Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>February is one of the most volatile months for XOP with median historic vol 9.3 points greater than current implied vol.</li>
<li>The median absolute price change for February is also one of the largest of the year and at 8.69% exceeds the 1-month implied move.</li>
<li>Purchasing a 1-month straddle at current implied vol would have historically delivered a 55% win rate and average winner 2.9X the average loser.</li>
</ul>


February is one of the most volatile months for XOP with median historic vol 9.3 points greater than current implied vol.
The median absolute price change for February is also one of the largest of the year and at 8.69% exceeds the 1-month implied move.
Purchasing a 1-month straddle at current implied vol would have historically delivered a 55% win rate and average winner 2.9X the average loser.


Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>We highlight a  commodity sector with  a strong risk-reward ratio</li>
<li>Precious metals have likely just completed Wave B of their correction</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
We highlight a  commodity sector with  a strong risk-reward ratio
Precious metals have likely just completed Wave B of their correction


Overview #41 – Securing Supply, Unlocking Value: Global Themes in Equities and Commodities

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

Global X Mlp & Energy Infras / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With oil prices expected to remain under pressure from a persistent supply glut, investors and dealmakers are turning cautious and prioritising capital efficiency.</li>
<li>Private equity-led consolidation in midstream signals growing demand for yield resilience amid falling oil prices and market uncertainty.</li>
<li>MLPX ETF inflows in 2025 highlight investor preference for dependable midstream returns over cyclical energy exposure.</li>
</ul>


With oil prices expected to remain under pressure from a persistent supply glut, investors and dealmakers are turning cautious and prioritising capital efficiency.
Private equity-led consolidation in midstream signals growing demand for yield resilience amid falling oil prices and market uncertainty.
MLPX ETF inflows in 2025 highlight investor preference for dependable midstream returns over cyclical energy exposure.


Capital Shifts Toward Stability as Energy M&A Adapts to Lower Oil Prices

<ul>
<li>How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?</li>
<li>Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on</li>
<li>We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25</li>
</ul>


How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?
Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Oil’s positive reaction to bearish news was a signal to go long.</li>
<li>Regardless of the outcome of the current fighting between Israel and Iran, oil has likely bottomed.</li>
<li>We add oil and related equities to the inflation basket</li>
</ul>


Oil’s positive reaction to bearish news was a signal to go long.
Regardless of the outcome of the current fighting between Israel and Iran, oil has likely bottomed.
We add oil and related equities to the inflation basket


Tactical Trading -Oil Joins the Commodity Rally

United States

SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to replicate as closely as possible the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index, an equal-weighted index.

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SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration (XOP US)

EQD | Buy XOP 1-Month Straddle

February historically has high volatility for XOP, with potential for profitable trading opportunities using 1-month straddles.

John Ley

Overview #41 – Securing Supply, Unlocking Value: Global Themes in Equities and Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Lithium, Japan, precious Metals and the Oil and Gas sector

Rikki Malik

Capital Shifts Toward Stability as Energy M&A Adapts to Lower Oil Prices

Investors prioritize capital efficiency and yield resilience in midstream sector amid falling oil prices and market uncertainty.

Mint Finance

Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes

A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Rikki Malik

Tactical Trading -Oil Joins the Commodity Rally

Oil joins the commodity rally and has likely bottommed regardless of the outcome in the current Israel/Iran fighting. OIl related equities are now...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Buy XOP 1-Month Straddle

​February historically has high volatility for XOP, with potential for profitable trading opportunities using 1-month straddles.

John Ley

Overview #41 – Securing Supply, Unlocking Value: Global Themes in Equities and Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Lithium, Japan, precious Metals and the Oil and Gas sector

Rikki Malik

Capital Shifts Toward Stability as Energy M&A Adapts to Lower Oil Prices

​Investors prioritize capital efficiency and yield resilience in midstream sector amid falling oil prices and market uncertainty.

Mint Finance

Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes

​A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Rikki Malik

Tactical Trading -Oil Joins the Commodity Rally

Oil joins the commodity rally and has likely bottommed regardless of the outcome in the current Israel/Iran fighting. OIl related equities are now...

Rikki Malik

February historically has high volatility for XOP, with potential for profitable trading opportunities using 1-month straddles.

Investors prioritize capital efficiency and yield resilience in midstream sector amid falling oil prices and market uncertainty.

A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.