Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Buy call, with a new fair value of Bt46.07. Our valuation metrics suggest strengths in all dimensions, including the long-term growth prospects (with expected EPS growth at a 14% CAGR in 2024-26E), alongside limited tactical downside risks.</li><li>SAWAD’s 1Q24E net profit is expected at Bt1,315mn (+9.5% YoY and +3.8% QoQ).</li><li>Loans are expected to have grown 48.9% YoY from the low base in 1Q23 when the financial statement of Fast Money was not consolidated.</li></ul>

We maintain a Buy call, with a new fair value of Bt46.07. Our valuation metrics suggest strengths in all dimensions, including the long-term growth prospects (with expected EPS growth at a 14% CAGR in 2024-26E), alongside limited tactical downside risks.SAWAD’s 1Q24E net profit is expected at Bt1,315mn (+9.5% YoY and +3.8% QoQ).Loans are expected to have grown 48.9% YoY from the low base in 1Q23 when the financial statement of Fast Money was not consolidated.

Srisawad Corporation -1Q24E Core Profit to Have Grown Slightly YoY and QoQ

<ul><li>We maintain our Buy rating, with a new fair price of Bt46.07, vs. Bt56.43 previously, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 9.4% (vs. 8.0% previously) due to a higher risk-free rate, which is based on the current Thai 10Y bond yield assumption, up by 60 bps.</li><li>Meanwhile, our 2024-25E net profit forecasts have been revised down by 13-18%.</li><li>Our valuation metrics reflect strength in all dimensions, including the long-term profit growth prospects, with projected EPS growth at a 14% CAGR in 2024-26E.</li></ul>

We maintain our Buy rating, with a new fair price of Bt46.07, vs. Bt56.43 previously, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 9.4% (vs. 8.0% previously) due to a higher risk-free rate, which is based on the current Thai 10Y bond yield assumption, up by 60 bps.Meanwhile, our 2024-25E net profit forecasts have been revised down by 13-18%.Our valuation metrics reflect strength in all dimensions, including the long-term profit growth prospects, with projected EPS growth at a 14% CAGR in 2024-26E.

Srisawad Corporation -Attractive Valuation

<ul><li>SAWAD’s 4Q23 net profit of Bt1,216mn was in line with the Bloomberg consensus estimate of Bt1,267mn (+4% YoY, -9% QoQ).</li><li>The YoY earnings growth was driven by the expansion of the loan portfolio, which offset the increases in funding costs and provisions.</li><li>The QoQ decrease in earnings was blamed on the increase in the provision.</li></ul>

SAWAD’s 4Q23 net profit of Bt1,216mn was in line with the Bloomberg consensus estimate of Bt1,267mn (+4% YoY, -9% QoQ).The YoY earnings growth was driven by the expansion of the loan portfolio, which offset the increases in funding costs and provisions.The QoQ decrease in earnings was blamed on the increase in the provision.

Sawad - Earnings in Line with the Market Expectation; ECL Still Increasing

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>There could be three ADDs and three DELs as things stand. There are a couple of names lurking close to the border too.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). 
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
There could be three ADDs and three DELs as things stand. There are a couple of names lurking close to the border too.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes Possible

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in December with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics (KCE TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>. </li>
<li>There is one close change where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL (ITC TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> is unlikely to be deleted while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the SET 50 Index in December with KCE Electronics (KCE TB) replacing Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 
There is one close change where I-TAIL (ITC TB) could replace Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) in the index.

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is unlikely to be deleted while Berli Jucker (BJC TB) fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

Thailand

Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited operates as a consumer finance company. The Company provides personal secured loans, home loans, loans for international labors, and other related financial products. Srisawad offers its products and services to retail clients in Thailand.

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Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)

Srisawad Corporation -1Q24E Core Profit to Have Grown Slightly YoY and QoQ

We maintain a Buy call, with a new fair value of Bt46.07. Our valuation metrics suggest strengths in all dimensions, including the long-term growth...

Krungthai XSpring

Srisawad Corporation -Attractive Valuation

We maintain our Buy rating, with a new fair price of Bt46.07, vs. Bt56.43 previously, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 9.4%...

Krungthai XSpring

Sawad - Earnings in Line with the Market Expectation; ECL Still Increasing

SAWAD’s 4Q23 net profit of Bt1,216mn was in line with the Bloomberg consensus estimate of Bt1,267mn (+4% YoY, -9% QoQ). The YoY earnings growth was...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes Possible

Ngern Tid Lor, I-TAIL, and Bangkok Chain Hospital could be added and Com7, Srisawad Corp , and KCE Electronics could be deleted according to the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

KCE could replace TIDLOR in the SET50 in Dec. ITC is a close add and could replace SAWAD. The impact on the stocks is big given the index is...

Brian Freitas

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