Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The first day of the Santa rally window was December 24 and the last day was January 3, and Santa Claus didn't appear this year.</li>
<li>We believe investors need to consider short- and intermediate-term market conditions separately. Current market weakness has left the market poised for a reflex rally.</li>
<li>The key to the intermediate term outlook is the market’s behaviour during the anticipated rebound. Can breadth broaden out and more stocks participate on the upside?</li>
</ul>


The first day of the Santa rally window was December 24 and the last day was January 3, and Santa Claus didn't appear this year.
We believe investors need to consider short- and intermediate-term market conditions separately. Current market weakness has left the market poised for a reflex rally.
The key to the intermediate term outlook is the market’s behaviour during the anticipated rebound. Can breadth broaden out and more stocks participate on the upside?


<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 arrested its decline at its 20 dma and exhibited a bullish reversal and this reversal was confirmed by bullish internals.</li>
<li>Our base case calls for a rally into year-end. The coming week is the start of the seasonally bullish period to year-end.</li>
<li>One key risk is option sentiment, is showing signs of froth, though other sentiment indicators remain in neutral territory.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 arrested its decline at its 20 dma and exhibited a bullish reversal and this reversal was confirmed by bullish internals.
Our base case calls for a rally into year-end. The coming week is the start of the seasonally bullish period to year-end.
One key risk is option sentiment, is showing signs of froth, though other sentiment indicators remain in neutral territory.


Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.</li><li>Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond markets, impacted by very tight liquidity.</li><li>This story has been somewhat masked by policy events in the US and Germany, but it may nonetheless be the most important narrative for Q4, which is why you need to pay attention to it.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond markets, impacted by very tight liquidity.This story has been somewhat masked by policy events in the US and Germany, but it may nonetheless be the most important narrative for Q4, which is why you need to pay attention to it.

Steno Signals #125: EUR Liquidity Overtakes USD Liquidity – A Historic Shift

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report</li>
<li>Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.</li>
<li>The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
</ul>


Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report
Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.
The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.


Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

<ul>
<li>We continue to expect market sloppiness for September and possibly October. The market has flashed a cluster of Hindenburg Omens for five consecutive weeks.</li>
<li>Investment oriented accounts should regard any near-term weakness as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Pullbacks are normal at this point of the election year, and we expect higher stock prices by year-end.</li>
</ul>


We continue to expect market sloppiness for September and possibly October. The market has flashed a cluster of Hindenburg Omens for five consecutive weeks.
Investment oriented accounts should regard any near-term weakness as a buying opportunity.
Pullbacks are normal at this point of the election year, and we expect higher stock prices by year-end.


United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

A Failed Santa Claus Rally, What Now?

We believe investors need to consider short- and intermediate-term market conditions separately. Current market weakness has left the market poised...

Cam Hui

All Hail the Bullish Reversal

The S&P 500 arrested its decline at its 20 dma and exhibited a bullish reversal and this reversal was confirmed by bullish internals. Our base case...

Cam Hui

Steno Signals #125: EUR Liquidity Overtakes USD Liquidity – A Historic Shift

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen. Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond...

Steno Research

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- and Mid-Caps $SPX $NDX $QQQ $IJH $MDY $IWR as of the Oct 11 close above 5783; Russell 2000 $IWM Still Below...

Vermilion Research

What If the Magnificent Seven Are Done?

We continue to expect market sloppiness for September and possibly October. Investment oriented accounts should regard any near-term weakness as a...

Cam Hui

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