Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch where we run through interesting observations found in positioning data for the latest week (now back on schedule).</li><li>Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about discount rates and swap-pricing of the future of central bank policy.</li><li>As we have addressed, conditions are slowly but surely starting to decrease the risk/reward of going long-risk assets at current junctures.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch where we run through interesting observations found in positioning data for the latest week (now back on schedule).Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about discount rates and swap-pricing of the future of central bank policy.As we have addressed, conditions are slowly but surely starting to decrease the risk/reward of going long-risk assets at current junctures.

Positioning Watch – Positioning for Lower Yields and Weaker USD

<ul><li>The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go of the steering wheel on USD real rates.</li><li>The weekly credit data from the US economy keeps weakening and we are en route for a credit contraction in the US during Q1/Q2 next year.</li><li>Powell is probably right to let go of the tightness in USD real rates, but the question is whether he could be tempted to take back control in December in a final policy error?</li></ul>

The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go of the steering wheel on USD real rates.The weekly credit data from the US economy keeps weakening and we are en route for a credit contraction in the US during Q1/Q2 next year.Powell is probably right to let go of the tightness in USD real rates, but the question is whether he could be tempted to take back control in December in a final policy error?

Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD Just Break?

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

<ul><li>The U.S. House of Representatives has approved a short-term extension of the FY-2023 budget 3 days before the government was scheduled to shut down.</li><li>The so-called Continuing Resolution (CR) was passed in a 336-95 vote.</li><li>Two Democrats — Reps. Jake Auchincloss (Mass.) and Mike Quigley (Ill.) — and 93 Republicans opposed the bill. </li></ul>

The U.S. House of Representatives has approved a short-term extension of the FY-2023 budget 3 days before the government was scheduled to shut down.The so-called Continuing Resolution (CR) was passed in a 336-95 vote.Two Democrats — Reps. Jake Auchincloss (Mass.) and Mike Quigley (Ill.) — and 93 Republicans opposed the bill. 

US Policy Watch: No Shutdown but Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss yesterday’s CPI print before moving on to crude oil and then ending with fixed income positioning.</li><li>President Biden’s approval ratings continue to sour as the country heads into potential Oil price headwinds and numerous unsolved foreign policy challenges.</li><li>The Biden camp has launched a number of PR offensives during 2023 – most notably the coining of “Bidenomics”, but none have managed to close the gap, which has even accelerated since summertime.</li></ul>

This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss yesterday’s CPI print before moving on to crude oil and then ending with fixed income positioning.President Biden’s approval ratings continue to sour as the country heads into potential Oil price headwinds and numerous unsolved foreign policy challenges.The Biden camp has launched a number of PR offensives during 2023 – most notably the coining of “Bidenomics”, but none have managed to close the gap, which has even accelerated since summertime.

5 Things We Watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The market action in the wake of the recent Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal has been characterized by narrow leadership and poor breadth.</li>
<li>A historical analysis of market breadth shows that it can take two or more years of negative breadth divergences before a market tops out.</li>
<li>Today’s market conditions indicate that the current megacap growth leadership is not extended and can rise much further.</li>
</ul>


The market action in the wake of the recent Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal has been characterized by narrow leadership and poor breadth.
A historical analysis of market breadth shows that it can take two or more years of negative breadth divergences before a market tops out.
Today’s market conditions indicate that the current megacap growth leadership is not extended and can rise much further.


Will Narrow Leadership Unravel the ZBT Buy Signal?

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

Positioning Watch – Positioning for Lower Yields and Weaker USD

Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD Just Break?

The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go...

Steno Research

US Policy Watch: No Shutdown but Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

The U.S. House of Representatives has approved a short-term extension of the FY-2023 budget 3 days before the government was scheduled to shut...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income

This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss...

Steno Research

Will Narrow Leadership Unravel the ZBT Buy Signal?

The market action in the wake of the recent Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal has been characterized by narrow leadership and poor breadth.

Cam Hui

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)