Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> selling its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> shares was expected. The beginning of an open-ended share repurchase programme of Prosus and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> shares was a welcome surprise.</li>
<li>Dye &amp; Durham has reduced its Offer price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> to $4.30/share, down from $5.50/share. It still may get board support.</li>
<li>A 40-45% discount is about the narrowest <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> should get to. For that, there is probably 15-20% upside. But like all holdco trades, trade the range.</li>
</ul>



Prosus (PRX NA) selling its JD.com (9618 HK) shares was expected. The beginning of an open-ended share repurchase programme of Prosus and Naspers (NPN SJ) shares was a welcome surprise.
Dye &amp; Durham has reduced its Offer price for Link Administration (LNK AU) to $4.30/share, down from $5.50/share. It still may get board support.
A 40-45% discount is about the narrowest Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) should get to. For that, there is probably 15-20% upside. But like all holdco trades, trade the range.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Prosus/Naspers, Link Admin, Bank of Kyoto, Tassel, Toshiba

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

<ul>
<li>Frontier Airlines (ULCC US)'s improved terms for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spirit-airlines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3389:1" rel="noopener">Spirit Airlines (SAVE US)</a>  still falls well short of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jetblue-airways-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1516:1" rel="noopener">Jetblue Airways (JBLU US)</a> offer</li>
<li>ULCC's enhanced downside protection matching JBLU's reverse termination fee and bettering its prepayment proposal is the key swing factor where the regulatory path to approval is challenging for either transaction</li>
<li>Given its vigorous pursuit of SAVE so far, we expect JBLU will quickly respond with another counter offer in order to regain the initiative which should keep arbs interested </li>
</ul>


Frontier Airlines (ULCC US)'s improved terms for Spirit Airlines (SAVE US)  still falls well short of the Jetblue Airways (JBLU US) offer
ULCC's enhanced downside protection matching JBLU's reverse termination fee and bettering its prepayment proposal is the key swing factor where the regulatory path to approval is challenging for either transaction
Given its vigorous pursuit of SAVE so far, we expect JBLU will quickly respond with another counter offer in order to regain the initiative which should keep arbs interested 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jetblue-airways-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1516:1" rel="noopener">Jetblue Airways (JBLU US)</a> is going all out to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spirit-airlines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3389:1" rel="noopener">Spirit Airlines (SAVE US)</a> with an increased $33.5/share cash offer, 68% above Frontier Airlines (UCLL US) agreed bid worth $19.99</li>
<li>Antitrust risk is a substantial obstacle to both transactional options available to SAVE, but JBLU's stronger commitment to remedial solutions should be enough to make SAVE board reconsider its position</li>
<li>Deal momentum now seems to be moving in favor of JBLU's vigorous pursuit of SAVE which is starting to make the target's risk-reward profile look compelling </li>
</ul>



Jetblue Airways (JBLU US) is going all out to acquire Spirit Airlines (SAVE US) with an increased $33.5/share cash offer, 68% above Frontier Airlines (UCLL US) agreed bid worth $19.99
Antitrust risk is a substantial obstacle to both transactional options available to SAVE, but JBLU's stronger commitment to remedial solutions should be enough to make SAVE board reconsider its position
Deal momentum now seems to be moving in favor of JBLU's vigorous pursuit of SAVE which is starting to make the target's risk-reward profile look compelling 


MergerTalk: The Bidding War For Spirit Airlines

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

As the S&amp;P 500 pulls back to logical support at 3870, our weight-of-the-evidence approach continues to support our overall bullish outlook. While the positives heavily outweigh the negatives, the rising 10-year Treasury yield is threatening to become a headwind. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Transportation.

As the S&amp;P 500 pulls back to logical support at 3870, our weight-of-the-evidence approach continues to support our overall bullish outlook. While the positives heavily outweigh the negatives, the rising 10-year Treasury yield is threatening to become a headwind. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Transportation.

S&P 500 Testing 3870 Support; 10-Year Yield In Focus

We remain skeptical of the market's upside potential, as we are not sure if anything actually changed in Fed policy, or as a result of the U.S./China trade ceasefire, which has seemingly raised more questions than answers. With that said, 2,817 remains the key resistance level in focus on the S&amp;P 500. In today’s report we highlight attractive opportunities within Airlines, and Home Health Care Services.

We remain skeptical of the market's upside potential, as we are not sure if anything actually changed in Fed policy, or as a result of the U.S./China trade ceasefire, which has seemingly raised more questions than answers. With that said, 2,817 remains the key resistance level in focus on the S&amp;P 500. In today’s report we highlight attractive opportunities within Airlines, and Home Health Care Services.

U.S. Equity Strategy: S&P 500 Fails at Resistance

United States

Spirit Airlines Inc. is a low-fare airline based in Miramar, Florida. The Airline provides low-cost travel opportunities principally to and from South Florida, the Caribbean and Latin America. Spirit Airlines basic service combines with a range of optional services for additional fees, targets price sensitive leisure travelers and travelers visiting friends and relatives.

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Spirit Airlines (SAVE US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Prosus/Naspers, Link Admin, Bank of Kyoto, Tassel, Toshiba

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

MergerTalk: Over To You, JetBlue!

Given its vigorous pursuit of Spirit Airlines so far, we expect Jetblue will quickly respond to Frontier's improved terms in an effort to regain...

Robert Sassoon

MergerTalk: The Bidding War For Spirit Airlines

Jetblue's vigorous pursuit of Spirit Airlines may pay off making the target's risk-reward look compelling to Spirit Shareholders and arbitrageurs

Robert Sassoon

S&P 500 Testing 3870 Support; 10-Year Yield In Focus

As the S&P 500 pulls back to logical support at 3870. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Transportation.

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: S&P 500 Fails at Resistance

We remain skeptical of the market's upside potential, as we are not sure if anything actually changed in Fed policy, or as a result of the...

Vermilion Research

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