Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Nascent signs of a major market top are appearing even as the S&amp;P 500 tests its all-time high.</li>
<li>A growing negative breadth divergence and a potential growth shock of mass deportations could sideswipe stock prices.</li>
<li>The scenario of a major market top in Q1 or Q2 2025 is building. The caveat is these are very early signs of risk.</li>
</ul>


Nascent signs of a major market top are appearing even as the S&amp;P 500 tests its all-time high.
A growing negative breadth divergence and a potential growth shock of mass deportations could sideswipe stock prices.
The scenario of a major market top in Q1 or Q2 2025 is building. The caveat is these are very early signs of risk.


Two Key Risks to the Bull That No One Is Talking About

<ul>
<li>The first day of the Santa rally window was December 24 and the last day was January 3, and Santa Claus didn't appear this year.</li>
<li>We believe investors need to consider short- and intermediate-term market conditions separately. Current market weakness has left the market poised for a reflex rally.</li>
<li>The key to the intermediate term outlook is the market’s behaviour during the anticipated rebound. Can breadth broaden out and more stocks participate on the upside?</li>
</ul>


The first day of the Santa rally window was December 24 and the last day was January 3, and Santa Claus didn't appear this year.
We believe investors need to consider short- and intermediate-term market conditions separately. Current market weakness has left the market poised for a reflex rally.
The key to the intermediate term outlook is the market’s behaviour during the anticipated rebound. Can breadth broaden out and more stocks participate on the upside?


<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 arrested its decline at its 20 dma and exhibited a bullish reversal and this reversal was confirmed by bullish internals.</li>
<li>Our base case calls for a rally into year-end. The coming week is the start of the seasonally bullish period to year-end.</li>
<li>One key risk is option sentiment, is showing signs of froth, though other sentiment indicators remain in neutral territory.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 arrested its decline at its 20 dma and exhibited a bullish reversal and this reversal was confirmed by bullish internals.
Our base case calls for a rally into year-end. The coming week is the start of the seasonally bullish period to year-end.
One key risk is option sentiment, is showing signs of froth, though other sentiment indicators remain in neutral territory.


Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>For psychedelics, 2024 could be defined by the disappointing outcome of the FDA’s August review decision on Lykos Therapeutics’ (formerly MAPS) NDA for its MDMA-AT candidate for PTSD.</li><li>The FDA’s decision flew in the face of the anticipatory excitement following the NDA submission and award of breakthrough therapy designation earlier in the year following impressive results from Lykos’ two- part Phase 3 trial.</li><li>However, as disappointing as it is, particularly for the many millions of PTSD sufferers and Lykos, which subsequently reduced its workforce by 75%, in the grand scheme of things, this is only a temporary setback.</li></ul>

For psychedelics, 2024 could be defined by the disappointing outcome of the FDA’s August review decision on Lykos Therapeutics’ (formerly MAPS) NDA for its MDMA-AT candidate for PTSD.The FDA’s decision flew in the face of the anticipatory excitement following the NDA submission and award of breakthrough therapy designation earlier in the year following impressive results from Lykos’ two- part Phase 3 trial.However, as disappointing as it is, particularly for the many millions of PTSD sufferers and Lykos, which subsequently reduced its workforce by 75%, in the grand scheme of things, this is only a temporary setback.

Shroom Shmooz Psychedelics: Trends to Watch Going into 2025

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.</li><li>Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond markets, impacted by very tight liquidity.</li><li>This story has been somewhat masked by policy events in the US and Germany, but it may nonetheless be the most important narrative for Q4, which is why you need to pay attention to it.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond markets, impacted by very tight liquidity.This story has been somewhat masked by policy events in the US and Germany, but it may nonetheless be the most important narrative for Q4, which is why you need to pay attention to it.

Steno Signals #125: EUR Liquidity Overtakes USD Liquidity – A Historic Shift

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

Two Key Risks to the Bull That No One Is Talking About

A growing negative breadth divergence and a potential growth shock of mass deportations could sideswipe stock prices even as the S&P 500 makes an...

Cam Hui

A Failed Santa Claus Rally, What Now?

We believe investors need to consider short- and intermediate-term market conditions separately. Current market weakness has left the market poised...

Cam Hui

All Hail the Bullish Reversal

The S&P 500 arrested its decline at its 20 dma and exhibited a bullish reversal and this reversal was confirmed by bullish internals. Our base case...

Cam Hui

Shroom Shmooz Psychedelics: Trends to Watch Going into 2025

For psychedelics, 2024 could be defined by the disappointing outcome of the FDA’s August review decision on Lykos Therapeutics’ (formerly MAPS) NDA...

Water Tower Research

Steno Signals #125: EUR Liquidity Overtakes USD Liquidity – A Historic Shift

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen. Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond...

Steno Research

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Market Cap (USDm)

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