Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this Insight, we share our channel inputs that might be relevant for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srf-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3601:1" rel="noopener">SRF Ltd (SRF IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/navin-fluorine-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3511:1" rel="noopener">Navin Fluorine International (NFIL IN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gujarat-fluorochemicals-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44112:1" rel="noopener">Gujarat Fluorochemicals (FLUOROCH IN)</a>.</li>
<li>Weak demand and operational conditions in China have forced companies to focus on clearing inventory rather than maintaining prices, which has negatively impacted India's export-oriented companies.</li>
<li>Industry-Wide product cycles, especially in Specialty Chemicals, are shortening, which is a potential threat to leaders like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srf-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3601:1" rel="noopener">SRF Ltd (SRF IN)</a>.</li>
</ul>


In this Insight, we share our channel inputs that might be relevant for SRF Ltd (SRF IN), Navin Fluorine International (NFIL IN), and Gujarat Fluorochemicals (FLUOROCH IN).
Weak demand and operational conditions in China have forced companies to focus on clearing inventory rather than maintaining prices, which has negatively impacted India's export-oriented companies.
Industry-Wide product cycles, especially in Specialty Chemicals, are shortening, which is a potential threat to leaders like SRF Ltd (SRF IN).


Specialty Chemicals Facing Product Cycle Shortening - A Threat to SRF (SRF IN)?

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kama-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10170:1" rel="noopener">Kama Holdings (KHL IN)</a>is available at 80% discount to its NAV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kama-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10170:1" rel="noopener">Kama Holdings (KHL IN)</a> is Holding company of SRF Ltd (SRF IN), which has tailwind across segments.</li>
<li>If the discount were to narrow from 81% to 56%, the price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kama-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10170:1" rel="noopener">Kama Holdings (KHL IN)</a> could potentially double, assuming all other factors remain constant.</li>
</ul>



Kama Holdings (KHL IN)is available at 80% discount to its NAV.

Kama Holdings (KHL IN) is Holding company of SRF Ltd (SRF IN), which has tailwind across segments.
If the discount were to narrow from 81% to 56%, the price of Kama Holdings (KHL IN) could potentially double, assuming all other factors remain constant.


The Beat Ideas: Kama Holdings- A Growing Player at Deep Discount

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

CG Power and Industrial Solutions / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-December.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could have passive outflows in August.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could have passive outflows in August.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Global chemical inventory levels are at decade lows, and product prices have begun stabilizing across key segments, signaling the early stages of a demand-led recovery. </li>
<li>The capex cycle is largely behind us, setting the stage for strong free cash flow generation even as select sub-segments like amines, fluorine, and pyridines see pricing and volume tailwinds. 
</li>
<li>We adopt a selective bullish view, with momentum expected in companies that have strategically aligned capex, strong product-market fit, and established global customer relationships. 
</li>
</ul>



Global chemical inventory levels are at decade lows, and product prices have begun stabilizing across key segments, signaling the early stages of a demand-led recovery. 
The capex cycle is largely behind us, setting the stage for strong free cash flow generation even as select sub-segments like amines, fluorine, and pyridines see pricing and volume tailwinds. 

We adopt a selective bullish view, with momentum expected in companies that have strategically aligned capex, strong product-market fit, and established global customer relationships. 



Thematic Report on What’s Different About the Chemical Recovery This Time?

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.</li>
</ul>


There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

India

SRF Limited is a multi-business Indian multinational engaging in the manufacture of chemical based industrial intermediates. The Company has a business portfolio that encompasses technical textiles, chemicals, packaging films and engineering plastics.

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SRF Ltd (SRF IN)

Specialty Chemicals Facing Product Cycle Shortening - A Threat to SRF (SRF IN)?

Challenges faced by Indian export-oriented companies like SRF Ltd and Navin Fluorine International due to weak demand in China and shortening...

Pranav Bhavsar

The Beat Ideas: Kama Holdings- A Growing Player at Deep Discount

An Interesting Deep Value Holding Company: Kama Holdings trades at an 80% discount to its NAV, with potential for price to double if discount...

Sudarshan Bhandari

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 2...

Brian Freitas

Thematic Report on What’s Different About the Chemical Recovery This Time?

Global chemical inventory levels are at decade lows, signaling the early stages of a demand-led recovery. Selective bullish view on companies with...

Sudarshan Bhandari

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

The Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalances at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the adds have outperformed the deletes (but only marginally)....

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Specialty Chemicals Facing Product Cycle Shortening - A Threat to SRF (SRF IN)?

Challenges faced by Indian export-oriented companies like SRF Ltd and Navin Fluorine International due to weak demand in China and shortening...

Pranav Bhavsar

The Beat Ideas: Kama Holdings- A Growing Player at Deep Discount

An Interesting Deep Value Holding Company: ​Kama Holdings trades at an 80% discount to its NAV, with potential for price to double if discount...

Sudarshan Bhandari

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 2...

Brian Freitas

Thematic Report on What’s Different About the Chemical Recovery This Time?

​Global chemical inventory levels are at decade lows, signaling the early stages of a demand-led recovery. Selective bullish view on companies with...

Sudarshan Bhandari

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

The Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalances at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the adds have outperformed the deletes (but only marginally)....

Brian Freitas

An Interesting Deep Value Holding Company: Kama Holdings trades at an 80% discount to its NAV, with potential for price to double if discount...

Global chemical inventory levels are at decade lows, signaling the early stages of a demand-led recovery. Selective bullish view on companies with...