Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

Frontier Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Frontier Airlines, having suffered a highly challenged 2023, is set to see a significant inflection point for pricing and margins in 2Q24.</li>
<li>Management aims to deliver 3-6% PBT margins in 2024 building to 10-14% in 2025, representing a reversion to pre-pandemic levels. Read across for LCCs globally.</li>
<li>We now expect a small positive FCF in 2024, building to &gt;$200m in 2025, which should help inspire confidence in the ULCC's ability to thrive with higher costs.</li>
</ul>


Frontier Airlines, having suffered a highly challenged 2023, is set to see a significant inflection point for pricing and margins in 2Q24.
Management aims to deliver 3-6% PBT margins in 2024 building to 10-14% in 2025, representing a reversion to pre-pandemic levels. Read across for LCCs globally.
We now expect a small positive FCF in 2024, building to &gt;$200m in 2025, which should help inspire confidence in the ULCC's ability to thrive with higher costs.


Frontier Airlines - 2024 Momentum Buys Time to Deliver on 2025 Targets

<ul>
<li>Coverage launch on Frontier Airlines, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines following the rejection of the JetBlue/Spirit deal by the US.</li>
<li>High leverage and above-sector cost inflation put each carrier in a difficult competitive position, driving the need for significant structural earnings improvements to achieve financial sustainability</li>
<li>We are 10% above consensus 2024 EBITDAR for Frontier, narrowly above for JetBlue but 17% below consensus for Spirit.</li>
</ul>


Coverage launch on Frontier Airlines, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines following the rejection of the JetBlue/Spirit deal by the US.
High leverage and above-sector cost inflation put each carrier in a difficult competitive position, driving the need for significant structural earnings improvements to achieve financial sustainability
We are 10% above consensus 2024 EBITDAR for Frontier, narrowly above for JetBlue but 17% below consensus for Spirit.


US Airlines - Second Tier Strives for Financial Sustainability

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cirrus-aircraft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39858:1" rel="noopener">Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US)</a> is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO.</li>
<li>Cirrus Aircraft designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium aircrafts. Its two aircraft product lines, the SR2X Series and the Vision Jet, are currently certified and validated in over 60 countries.</li>
<li>We had covered the company’s performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.</li>
</ul>



Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO.
Cirrus Aircraft designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium aircrafts. Its two aircraft product lines, the SR2X Series and the Vision Jet, are currently certified and validated in over 60 countries.
We had covered the company’s performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.


Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Increased Customer Demand Continues to Drive Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cirrus-aircraft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39858:1" rel="noopener">Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US)</a> is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. </li>
<li>Cirrus Aircraft designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium aircrafts. Its two aircraft product lines, the SR2X Series and the Vision Jet, are currently certified and validated in over 60 countries.</li>
<li>CA has managed to grow its profitability steadily over the track record period. However, the firm is subjected to heightened regulatory risks as US and China tensions rise.</li>
</ul>



Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. 
Cirrus Aircraft designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium aircrafts. Its two aircraft product lines, the SR2X Series and the Vision Jet, are currently certified and validated in over 60 countries.
CA has managed to grow its profitability steadily over the track record period. However, the firm is subjected to heightened regulatory risks as US and China tensions rise.


Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO - Has Grown Steadily but Faces Prominent Regulatory Risks

Skymark Airlines / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skymark-airlines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20430:1" rel="noopener">Skymark Airlines (9204 JP)</a> raised US$242m in its Japan IPO. The shares began to trade on 14th Dec 2022, its six-month lockup will expire on 11th Jun 2023.</li>
<li>Skymark Airlines (SA) is a Japanese low-cost airline, being the third largest domestic airline  according to the company. Unlike major airlines and other low-cost carriers, Skymark operates only domestic flights.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Skymark Airlines (9204 JP) raised US$242m in its Japan IPO. The shares began to trade on 14th Dec 2022, its six-month lockup will expire on 11th Jun 2023.
Skymark Airlines (SA) is a Japanese low-cost airline, being the third largest domestic airline  according to the company. Unlike major airlines and other low-cost carriers, Skymark operates only domestic flights.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Skymark Airlines Lockup Expiry - Still Doesn’t Seem Cheap with 50% of the Shares Being Unlocked

United States

Spirit Airlines Inc. is a low-fare airline based in Miramar, Florida. The Airline provides low-cost travel opportunities principally to and from South Florida, the Caribbean and Latin America. Spirit Airlines basic service combines with a range of optional services for additional fees, targets price sensitive leisure travelers and travelers visiting friends and relatives.

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Spirit Airlines (SAVE US)

Frontier Airlines - 2024 Momentum Buys Time to Deliver on 2025 Targets

The US ULCC sector has struggled through 2023, but we highlight that Frontier Airlines can demonstrate it is possible to recover margins and...

Neil Glynn

US Airlines - Second Tier Strives for Financial Sustainability

Deep dive on the quest for financial sustainability of Frontier Airlines, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines, each with a deteriorated competitive...

Neil Glynn

Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Increased Customer Demand Continues to Drive Growth

Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. We had covered the company’s performance in our earlier...

Ethan Aw

Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO - Has Grown Steadily but Faces Prominent Regulatory Risks

Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. CA has grown its profitability steadily over the track...

Ethan Aw

Skymark Airlines Lockup Expiry - Still Doesn’t Seem Cheap with 50% of the Shares Being Unlocked

Skymark Airlines (9204 JP) raised US$242m in its Japan IPO. The shares began to trade on 14th Dec 2022, its six-month lockup will expire on 11th...

Ethan Aw

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