Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Headline developments are all up in the air this week, starting with United Airlines (UAL) who have signed an agreement with Boom Supersonic (private) to add 15 of their $200m jets to the fleet, with the option of adding an additional 35, after certain safety, sustainability and operating metrics are met.</p>

Headline developments are all up in the air this week, starting with United Airlines (UAL) who have signed an agreement with Boom Supersonic (private) to add 15 of their $200m jets to the fleet, with the option of adding an additional 35, after certain safety, sustainability and operating metrics are met.

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<p>This is a follow-up to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/esg-and-bitcoin-the-truth-lies-somewhere-between-benign-and-boiling-off-oceans" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52134" rel="noopener">ESG and Bitcoin: The Truth Lies Somewhere Between Benign and Boiling Off Oceans</a>, in which I discussed the ongoing cryptocurrency/ESG debate, and explained the reasoning behind my slightly positive long-term opinion of the issue (near-term negative, however).</p><p>Essentially, it boiled down to the <em>balance</em> of Environmental, Social, and Governance issues. Proof-of-Work cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin) are an Environmental nightmare. However, there is reason for optimism (e.g., Ethereum 2.0), and some long-term Social issues are <em>major</em> positives.</p><p>Nevertheless, the raging firestorm over cryptocurrency's Environmental footprint will be foremost on the minds of many ESG-minded investors. They will want avoid crypto at all costs. That is easy regarding direct exposure – just don't buy Bitcoin, Coinbase, or any other crypto pure-plays.</p><p>Indirect cryptocurrency exposure is a different story altogether. As cryptocurrencies become more mainstream, the potential for indirect exposure increases – in probability, degree, and number of possible vectors. Some are hard to miss (e.g., Tesla), but others are much harder to identify.</p><p>Ergo, this Insight. It covers the first of several emerging areas of potential indirect crypto exposure, specifically the growing cadre of listed companies putting crypto on the books; holding Bitcoins in treasuries for a variety of reasons, but primarily as a supposed super-hedge against inflation.</p><p>It is written for the never-Bitcoin environmentalist investor, but with a little imagination any pro-Bitcoin investor can just flip its messages upside down. After all, whether indirect cryptocurrency exposure is an ESG risk or an ESG opportunity is entirely up to you to decide, for yourself.</p>

This is a follow-up to ESG and Bitcoin: The Truth Lies Somewhere Between Benign and Boiling Off Oceans, in which I discussed the ongoing cryptocurrency/ESG debate, and explained the reasoning behind my slightly positive long-term opinion of the issue (near-term negative, however).Essentially, it boiled down to the balance of Environmental, Social, and Governance issues. Proof-of-Work cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin) are an Environmental nightmare. However, there is reason for optimism (e.g., Ethereum 2.0), and some long-term Social issues are major positives.Nevertheless, the raging firestorm over cryptocurrency's Environmental footprint will be foremost on the minds of many ESG-minded investors. They will want avoid crypto at all costs. That is easy regarding direct exposure – just don't buy Bitcoin, Coinbase, or any other crypto pure-plays.Indirect cryptocurrency exposure is a different story altogether. As cryptocurrencies become more mainstream, the potential for indirect exposure increases – in probability, degree, and number of possible vectors. Some are hard to miss (e.g., Tesla), but others are much harder to identify.Ergo, this Insight. It covers the first of several emerging areas of potential indirect crypto exposure, specifically the growing cadre of listed companies putting crypto on the books; holding Bitcoins in treasuries for a variety of reasons, but primarily as a supposed super-hedge against inflation.It is written for the never-Bitcoin environmentalist investor, but with a little imagination any pro-Bitcoin investor can just flip its messages upside down. After all, whether indirect cryptocurrency exposure is an ESG risk or an ESG opportunity is entirely up to you to decide, for yourself.

Bitcoin on Balance Sheets: Indirect Crypto Exposure Considerations for Crypto-Leery ESG Investors

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>At the macro-level, we believe that the “K-shaped” nature of consumer credit in the US economy may put greater pressure on delinquency, including the BNPL segment  </li>
<li>We reinstate the sell rating on Affirm shares, after its strong performance and stretched valuation, especially in terms of market cap to TPV as well as forward EV/EBITDA multiple</li>
<li>We downgrade Klarna to a neutral from buy, for its share re-rating which led to narrowing the valuation gap with BNPL- exposed Block</li>
</ul>


At the macro-level, we believe that the “K-shaped” nature of consumer credit in the US economy may put greater pressure on delinquency, including the BNPL segment  
We reinstate the sell rating on Affirm shares, after its strong performance and stretched valuation, especially in terms of market cap to TPV as well as forward EV/EBITDA multiple
We downgrade Klarna to a neutral from buy, for its share re-rating which led to narrowing the valuation gap with BNPL- exposed Block


BNPL Companies – Locking in Gains on Klarna (KLAR US), Placing a Sell on Affirm (AFRM US)

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<p>Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer and corporate preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most equipped to benefit from them.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Key Point: Secular Accelerator beneficiaries are different than the “work from home” beneficiaries, however secular accelerator beneficiaries may also be work from home beneficiaries.</strong></p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer and corporate preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most equipped to benefit from them. Key Point: Secular Accelerator beneficiaries are different than the “work from home” beneficiaries, however secular accelerator beneficiaries may also be work from home beneficiaries.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator III: Fintech / Software Edition

<div><p>Some datapoints that caught our eye last week in TMT.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

Some datapoints that caught our eye last week in TMT.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Beyond the Virus: 3 Things from TMT Land that Stood Out Week of 4/​10/​​​​​2020

United States

Block, Inc. operates as a financial services and digital payments company. The Company develops a payments platform aimed at small and medium businesses that allows them to accept credit card payments and use tablet computers as payment registers for a point-of-sale system. Block also provides financial and marketing services.

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Block (XYZ US)

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #35

Headline developments are all up in the air this week, starting with United Airlines (UAL) who have signed an agreement with Boom Supersonic

Granite Bay Capital

Bitcoin on Balance Sheets: Indirect Crypto Exposure Considerations for Crypto-Leery ESG Investors

Companies are increasingly embracing cryptocurrencies as a corporate treasury management strategy. This looks at some representative companies with...

Kyle Rudden

BNPL Companies – Locking in Gains on Klarna (KLAR US), Placing a Sell on Affirm (AFRM US)

The "K-shaped" US consumer credit market is seeing rising NPL stress leading to caution on BNPL companies; we place a sell rating on Affirm due to...

Victor Galliano

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator III: Fintech / Software Edition

Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer and corporate preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most...

Aaron Gabin

Beyond the Virus: 3 Things from TMT Land that Stood Out Week of 4/10/2020

Some datapoints that caught our eye last week in TMT.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer...

Aaron Gabin

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #35

Headline developments are all up in the air this week, starting with United Airlines (UAL) who have signed an agreement with Boom Supersonic

Granite Bay Capital

Bitcoin on Balance Sheets: Indirect Crypto Exposure Considerations for Crypto-Leery ESG Investors

Companies are increasingly embracing cryptocurrencies as a corporate treasury management strategy. This looks at some representative companies with...

Kyle Rudden

BNPL Companies – Locking in Gains on Klarna (KLAR US), Placing a Sell on Affirm (AFRM US)

The "K-shaped" ​US consumer credit market is seeing rising NPL stress leading to caution on BNPL companies; we place a sell rating on Affirm due to...

Victor Galliano

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator III: Fintech / Software Edition

Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer and corporate preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most...

Aaron Gabin

Beyond the Virus: 3 Things from TMT Land that Stood Out Week of 4/​10/​​​​​2020

Some datapoints that caught our eye last week in TMT.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer...

Aaron Gabin

The "K-shaped" US consumer credit market is seeing rising NPL stress leading to caution on BNPL companies; we place a sell rating on Affirm due to...

Beyond the Virus: 3 Things from TMT Land that Stood Out Week of 4/10/2020