Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Spotify Technology S.A., a leading global audio streaming service, reported a strong conclusion to its fiscal year 2024, highlighted by record metrics across multiple fronts.</li><li>The company achieved its highest-ever fourth-quarter addition of Monthly Active Users (MAUs) and a substantial increase in premium subscribers, reflecting positively on its growth strategies and customer engagement efforts.</li><li>Positives from the performance include the notable growth in Spotify’s MAUs, adding 35 million users to reach 675 million, alongside 11 million new subscribers bringing the total to 263 million.</li></ul>

Spotify Technology S.A., a leading global audio streaming service, reported a strong conclusion to its fiscal year 2024, highlighted by record metrics across multiple fronts.The company achieved its highest-ever fourth-quarter addition of Monthly Active Users (MAUs) and a substantial increase in premium subscribers, reflecting positively on its growth strategies and customer engagement efforts.Positives from the performance include the notable growth in Spotify’s MAUs, adding 35 million users to reach 675 million, alongside 11 million new subscribers bringing the total to 263 million.

Spotify’s First Truly Profitable Year Was Great! But Will It Be EVEN MORE Profitable With The Expansion of Subscription Tiers & Monetization Of Video Content?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Review of the conventional arguments (Bloomberg article): the timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue.</li>
<li>Review of history of Tech Bubbles (Krugman): not clear if AI is a bubble, it could keep going for years, but if it bursts it will be worse than 1999-2003.</li>
<li>Best AI comp is Cloud Computing. Both enable new data analytics, new applications. Both are platforms. US Cloud Computing revenues increased 25x in 10 years (2015 to 2024).</li>
</ul>


Review of the conventional arguments (Bloomberg article): the timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue.
Review of history of Tech Bubbles (Krugman): not clear if AI is a bubble, it could keep going for years, but if it bursts it will be worse than 1999-2003.
Best AI comp is Cloud Computing. Both enable new data analytics, new applications. Both are platforms. US Cloud Computing revenues increased 25x in 10 years (2015 to 2024).


What Are the Arguments in Favor and Against an AI Bubble?

Independent in-depth research from Finimize, Finimize

Finimize Research

Independent in-depth research from Finimize

Finimize

Finimize is the #1 information platform for modern investors. We empower people to become smarter investors with bitesize insights from world-class analysts. 1 million+ strong community, 250 partners.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The US economy’s resilience hasn’t come from the many – it’s come from the top 10% as the “wealth effect” from rising asset prices has boosted spending.</li>
<li>But it works in reverse too.  Since the richest make up nearly half of America’s consumer spending, that could lead to a serious economic fallout.</li>
<li>It’s worth considering protecting your portfolio. I’ve pulled together one list of companies that should do well and another that could suffer from the change in climate.</li>
</ul>


The US economy’s resilience hasn’t come from the many – it’s come from the top 10% as the “wealth effect” from rising asset prices has boosted spending.
But it works in reverse too.  Since the richest make up nearly half of America’s consumer spending, that could lead to a serious economic fallout.
It’s worth considering protecting your portfolio. I’ve pulled together one list of companies that should do well and another that could suffer from the change in climate.


A Defensive Portfolio Prepared For The Wealth Effect’s Reversal

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Tencent has been busy distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years, with JD.com’s distribution announced in 2021 and Meituan’s in 2022.</li>
<li>In our earlier note in 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-investee-selldown-the-us-120bn-global-overhang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81153" rel="noopener">Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang</a>, we had looked at its overall investment portfolio.</li>
<li>With two of its large investments spun-out, we now re-look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how. </li>
</ul>


Tencent has been busy distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years, with JD.com’s distribution announced in 2021 and Meituan’s in 2022.
In our earlier note in 2022, Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang, we had looked at its overall investment portfolio.
With two of its large investments spun-out, we now re-look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how. 


Tencent Investee Selldown - JD.com Done, Meituan Done, Two More Still Left

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Regional rotation places DM Europe as clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds.</li>
<li>Seventy-Five percent of funds are overweight UK stocks, with 69.6% overweight France and 70.2% overweight the Netherlands</li>
<li>Novo Nordisk, ASML, Schneider Electric, and AstraZeneca remain key holdings, while a resurgence from European banks and select names like Spotify and LSEG is also starting to stand out.</li>
</ul>


Regional rotation places DM Europe as clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds.
Seventy-Five percent of funds are overweight UK stocks, with 69.6% overweight France and 70.2% overweight the Netherlands
Novo Nordisk, ASML, Schneider Electric, and AstraZeneca remain key holdings, while a resurgence from European banks and select names like Spotify and LSEG is also starting to stand out.


Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

Luxembourg

Spotify Technology S.A. provides music streaming services. The Company offers commercial free music and ad-supported services to subscribers. Spotify Technology serves clients worldwide.

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Spotify (SPOT US)

Spotify’s First Truly Profitable Year Was Great! But Will It Be EVEN MORE Profitable With The Expansion of Subscription Tiers & Monetization Of Video Content?

Spotify Technology S.A., a leading global audio streaming service, reported a strong conclusion to its fiscal year 2024, highlighted by record...

Baptista Research

What Are the Arguments in Favor and Against an AI Bubble?

Timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue, AI could be a bubble worse than 1999-2003, Cloud Computing is the best AI comp with...

Nicolas Baratte

A Defensive Portfolio Prepared For The Wealth Effect’s Reversal

The top 10% account for around 50% of consumer spending in the US. This insight looks at the sectors and companies that could win and lose from the...

Finimize Research

Tencent Investee Selldown - JD.com Done, Meituan Done, Two More Still Left

Tencent has been distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years. In this note, we look at which of its remaining investee...

Sumeet Singh

Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

Regional rotation places Developed Europe as a clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds, with over 90% of funds positioned ahead...

Steven Holden

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Spotify’s First Truly Profitable Year Was Great! But Will It Be EVEN MORE Profitable With The Expansion of Subscription Tiers & Monetization Of Video Content?

Spotify Technology S.A., a leading global audio streaming service, reported a strong conclusion to its fiscal year 2024, highlighted by record...

Baptista Research

What Are the Arguments in Favor and Against an AI Bubble?

​Timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue, AI could be a bubble worse than 1999-2003, Cloud Computing is the best AI comp with...

Nicolas Baratte

A Defensive Portfolio Prepared For The Wealth Effect’s Reversal

The top 10% account for around 50% of consumer spending in the US. This insight looks at the sectors and companies that could win and lose from the...

Finimize Research

Tencent Investee Selldown - JD.com Done, Meituan Done, Two More Still Left

Tencent has been distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years. In this note, we look at which of its remaining investee...

Sumeet Singh

Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

Regional rotation places Developed Europe as a clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds, with over 90% of funds positioned ahead...

Steven Holden

Timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue, AI could be a bubble worse than 1999-2003, Cloud Computing is the best AI comp with...