Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Sri Trang Agro Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>STA reported 1Q26 core profit of around Bt415mn (-44% YoY, +27% QoQ), beating consensus estimate by roughly 25%.</li><li>1Q26 profit recovered; 2Q26E outlook remains positive.</li><li>Gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 9.6%, from 9.1% in 1Q25 and 6.4% in 4Q25, reflecting stronger natural rubber GPM at 8.7% (vs. 8.0% in 1Q25 and 5.7% in 4Q25) and glove GPM at 10.4% (vs. 13.0% in 1Q25 and 7.2% in 4Q25).</li></ul>

STA reported 1Q26 core profit of around Bt415mn (-44% YoY, +27% QoQ), beating consensus estimate by roughly 25%.1Q26 profit recovered; 2Q26E outlook remains positive.Gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 9.6%, from 9.1% in 1Q25 and 6.4% in 4Q25, reflecting stronger natural rubber GPM at 8.7% (vs. 8.0% in 1Q25 and 5.7% in 4Q25) and glove GPM at 10.4% (vs. 13.0% in 1Q25 and 7.2% in 4Q25).

SRI TRANG AGRO-INDUSTRY Plc. (STA): 1Q26 Profit Recovered...

Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 / Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 (JNA COMDTY)

<ul>
<li>ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.</li>
<li>SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.</li>
<li>Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.</li>
</ul>


ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.
SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.
Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.


Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ENSO remained broadly neutral during early 2026, although probabilities of El Niño later increased, suggesting weather risk remains more forward-looking than physically visible.</li>
<li>Palm oil appears most exposed, with Malaysia and Indonesia dominating global supply and 2015–2016 El Niño contributing to 13–17% production declines and 20–30% CPO gains.</li>
<li>Natural rubber follows because Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while late-2025 flooding affected 656,000 hectares and reduced supply flexibility.</li>
</ul>


ENSO remained broadly neutral during early 2026, although probabilities of El Niño later increased, suggesting weather risk remains more forward-looking than physically visible.
Palm oil appears most exposed, with Malaysia and Indonesia dominating global supply and 2015–2016 El Niño contributing to 13–17% production declines and 20–30% CPO gains.
Natural rubber follows because Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while late-2025 flooding affected 656,000 hectares and reduced supply flexibility.


El Niño / La Niña: Which ASEAN Commodities Have The Smallest Buffers?

<ul><li>We downgrade to Neutral from Outperform with a new 12M FWD fair value (FV) of Bt15.40, based on a 6.1% required return (16.3x PER), vs. Bt14.70 previously (5.7% required return).</li><li>Improving rubber prices support a 2026E earnings recovery outlook, but this appears largely priced in after a 25% YTD share price gain.</li><li>KTX cuts our 2026–27E core profit forecasts by 7% and 10% to Bt1,391mn and Bt1,836mn, reflecting lower sales volume assumptions for both natural rubber and gloves.</li></ul>

We downgrade to Neutral from Outperform with a new 12M FWD fair value (FV) of Bt15.40, based on a 6.1% required return (16.3x PER), vs. Bt14.70 previously (5.7% required return).Improving rubber prices support a 2026E earnings recovery outlook, but this appears largely priced in after a 25% YTD share price gain.KTX cuts our 2026–27E core profit forecasts by 7% and 10% to Bt1,391mn and Bt1,836mn, reflecting lower sales volume assumptions for both natural rubber and gloves.

SRI TRANG AGRO-INDUSTRY Plc. (STA): 4Q25 Core Profit Signals A Recovery From US Tariff Impacts

<ul><li>STA reported another net loss in 3Q25, pressured by a sharp drop in STR sales amid tax uncertainty.</li><li>Our estimates, rating, and FV are under review.</li><li>We preliminarily expect 4Q25E performance to recover QoQ, driven by a potential rebound in STR demand from restocking ahead of 2026 tire production.</li></ul>

STA reported another net loss in 3Q25, pressured by a sharp drop in STR sales amid tax uncertainty.Our estimates, rating, and FV are under review.We preliminarily expect 4Q25E performance to recover QoQ, driven by a potential rebound in STR demand from restocking ahead of 2026 tire production.

SRI TRANG AGRO-INDUSTRY Plc. (STA): 3Q25 Loss Extended On Weaker Margins

Thailand

Sri Trang Agro-Industry Public Company Limited produces and markets smoked sheet rubber.  The Company sells its products to tire manufacturers as primary market, and exports to Japan, China, Korea, and Taiwan as secondary market.

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Sri Trang Agro Industry (STA TB)

SRI TRANG AGRO-INDUSTRY Plc. (STA): 1Q26 Profit Recovered...

STA reported 1Q26 core profit of around Bt415mn (-44% YoY, +27% QoQ), beating consensus estimate by roughly 25%.1Q26 profit recovered; 2Q26E...

Krungthai XSpring

Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Weather may initiate supply tightening, but lower inventories and downstream demand determine whether tighter rubber conditions become investable.

Duncan Chan

El Niño / La Niña: Which ASEAN Commodities Have The Smallest Buffers?

Weather risk alone is not investable; palm oil and rubber matter because ASEAN supply buffers are thinner and transmission can show up in...

Duncan Chan

SRI TRANG AGRO-INDUSTRY Plc. (STA): 4Q25 Core Profit Signals A Recovery From US Tariff Impacts

We downgrade to Neutral from Outperform with a new 12M FWD fair value (FV) of Bt15.40, based on a 6.1% required return (16.3x PER), vs. Bt14.70...

Krungthai XSpring

SRI TRANG AGRO-INDUSTRY Plc. (STA): 3Q25 Loss Extended On Weaker Margins

STA reported another net loss in 3Q25, pressured by a sharp drop in STR sales amid tax uncertainty. Our estimates, rating, and FV are under review.

Krungthai XSpring

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