp; Like the US, the key headwind facing corporate Australia is the stagnation of future growth prospects, which has now dragged on for five years now due to the terms of trade shock.&nbsp;As far as reporting season goes, the market continues to punish even small misses from high growth stocks.&nbsp; I discuss the market pricing for Seek.com and other market darlings that have confronted growth stalls in the past year.

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<div>Below are some thoughts on the current situation in Turkey re: the Kurdish flare up, the likely outcome of which will be an AKP majority government. Not all kurds are the same and ISIS is succeeding in its tactics of neutering one of the more effective forces against it, although the YPG &amp; Peshmerga will remain.</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>Egypt is now at a crucial point in its development, with real risks of repeating the mistakes of Algeria in the 90s civil war.&nbsp;</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>Further escalation may well mark a great opportunity for investment however as the underlying economy, ex-tourism, will continue to hum along with the real victim of all this being civil society.&nbsp;</div>

Below are some thoughts on the current situation in Turkey re: the Kurdish flare up, the likely outcome of which will be an AKP majority government. Not all kurds are the same and ISIS is succeeding in its tactics of neutering one of the more effective forces against it, although the YPG &amp; Peshmerga will remain.&nbsp;Egypt is now at a crucial point in its development, with real risks of repeating the mistakes of Algeria in the 90s civil war.&nbsp;&nbsp;Further escalation may well mark a great opportunity for investment however as the underlying economy, ex-tourism, will continue to hum along with the real victim of all this being civil society.&nbsp;

A Kurdish conundrum & Egypt faces the ghosts of Algeria

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

<p>Airbus and Boeing, the powerhouses of the aircraft manufacturing industry and the largest duopoly in the world, shared revenues of $407.5 billion in 2014. As the fight for market share trudges along, it is a battle of nerves and steel (or carbon fiber in this matter). The airlines industry today is dynamic and competitive, investing in cost-saving measures rapidly. How are these two manufacturing giants coping up? Let us take a look.</p>

Airbus and Boeing, the powerhouses of the aircraft manufacturing industry and the largest duopoly in the world, shared revenues of $407.5 billion in 2014. As the fight for market share trudges along, it is a battle of nerves and steel (or carbon fiber in this matter). The airlines industry today is dynamic and competitive, investing in cost-saving measures rapidly. How are these two manufacturing giants coping up? Let us take a look.

Flying through turbulent or clear skies: An analysis on Airbus & Boeing

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>This follow-up revisits Buy the Dip by testing calendar effects and ETF fund flows to distinguish price outcomes from actual investor behaviour across different market regimes.</li>
<li>ETF flow analysis provides a clearer window into behaviour, revealing how investors allocate capital during rising, falling, and transitional markets.</li>
<li>Comparing ETFs highlights that Buy the Dip cannot be universally applied and depends heavily on asset-specific dynamics</li>
</ul>


This follow-up revisits Buy the Dip by testing calendar effects and ETF fund flows to distinguish price outcomes from actual investor behaviour across different market regimes.
ETF flow analysis provides a clearer window into behaviour, revealing how investors allocate capital during rising, falling, and transitional markets.
Comparing ETFs highlights that Buy the Dip cannot be universally applied and depends heavily on asset-specific dynamics


Buy the Dip Part 2: What Gold, Bitcoin and the SP500 Reveal About Investor Behaviour

United States

SPDR Gold Shares is an investment fund incorporated in the USA.  The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses. The Trust holds gold and is expected from time to time to issue Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and to distribute gold in connection with redemptions of Baskets.

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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)

Weekly Impressions

Annualised volatility in the S&P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average...

Sam Ferraro

Weekly Impressions

The S&P500 moved sharply lower overnight, shedding 3% apparently on continued concerns about China's future growth prospects. Despite the...

Sam Ferraro

A Kurdish conundrum & Egypt faces the ghosts of Algeria

Below are some thoughts on the current situation in Turkey re: the Kurdish flare up, the likely outcome of which will be an AKP majority...

Emad Mostaque

Flying through turbulent or clear skies: An analysis on Airbus & Boeing

Airbus and Boeing, the powerhouses of the aircraft manufacturing industry and the largest duopoly in the world, shared revenues of $407.5 billion...

Ishita Jain

Buy the Dip Part 2: What Gold, Bitcoin and the SP500 Reveal About Investor Behaviour

ETF flow analysis provides a clearer window into behaviour, revealing how investors allocate capital during rising, falling, and transitional markets.

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)