Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The combination of the Vegetarian Festival and the school holiday break is anticipated to exert downward pressure on broiler and swine prices in October, with expected declines of around 2-5%, based on the five-year historical trend.</li>
<li>Typically, broiler and swine prices rebound by 5-16% in 1Q of the following year.</li>
<li>For 3Q24E, companies in the meat sector, particularly those focused on swine in Thailand, Vietnam, and China, are expected to see strong YoY and QoQ profit growth, with earnings reports anticipated within the first 15 days of November. </li>
</ul>


The combination of the Vegetarian Festival and the school holiday break is anticipated to exert downward pressure on broiler and swine prices in October, with expected declines of around 2-5%, based on the five-year historical trend.
Typically, broiler and swine prices rebound by 5-16% in 1Q of the following year.
For 3Q24E, companies in the meat sector, particularly those focused on swine in Thailand, Vietnam, and China, are expected to see strong YoY and QoQ profit growth, with earnings reports anticipated within the first 15 days of November. 


Agribusiness and Food and Beverage Sectors - October 4, 2024

<ul><li>In 3Q24E, the earnings of the agribusiness and food sector are expected to recover both YoY and QoQ, particularly for major meat operators with swine businesses in Thailand, Vietnam, and China.</li><li>Their earnings are anticipated to turn around from losses in 3Q23 to profits in 3Q24E, with momentum expected to continue growing QoQ.</li><li>KTX has revised up its earnings projection for TFG but lowered the projection for RBF, as its 3Q24E earnings are expected to decline YoY and QoQ. </li></ul>

In 3Q24E, the earnings of the agribusiness and food sector are expected to recover both YoY and QoQ, particularly for major meat operators with swine businesses in Thailand, Vietnam, and China.Their earnings are anticipated to turn around from losses in 3Q23 to profits in 3Q24E, with momentum expected to continue growing QoQ.KTX has revised up its earnings projection for TFG but lowered the projection for RBF, as its 3Q24E earnings are expected to decline YoY and QoQ. 

Agribusiness and Food and Beverage Sectors - Sep 5, 2024

Equity Bottom-Up

Srinanaporn Marketing Public Company Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

Srinanaporn Marketing Public Company Limited

<ul><li>We maintain a neutral view on SNNP's 2Q24E earnings forecast, with some concerns about the year's earnings outlook if sales fall short of expectations, which could result in 10% downside risk to our 2024E forecast.</li><li>However, the recent decline in the share price has already factored in the sales outlook. Our valuation metrics suggest very limited tactical downside risk.</li><li>The fundamental aspect has been upgraded to a buy due to strong long-term earnings prospects. </li></ul>

We maintain a neutral view on SNNP's 2Q24E earnings forecast, with some concerns about the year's earnings outlook if sales fall short of expectations, which could result in 10% downside risk to our 2024E forecast.However, the recent decline in the share price has already factored in the sales outlook. Our valuation metrics suggest very limited tactical downside risk.The fundamental aspect has been upgraded to a buy due to strong long-term earnings prospects. 

Srinanaporn Marketing - 2Q24E Earnings Expected to Increase 4% YoY and QoQ

<ul><li>The projected outlook for agricultural and food businesses in 2Q24E indicates a notable recovery both YoY and QoQ.</li><li>In particular, major meat operators, including those engaged in the swine business in Vietnam, are anticipated to shift from losses in 2Q23 to profits, with further growth expected from their reported better-than- expected operating results in 1Q24.</li><li>Consequently, we have revised our profit forecasts upward for CPF, TFG and SAPPE. While acknowledging the sector's rebound in operating results, driving up share prices, we maintain a Neutral rating due to stretched valuations, as indicated by the earnings yield method. </li></ul>

The projected outlook for agricultural and food businesses in 2Q24E indicates a notable recovery both YoY and QoQ.In particular, major meat operators, including those engaged in the swine business in Vietnam, are anticipated to shift from losses in 2Q23 to profits, with further growth expected from their reported better-than- expected operating results in 1Q24.Consequently, we have revised our profit forecasts upward for CPF, TFG and SAPPE. While acknowledging the sector's rebound in operating results, driving up share prices, we maintain a Neutral rating due to stretched valuations, as indicated by the earnings yield method. 

Agri & Food: Momentum in 2Q24E Expected to Grow YoY and QoQ

<ul><li>The 1Q24 earnings came out as expected, and we forecast an acceleration in the remainder of the year.</li><li>Therefore, we maintain our projection and our Outperform rating, with a fair value of Bt21.35.</li><li>Our valuation metrics indicate that the stock is attractive based on both the short-term and long-term earnings growth prospects.</li></ul>

The 1Q24 earnings came out as expected, and we forecast an acceleration in the remainder of the year.Therefore, we maintain our projection and our Outperform rating, with a fair value of Bt21.35.Our valuation metrics indicate that the stock is attractive based on both the short-term and long-term earnings growth prospects.

Srinanaporn Marketing - 1Q24 Earnings Grew 2% YoY but Decreased 4% QoQ, as Expected

Thailand

Srinanaporn Marketing Public Company Limited operates as a food manufacturing company. The Company offers snack such as jelly, fruit juice, fish, squid, herb drinks. Srinanaporn Marketing serves customers worldwide.

Srinanaporn Marketing Public Company Limited (SNNP TB)

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Srinanaporn Marketing Public Company Limited (SNNP TB)

Agribusiness and Food and Beverage Sectors - October 4, 2024

The combination of the Vegetarian Festival and the school holiday break is anticipated to exert downward pressure on broiler and swine prices in...

Krungthai XSpring

Agribusiness and Food and Beverage Sectors - Sep 5, 2024

In 3Q24E, the earnings of the agribusiness and food sector are expected to recover both YoY and QoQ, particularly for major meat operators with...

Krungthai XSpring

Srinanaporn Marketing - 2Q24E Earnings Expected to Increase 4% YoY and QoQ

We maintain a neutral view on SNNP's 2Q24E earnings forecast, with some concerns about the year's earnings outlook if sales fall short of expectations

Krungthai XSpring

Agri & Food: Momentum in 2Q24E Expected to Grow YoY and QoQ

In particular, major meat operators, including those engaged in the swine business in Vietnam, are anticipated to shift from losses in 2Q23 to profits

Krungthai XSpring

Srinanaporn Marketing - 1Q24 Earnings Grew 2% YoY but Decreased 4% QoQ, as Expected

The 1Q24 earnings came out as expected, and we forecast an acceleration in the remainder of the year. Therefore, we maintain our projection and our...

Krungthai XSpring

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52-week Range

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