Global Macro and Currencies, FX Macro

FX Macro

Global Macro and Currencies

Brings you up to speed on the relevant macro developments: central banks, economic data, sentiment, intermarket analysis. Every weekend. For traders, investors and everyone interested in what's going on in FX and macro.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Bond yields are the overwhelming focus; the 10-year breached 5.3% and most writers see fiscal deficits, heavy issuance, and AI capex driving yields structurally higher.</li><li>Inflation is considered persistent, with core PCE above 3% and the Fed missing its target for 66 months.</li><li>Equity market internals are deteriorating sharply — record index highs are being built on narrow mega-cap leadership, a classic late-cycle signal.</li></ul>

Bond yields are the overwhelming focus; the 10-year breached 5.3% and most writers see fiscal deficits, heavy issuance, and AI capex driving yields structurally higher.Inflation is considered persistent, with core PCE above 3% and the Fed missing its target for 66 months.Equity market internals are deteriorating sharply — record index highs are being built on narrow mega-cap leadership, a classic late-cycle signal.

Everyone wants to catch the falling knife in the bond market

Understand How Markets Actually Work, Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Marc Rudajev

Understand How Markets Actually Work

Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Learning.Investing.Thriving. is built on a simple idea: If you want to build wealth, you need more than stock tips. You need to understand how markets actually work.

<ul><li>Look at the tape. The S&amp;P 500 sits less than 1% from an all-time high, the Nasdaq is within about 3% of its own record while Europe breaks records on a weekly basis.</li><li>On the surface, everything is fine. Now look underneath.</li><li>Korea has crashed by 27% while Brazil had fallen 16% before rebounding slightly this past week.</li></ul>

Look at the tape. The S&amp;P 500 sits less than 1% from an all-time high, the Nasdaq is within about 3% of its own record while Europe breaks records on a weekly basis.On the surface, everything is fine. Now look underneath.Korea has crashed by 27% while Brazil had fallen 16% before rebounding slightly this past week.

Markets Alert: The Everything-Is-Fine Rally vs Is Armageddon Around The Corner?

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Today I don’t want to talk about commodity markets - today I want to present you a new strategy we designed over the past years.</li><li>Our goal was always to find a way to translate our commodity/macro expertise also to commodity equities - and as you may know this can be quite tough.</li><li>But what if I tell you there is an equity staretgy that translates our framework to equities: has no signifacant correlation to the broad equity market</li></ul>

Today I don’t want to talk about commodity markets - today I want to present you a new strategy we designed over the past years.Our goal was always to find a way to translate our commodity/macro expertise also to commodity equities - and as you may know this can be quite tough.But what if I tell you there is an equity staretgy that translates our framework to equities: has no signifacant correlation to the broad equity market

We have a Mighty Commodity Equity Strategy now

Research from Value Investing, Value Investing

Value Investing

Research from Value Investing

I am a value investor. "Value", as defined in Value Investing, is simply the act of buying something for less than its worth. I treat my equity investment as a loan to the business - where the priority is to get back my principal in full, rather than achieving maximum yield. I consider my equity investment as a slightly higher risk loan extended to the business with slightly more accommodative loan covenants - hence justifying a slightly higher yield. While I identify as a value investor and cover all stocks and macro topics indiscriminately, most of my research will have an ASEAN bent as that’s where I’m geographically located.

<ul><li>The red &amp; blue arrows highlight the apples-to-apples comparisons to be made between the respective bars (more details below)</li><li>Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022.</li><li>This article is a repeat of that for all the stocks I had written about in 2023.</li></ul>

The red &amp; blue arrows highlight the apples-to-apples comparisons to be made between the respective bars (more details below)Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022.This article is a repeat of that for all the stocks I had written about in 2023.

Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023

Founder, TPW Advisory

TPW Advisory

Founder

Independent Investment Advisory Boutique

TPW Advisory is an independent investment advisory boutique located in NYC offering asset allocation & portfolio strategy advice, white label research and global, multi asset ETF based model portfolio delivery services.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Trees don’t grow straight to the sky do they?</li><li>So why would one expect stocks to just keep soaring after one of the more aggressive 3 month moves in history, especially among non US DM or EAFE (All Star Charts notes EAFE doubled SPY performance since October).</li><li>The US has enjoyed the January trifecta as we wrote about last week which has a perfect track record of higher stocks a year out.</li></ul>

Trees don’t grow straight to the sky do they?So why would one expect stocks to just keep soaring after one of the more aggressive 3 month moves in history, especially among non US DM or EAFE (All Star Charts notes EAFE doubled SPY performance since October).The US has enjoyed the January trifecta as we wrote about last week which has a perfect track record of higher stocks a year out.

TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

Everyone wants to catch the falling knife in the bond market

Bond yields are the overwhelming focus; the 10-year breached 5.3% and most writers see fiscal deficits, heavy issuance, and AI capex driving yields...

FX Macro

Markets Alert: The Everything-Is-Fine Rally vs Is Armageddon Around The Corner?

Look at the tape. The S&P 500 sits less than 1% from an all-time high, the Nasdaq is within about 3% of its own record while Europe breaks records...

Marc Rudajev

We have a Mighty Commodity Equity Strategy now

Our goal was always to find a way to translate our commodity/macro expertise also to commodity equities - and as you may know this can be quite tough.

The Commodity Report

Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023

Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022. This article is a repeat of...

Value Investing

TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Trees don’t grow straight to the sky do they? So why would one expect stocks to just keep soaring after one of the more aggressive 3 month moves in...

TPW Advisory

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