European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keysight-technologies-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1679:1" rel="noopener">Keysight Technologies In (KEYS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spirent-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22160:1" rel="noopener">Spirent Communications (SPT LN)</a> have agreed a recommended 201.5p/share cash acquisition via Scheme of Arrangement, an increase of 26.5p (15.1%) relative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viavi-solutions-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15310:1" rel="noopener">Viavi Solutions (VIAV US)</a>'s Offer.</li>
<li>Spirent, with some scarcity value, should be able to improve its cyclicality as part of Keysight. A counteroffer from Viavi looks unlikely unless Silver Lake significantly increases its stake.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 1.99%. Using Keysight's forecast s about completion, at best, estimated annual return would be 3.51% while at worst, 1.88%. This suggests there may be better opportunities elsewhere.</li>
</ul>



Keysight Technologies In (KEYS US) and Spirent Communications (SPT LN) have agreed a recommended 201.5p/share cash acquisition via Scheme of Arrangement, an increase of 26.5p (15.1%) relative to Viavi Solutions (VIAV US)'s Offer.
Spirent, with some scarcity value, should be able to improve its cyclicality as part of Keysight. A counteroffer from Viavi looks unlikely unless Silver Lake significantly increases its stake.
Gross spread is 1.99%. Using Keysight's forecast s about completion, at best, estimated annual return would be 3.51% while at worst, 1.88%. This suggests there may be better opportunities elsewhere.


Keysight/Spirent: Recommended Competing Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viavi-solutions-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15310:1" rel="noopener">Viavi Solutions (VIAV US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spirent-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22160:1" rel="noopener">Spirent Communications (SPT LN)</a> have agreed a cash acquisition via Scheme at 175p (61% premium, 2.5x EV/Fwd Revenue) with just 0.23% irrevocable undertakings. </li>
<li>The opportunity seems good enough so that Viavi (BB) will stretch even more its balance sheet, although Silver Lake is providing 1/3rd of the funds needed.</li>
<li>Gross spread is +0.11%. I believe that shareholders are holding for a sweetening; quite possibly this is a target for activists too. Risk/return seems attractive. Long.</li>
</ul>



Viavi Solutions (VIAV US) and Spirent Communications (SPT LN) have agreed a cash acquisition via Scheme at 175p (61% premium, 2.5x EV/Fwd Revenue) with just 0.23% irrevocable undertakings. 
The opportunity seems good enough so that Viavi (BB) will stretch even more its balance sheet, although Silver Lake is providing 1/3rd of the funds needed.
Gross spread is +0.11%. I believe that shareholders are holding for a sweetening; quite possibly this is a target for activists too. Risk/return seems attractive. Long.


Viavi/Spirent: Management Throw in the Towel but Shareholders Likely to Hold

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Murakami to tender stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>? Maybe the "double arb": i.e. short on swap, long on cash, will tender the cash, remain short the back end.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> rejected (for now) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a>'s bid based on regulatory concerns.  Hanwha reckons these should not be an issue.</li>
<li>If you can tolerate owning the mobile biz, buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> on dips. If not, avoid Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank short-term; buy Rakuten Bank on larger dips.</li>
</ul>


Murakami to tender stake in JSR Corp (4185 JP)? Maybe the "double arb": i.e. short on swap, long on cash, will tender the cash, remain short the back end.

Austal Ltd (ASB AU) rejected (for now) Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)'s bid based on regulatory concerns.  Hanwha reckons these should not be an issue.
If you can tolerate owning the mobile biz, buy Rakuten (4755 JP) on dips. If not, avoid Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank short-term; buy Rakuten Bank on larger dips.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> places out 1% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.</li>
<li>The spreads for  both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) </a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) places out 1% of Oriental Land (4661 JP), but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.

New World Development (17 HK) popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.
The spreads for  both Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)  and Azure Minerals (AZS AU) are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UK Fund exposure in Softcat PLC has reached new highs.  The percentage of UK funds invested in Softcat now stands at a record 17.3% with average holding weights of 0.21%</li>
<li>Softcat PLC moves to the 5th most widely held Technology stock in the UK, sharing similar ownership characteristics to Spirent Communications, Halma PLC and Oxford Instruments.</li>
<li>With Softcat approaching the boundaries of FTSE 100 inclusion, it’s not hard to envisage investment levels moving higher from here.</li>
</ul>


UK Fund exposure in Softcat PLC has reached new highs.  The percentage of UK funds invested in Softcat now stands at a record 17.3% with average holding weights of 0.21%
Softcat PLC moves to the 5th most widely held Technology stock in the UK, sharing similar ownership characteristics to Spirent Communications, Halma PLC and Oxford Instruments.
With Softcat approaching the boundaries of FTSE 100 inclusion, it’s not hard to envisage investment levels moving higher from here.


Softcat PLC: Record Overweight as UK Managers Buy In

United Kingdom

Spirent Communications plc provides electronic solutions for the technology industry, including businesses in the telecommunications and medical sectors. The Group specializes in telecommunications testing systems, including computer software and hardware systems, cable management systems, and transmitters. Spirent operates in the Americas, Europe and the Asia Pacific region.

Spirent Communications (SPT LN)

Keysight/Spirent: Recommended Competing Offer

Keysight to acquire Spirent for 201.5p/share. Viavi unlikely to counteroffer unless Silver Lake increases stake. Gross spread is 1.99%, estimated...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Viavi/Spirent: Management Throw in the Towel but Shareholders Likely to Hold

Viavi Solutions and Spirent Communications agree to cash acquisition at 175p with just 0.23% irrevocable undertakings, with Silver Lake's help....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Softcat PLC: Record Overweight as UK Managers Buy In

UK active long-only fund exposure in Softcat PLC has hit record highs as it approaches the boundaries of FTSE 100 inclusion.

Steven Holden

Keysight/Spirent: Recommended Competing Offer

​Keysight to acquire Spirent for 201.5p/share. Viavi unlikely to counteroffer unless Silver Lake increases stake. Gross spread is 1.99%, estimated...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Viavi/Spirent: Management Throw in the Towel but Shareholders Likely to Hold

​Viavi Solutions and Spirent Communications agree to cash acquisition at 175p with just 0.23% irrevocable undertakings, with Silver Lake's help....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Softcat PLC: Record Overweight as UK Managers Buy In

UK active long-only fund exposure in Softcat PLC has hit record highs as it approaches the boundaries of FTSE 100 inclusion.

Steven Holden

Keysight to acquire Spirent for 201.5p/share. Viavi unlikely to counteroffer unless Silver Lake increases stake. Gross spread is 1.99%, estimated...

Viavi Solutions and Spirent Communications agree to cash acquisition at 175p with just 0.23% irrevocable undertakings, with Silver Lake's help....